Fractious Land of Promise

By E. Graydon Carter

A murder trial obscures an infant country's solid progress

A cortege of mourners had just filed along the dusty village street and assembled inside a modest frame house for the funeral of a local official of Prime Minister Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) party. Suddenly an armed band of renegades attacked the group. A hand grenade was lobbed inside the house, and the walls were raked with a hail of automatic fire from Soviet-made AK-47s. Four of the mourners were killed; 16 were wounded.

The Shootout at Dzivarasekwa Township last week was one of the violent encounters between rival remnants of guerrilla armies that all too regularly have continued to mar the peace of independent Zimbabwe. Coming when it did, it added to the tension already surrounding the murder trial of Cabinet Minister Edgar Tekere that begins in Salisbury this week. The manner in which the trial of the radical and powerful Minister of Manpower, Planning and Development is conducted, and its eventual outcome, will be widely regarded as a crucial test of Mugabe's control over his promising, but fractious, young country. Said Sir Roy Welensky, former Prime Minister of the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland: "The world will be watching the outcome of this trial."

Tekere, one of the most prominent black nationalists in southern Africa, and seven heavily armed bodyguards were picked up in August, after his blue Jaguar was seen speeding away from a large farming estate outside Salisbury. Only minutes before, Gerald William Adams, 68, a white farm manager, had been gunned down in a daring afternoon raid, while calling for help on his emergency radio. After his arrest, Tekere was held in Chikurubi Prison for a fortnight and released on $75,000 bail. Maximum possible sentence if convicted at his trial: death by hanging.

Mugabe has been at pains to dismiss any notions that his government will also be on trial (see box). He has insisted that pure justice will be done. But no matter how the trial turns out, it seems certain to confront Mugabe with a no-win dilemma. If Tekere is convicted, it would bolster confidence in the Mugabe government's commitment to the rule of law. But a conviction would also have its hidden dangers. It would be likely to enrage Tekere's numerous and fiercely loyal guerrilla followers as well as his radical supporters within ZANU. As it is, many of those party militants regularly attack Mugabe for his moderate policies. An acquittal, on the other hand, would tend to ingratiate Mugabe with ZANU's radical wing and with the more militant guerrilla elements. But it could shatter the whites' new-found confidence in Mugabe's government.

Alarmed whites have been emigrating at a rate of up to 1,500 a month. Even those who have chosen to stay remain fearful of the 23,000 armed ex-guerrillas who have yet to be integrated into the Zimbabwe national army or the country's work force. Many point with fear at the recurring bloodshed: bombs thrown into crowded beer halls, gunfights between police and restive guerrillas, random assaults and abductions. Says a Salisbury businessman darkly: "When you've got that many people running around with guns, you're going to have some trouble. The temptation is there to go get a woman, money or food by force."

More sober appraisals, however, emphasize that the actual incidence of violence appears to be on the decline and that the country's leaders, at least, are strongly committed to controlling the lawlessness. Says Joshua Nkomo, Mugabe's former guerrilla rival and now Home Affairs Minister, of the lingering restiveness: "What is happening is what takes place after a veld fire. You see small areas where the wood is still smoldering and burning off. That's what we have in Zimbabwe today. The smolderings are burning themselves out."

Violent outbursts have also tended to obscure Mugabe's own accomplishments over the past half-year. Cool and deliberate in style as well as action, he has won high marks for the pragmatic way in which he has balanced dangerously opposed forces and has maintained his policy of national reconciliation. In foreign affairs, for example, he accomplished the delicate feat of breaking diplomatic relations with South Africa, while retaining crucial economic ties. On the domestic front, he managed to institute a minimum wage and medical aid for the poor, while keeping the support of business interests. "This man Mugabe is vital to the development of a successful state," says Welensky. "He is probably the ablest black African leader I've ever seen."

Nkomo, whose Patriotic Front Party captured just 20% of the seats in last February's election, has toned down his divisive earlier rhetoric. Says he: "We want to see the country reunited. We envision this as a nonracial society. I do not regard the white people as non-Africans. Most of them were born here. I see them as Zimbabweans contributing to a single society." Acknowledges a white businessman: "I feel a lot better now than I did two months ago because Nkomo seems to have been swung into line."

The Zimbabwe economy is surprisingly robust. After five years of negative real growth, it is expected to surge by about 4% this year and 6% to 7% next year. Inflation, pegged at 9.6%, is low by Third World standards. The trade balance has only a slight deficit. Despite a two-year drought, food supplies are ample. The gold, copper, tungsten and chromium mines are gradually being brought up to full capacity. Says a senior Western diplomat: "Zimbabwe has everything going for it. It has a tripod economy -- agriculture, minerals and manufacturing. It's the opposite of a basket-case country. It's a cornucopia."

But if Zimbabwe is to continue to shift from violence to peaceful prosperity, it must first stem the exodus of skilled and semiskilled whites. Then it must drum up increased foreign aid. Mugabe has indicated that Zimbabwe will need at least $300 million for reconstruction over the next three years and upwards of $5 billion to effect complete recovery. He has paid visits to the U.S., Europe,

China and North Korea seeking quick-fix aid. Washington has already managed to come up with $27 million on relatively short notice. Britain has pledged $247.2 million over the next three years.

But Mugabe is still far short of his goal.

Says one southern African political commentator: "Surely Western governments do not seriously propose to sit back and wait for Zimbabwe to become stable while withholding the very aid that might ensure stability."

By E. Graydon Carter.

Reported by Marsh Clark/ Salisbury

With reporting by Marsh Clark

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