Another Victory for Solidarity

By Stephen Smith

The party backs down, and the world breathes easier--for now

The power struggle between Poland's newly independent labor movement and the Warsaw regime of Party Boss Stanislaw Kania has become an international suspense serial, one showdown giving way to the next, each resolved in the nick of time. From a shipyard in the Baltic seaport of Gdansk, the drama has radiated across Poland and the East bloc. Now it is affecting Western Europe and the U.S. as well.

The latest episode ended last week in another triumph for the workers. At issue was the charter of Solidarity, the umbrella group representing some 50 Polish labor unions and 10 million workers. A lower court had inserted a provision into the charter recognizing the "leading role" of the Communist Party. Claiming that its independence had been compromised, Solidarity threatened a series of strikes unless the authorities agreed to put the supremacy clause in an annex. In the predawn hours last Monday, government negotiators finally caved in to their Solidarity counterparts; later that day, the supreme court overturned the lower court's decision.

Although he apparently has Moscow's backing, Kania is dealing from a very weak hand. That became evident last week when Administration sources confirmed that Poland had asked the U.S. for $3 billion in low-interest loans over three years. A rescue mission of such magnitude is an impossibility for the lame-duck Carter Administration. But to show good faith, Secretary of State Edmund Muskie has recommended that credit guarantees for grain sales to Poland be increased from $670 million to a reported $900 million over the next year. According to British Trade Minister Cecil Parkinson, who was in Warsaw last week, Poland is also seeking new loans from West Germany, France, Italy and Britain.

Since the Soviets are notoriously paranoid about their satellites dealing with the West, Poland's request is being handled gingerly in Washington. The U.S. faces a delicate dilemma. On the one hand, the Kania government has been moderate so far and may be worth shoring up. On the other, the U.S. could find itself supporting a regime that might some day crush dissidents and the labor movement. In addition, the U.S. might be accused of meddling in Poland's internal affairs, a useful piece of propaganda for the Soviets if they ever intervene.

The West's unease seemed trifling next to the dread in Poland before the supreme court ruling. "People were afraid of something happening--chaos, confrontation, the police, a stupid move by somebody," said a Warsaw journalist. Observed a Western diplomat: "They were huddling around their radios, and trying to remember what they had heard about the events preceding the invasion of Czechoslovakia [in 1968]."

Tension began building two weeks ago, when Kania charged that the workers had "abused" their right to strike and warned of "limits we must not transgress." Party Spokesman Jozef Klasa then held an unusual briefing for a small group of Western correspondents and turned up the pressure. Said he: "The party is determined to use every-option at its disposal to avert the strike." To further drive home the party's point, a film of Soviet and Polish troops on joint maneuvers was shown on national television. "The message could not be lost on anyone," said a Foreign Ministry analyst in Bonn, noting that similar maneuvers had preceded the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia.

Still the union refused to blink. After the court announced its decision, Union Leader Lech Walesa tried to put Solidarity on a conciliatory course, describing the settlement as "a victory of common sense." Said he: "Nobody lost and nobody won." From the government's standpoint, the compromise was acceptable because it was a matter of form rather than substance. The agreement also allowed the government to turn its attention -- and, it hoped, the union's attention -- to the problem of Poland's crippled economy.

For the past decade, the government has stressed industrial investment at the expense of consumer goods. Two byproducts: a restive citizenry unhappy with shortages of everything from sugar to cooking oil and a staggering debt of $21 billion owed to the West. Last summer's strikes and the wage increases that helped end them have accelerated the economy's slide. Industrial production in the third quarter of the year was off $2.3 billion compared with 1979 output, and the 1980 trade deficit will approach $700 million.

The mining of coal is running about 7% behind projections. Blackouts are already commonplace in Warsaw, and nationwide electricity shortages are expected this winter. The harvest, government officials admit, was a "disaster." Bad weather and low price ceilings have combined to keep up to 50% of the important potato crop off the market. Said Kania: "Things are very bad indeed and there is nothing to suggest that they will be better in a month or even six months."

To re-ignite the economy, Poland's central planners must allow individual enterprises more flexibility. Also needed are labor peace and productivity gains. The authorities were plainly angling for a trade-off on the charter issue. Kania and Walesa met for the first time last Friday; the state press agency reported that they discussed contributions Solidarity could make to "the country's progress." But Solidarity, remembering government promises broken after worker riots in 1956 and 1970, has so far refused to ask its members to work harder or end their wildcat strikes. As Walesa once put it: "We will not need to be persuaded to work by means of slogans and catchphrases, as was done in the past."

The position of Solidarity militants, who have been vying with a moderate faction for control of the union, was enhanced by last week's victory. No doubt the militants will keep urging their colleagues to take uncompromising positions in upcoming negotiations over wages and access to the press. The danger is that they will push their advantage too far, with the result that hard-liners will once again take over the Communist Party. Party moderates hope to appease the unions and please Moscow, while also looking to the West for financial help. Unhappily, that is rather like a juggler tossing vials of nitroglycerine in the air.

--By Stephen Smith. Reported by Barry Kalb/Warsaw

With reporting by Barry Kalb

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