Crowing Tories

By Bonnie Angela

A reprieve for the Iron Lady

For Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, the vicious struggle between left and right that erupted at the Labor Party's annual conference in Blackpool could not have been better timed. The growing discontent within her own party and even her own Cabinet was muted as the Tories, meeting last week in the seaside resort of Brighton, closed ranks to crow over their bitterly divided opposition. Exhorted Thatcher: "Let Labor's Orwellian nightmare of the left be a spur for us to rebuild the fortunes of this free nation."

Still, beneath the well-orchestrated harmony and smooth avoidance of controversial votes, pressures were mounting on Thatcher to soften her rigid monetarism as Britain slips deeper into recession. After 17 months in office, the Thatcher government's economic policies were being sharply attacked, not just by trade-union leaders but by industrial managers as well.

Britain's economic statistics are grim. Unemployment is above 2 million, roughly 8.4% of the work force, and rising sharply. More than 7,000 firms are expected to go under this year. Inflation, while slowing down from a 1980 high of 21% in July, stands at 16.3%. Manufacturing output is down, interest rates are at 16%, and the money supply, crucial to the monetarist creed, has exceeded targeted limits by more than a third. "The government's entire economic strategy faces a crisis of credibility," charged the London Times. "The private sector, which she pledged to revitalize, is suffering, while the public sector, her target for attack, is hardly affected."

Opposition to Thatcher's policies had been growing steadily--until the Labor Party conference. Before, every major poll showed Labor leading the Tories by ten to eleven points. Afterward, a Gallup poll indicated Labor's lead had dropped to three points in reaction to the bitter fracas. Tory analysts take this to be only a temporary reprieve. Says M.P. Peter Tapsell, a respected Tory backbencher: "We will make a bad mistake if we assume that Labor's shambles at Blackpool guarantee us victory at the next general election [in 1984]. Electorates turn out governments, not oppositions. If we fail to get the economy right, the voters aren't likely to care all that much whether they replace us with a government led by Denis Healey or Tony Benn." Healey represents Labor's moderates, Benn its far left.

In the barnlike Brighton Center on the famous old seafront, Thatcher was cheered ecstatically by the 5,000 delegates, as Tory left and right put aside their differences. The right, if it held sway, would have her cut public spending much more severely. The government has already cut nearly $20 billion from public spending and is planning to bite deeply again next year. Sir Raymond Pennock, spokesman for the Confederation of British Industry, argued in a long meeting with Thatcher that "industry has got itself efficient. It has shouldered massive reduction in jobs. Government must do the same."

The Tory left has never been comfortable with Thatcher's zest for monetarism, meaning the strict regulation of a nation's money supply as the key to economic revival. It is beginning to press for more flexibility and compassion. Employment Secretary James Prior warned the conference against endorsing the harsh anti-union stance favored by some rightist Tories. "It makes no sense," he said, "to act as though we are taking part in the Charge of the Light Brigade."

At the closing session, Thatcher was defiant: "We shall not be diverted from our course. To those waiting for a U-turn, I have only this to say. You turn if you want to--the lady's not for turning!" Despite the cheers on both sides of the party, there is anxiety that Thatcher may not be able to turn around the economic woes by election time. Ahead this winter is an unavoidable showdown between the government and public service workers over pay increases that will severely test her policies. If that confrontation goes badly--and some militant union leaders have declared their intention to force an industrial crisis--it will take more than an ideological split in the Labor Party to divert the full blast of both public opinion and party pressure on Britain's Iron Lady. --By Bonnie Angelo/London

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