The polls of the nation's popular vote track the tides moving in a presidential election, but the race is really segmented into 51 parts--the states and the District of Columbia--from which the winner must assemble the 270 electoral votes to put him in the White House. As the campaign began in earnest on Labor Day, TIME asked the Reagan and Carter camps to compile battle maps of how each sized up its prospects; they were published in the Sept. 15 issue. As the finish line nears, these maps show how it looks to each side today.

At first glance, a comparison might seem to show a Republican drift. In September, the Reagan camp counted states with 130 electoral votes as strong for their candidate; now they tally states with 145 votes. Initially, Carterites figured states with 98 electoral votes strong for Carter; now they claim only 91.

But a close examination of the leaning and too-close-to-call states puts things in ar more complicated perspective. In the critical Big Eight states, Reagan's followers rate California, the biggest prize of all, as strong for their candidate; but Carter's aides will concede only that it is leaning toward its former Governor. Both sides consider New York to be leaning to Carter. Each camp believes Illinois to be leaning toward its candidate. Texas and Florida are thought by the Republicans to be leaning toward Reagan, but the Democrats rate both as tossups. And both camps are in complete agreement on Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan: all are too close to call.

The Republicans claim every state west of the Mississippi River as either strong for or leaning toward Reagan. In the South, the Democrats scent possibilities in Texas and Florida, while the Republicans hope to crack Carter's supposed bastions in Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky and South Carolina.

There are some strange anomalies. The Republicans class Iowa as only leaning toward their candidate, but the Democrats consider the state strong Reagan. Returning the favor, the Republicans in September rated Massachusetts as strong Carter, while the Democrats thought it was only tending their way. Only now do the Carterites concede that, yes, the Bay State is strong for the President.

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