Now, a Few Words in Closing

By WALTER ISAACSON

On balance, Reagan benefits from the Big Debate

It has been a long march from the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire, from the time when George Bush had the "Big Mo" and Ted Kennedy seemed to have the Democratic nomination for the asking, even from the balloons and ballyhoo of Cobo Hall and Madison Square Garden. As Campaign '80 finally and mercifully came down to a matter of days, the end at last in sight, two factors loomed as potentially decisive. One was the revival of the hostage drama, the other the debate between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter. Both, coming so late in the game, threatened an unwise and disproportionate impact on Election Day.

There were only a thousand spectators in Cleveland's Music Hall, but more than 100 million people watched the 90-minute debate. The President, tightly wound and always on the offensive, scored the most points on substance; Reagan, with a relaxed, reassuring demeanor that belied the President's portrayal of him as dangerous, came out ahead on style. When at the end, Reagan bounded 15 ft. to Carter's lectern to shake hands, both men were ready to take comfort, if not complete satisfaction, from their efforts.

Said Reagan afterward: "I've examined myself, and I can't find any wounds." That, perhaps, was the biggest victory. Reagan was the challenger, who by credibly debating the incumbent could dispel lingering doubts about whether he was up to the job of President. Said Senior Adviser James Baker: "We only needed a draw to win." Reagan, in fact, did better than that. Said Carter Pollster Patrick Caddell: "It seems basically a wash, with maybe a slight edge for Reagan."

Reagan Pollster Richard Wirthlin said his postdebate sampling of viewers found Reagan to have won by 45% to 34%. Independent polls done for CBS News and the Associated Press supported those findings: CBS gave it to Reagan 44% to 36%, the A.P. 46% to 34%. On perhaps the most important impact of the debate, its effect on those voters who had not previously made up their minds, the two polls diverged. CBS found Reagan picking up the undecided by 2 to 1, the A.P. showed the candidates splitting them evenly.

The debate, while failing to bring out new positions of either man on the issues, provided a clear contrast between their personalities and basic beliefs. Reagan was tense at first, but he soon regained his mellifluous stage presence. Asked whether he was affected by sharing a podium with the President, Reagan quipped: "No, not at all. I've been on the same stage with John Wayne."

Both candidates used the questions as excuses to pull out timetested stump speech material. For example, when asked about international terrorists Carter included a peroration on the dangers of nuclear proliferation. He seemed to have a mental list of topics he was going to get in, no matter the question or Reagan's response. The President was constantly on the attack with charges that Reagan's views on foreign policy and nuclear arms were reckless. But the Republican proved adept at delivering aw-shucks parries to Carter's thrusts. Indeed, Reagan had carefully rehearsed them before the debate in the garage of his rented Virginia estate, with Republican Representative David Stockman of Michigan playing Carter's role. As Stockman zinged charges, Reagan tried out two or three retorts before settling on the one that he used most effectively. When Carter accused him of opposing Medicare, Reagan, who did indeed contend that medical care for the aged would be better left in the hands of private insurers, acted as if Carter had again misstated his record. The ex-actor gave a bemused smile, cocked his head to the side and murmured: "There you go again."

There were a few other memorable moments. One was when Carter said that he had asked Daughter Amy, 13, "what the most important issue was." Her answer: "Nuclear weaponry and the control of nuclear arms." Later in the week, when Reagan in Fort Worth declared that Carter acts "as if someone else was in charge of the country the last four years," several people in the audience chorused: "Amy! Amy!" Carter made only one conscious attempt at humor. When asked about his opponent's weaknesses, he poked fun at his own campaign excesses: "Reluctant as I am to say anything critical about Governor Reagan, I'll try to answer your question."

Carter scored many of his points on what his aides call the war-and-peace issue. He cited Reagan's "disturbing and dangerous" pattern of opposing all arms-control agreements, from the 1963 ban on nuclear tests in the atmosphere to SALT II. Carter, however, passed up the opportunity to use the forum for a ringing defense of SALT II's merits. Reagan responded by criticizing SALT II, but also promised to sit down with the Soviets for "as long as it takes" to get a real reduction in nuclear arms. He misleadingly denied Carter's claims that he had said he would "scrap" SALT II, that the U.S. should seek nuclear "superiority" and that nonproliferation is "none of our business." But he failed to make what could have been his most telling point: asking Carter why, if SALT II was so critical, had Carter done nothing for almost a year to get it passed.

On domestic policy, Carter avoided politically uncomfortable facts such as the current inflation rate, which he cited as 7%, using this year's third-quarter average, and which Reagan put at 12%, the rate in September, the latest available monthly figure. (The Administration also did not disclose the fiscal 1980 budget deficit of $59 million, the second highest in history, until after the debate.) Citing Reagan's proposed personal income tax cut of 30% over three years, Carter warned that either Government spending would have to be cut by $ 130 billion--21 % of the current federal budget--or the nation would face runaway inflation. Reagan, who at one point likened Carter to a "witch doctor," fell back on rhetoric: "Why is it inflationary to let the people keep more of their money and spend it the way they'd like, and it isn't inflationary to let [the President] take that money and spend it the way he wants?"

A question on the Social Security system revived one of the recurring issues of the campaign. Charged Carter: "Although Governor Reagan has changed his position lately, on four different occasions he has advocated making Social Security a voluntary system, which would in effect very quickly bankrupt it." In fact, Reagan years ago did suggest that the system be voluntary, but he has lately dropped the notion.

For all his predebate practice and coaching, Reagan did not entirely escape trouble. The most embarrassing instance came when he began to answer a question about racial tension, saying: "When I was young, and when this country didn't even know it had a racial problem ..." What he presumably was referring to was the time before the 1954 Supreme Court decision on school desegregation, the rise of the civil rights movement and America's national efforts to redress racial inequality and lack of opportunity. But it was not well put, and Carter quickly riposted that those who suffered discrmination "certainly knew we had a race problem." Carter made one verbal slip: he thanked the residents of Ohio for being hospitable "during these last few hours in my life," causing some jocular aides to wonder if he was about to fall on his sword. Independent Candidate John Anderson was not invited to the debate but voiced his views on a malfunctioning hookup of Cable News Network, joking that he felt "inadequate to compete with little Amy or a witch doctor."

Hardly had the microphones been turned off in Cleveland than both candidates encountered some last-minute unpleasantness. Much to the Carter camp's chagrin, a critical report by Michael Shaheen, head of the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility, on the department's investigation of Brother Billy's dealings with Libya, leaked out. Three times last month, the report says, Carter canceled scheduled interviews with department lawyers. The White House also has been reluctant to hand over requested documents. The report criticizes Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti for "dissembling" at a press conference at which he denied discussing the investigation with the White House.

The Reagan Reagan campaign suffered embarrassment from the forced resignation of its chief foreign affairs adviser, Richard Allen, after the Wall Street Journal detailed a series of lucrative deals that Allen had made as a private consultant from 1970 to 1972. The article implied that in making them, Allen had improperly benefited from his position as a middle-level adviser in the White House under President Nixon. The newspaper also charged that he had leaked secret information about White House deliberations on U.S. export policies to a Japanese business associate. Damaging reports about Allen have been circulating in Washington and among Reagan's entourage for some time -- all denied by Allen -- but the candidate's top aides delayed acting until it was clear that Reagan was being hurt by the disclosures.

Still the week's political events were overshadowed by the fact that there had been a presidential debate at last. Although neither man said anything particularly new or revealing, more Americans than ever before were able to get a sense of the two contenders, a feel for what they believe, and insights into their underlying personalities. To that extent it summed up the flawed campaign more fairly than many had feared might turn out to be the case. For those tuning into the election for the first time, what they saw was basically what the rest the electorate has been getting all along.

-- By Walter Isaacson,

Reported by Laurence I. Barrett with Reagan and Christopher Ogden with Carter

With reporting by Laurence I. Barrett, Reagan, Christopher Ogden, Carter

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