Mixed Signals from Iran

And it is hard to keep the hostages off the hustings

Deep in the heart of Texas, President Carter last week again raised, as he had on the morn of the Wisconsin and Kansas primaries, false hopes about a largely latent campaign issue: the fate of the hostages in Iran. The Iranians and their new government, said Carter in Corpus Christi, "are making statements that might very well lead to a resolution of this problem in the future."

But that very day, the optimistic tone of the President's remarks was contradicted by Secretary of State Edmund Muskie. Said he: "It would be a mistake to raise expectations based on any specific statements." Carter soon backtracked. At his press conference, he said, "I do not predict an early resolution of the issue."

Whatever optimism was warranted came from a change in the dynamics of the situation in Tehran that could--somehow, some day--lead to release of the 52 American hostages. For one thing, the power struggle is virtually over. The militant clerics appear to have won, and the U.S. at least knows with whom it must deal. For another, Iran finally has a government capable, at least in theory, of making decisions, although that was not readily apparent from the chaos in the long-awaited Majlis (parliament) debate last week. Finally, there are signs that the U.S. has begun more actively seeking a settlement, beginning with a conciliatory plea sent by Muskie last month to Prime Minister Mohammed Ali Raja'i.

Against this background, the Administration was still trying to assess a speech by the Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini two weeks ago, in which he listed conditions for the hostages' release without demanding an apology by the U.S. for its past conduct in Iran. Some American officials speculated that Khomeini dropped the demand so that his supporters could reinstate the issue as a bargaining tactic. Others felt that Khomeini may simply have forgotten to mention the point. Confessed one State Department analyst: "The man continues to mystify us."

In Tehran, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaker of the Majlis, seemed to be correcting the Ayatullah's omission by flatly declaring: "The U.S. must condemn its past crimes against the people of Iran." President Carter, just as flatly, responded: "The U.S. is not going to apologize." But Carter added that he had no objection to the Iranians airing their grievances at a legitimate forum, such as might be provided by the U.N. Last week President Abolhassan Banisadr revealed that the U.S. had again proposed such an inquiry. In addition, word leaked out that the State Department has been putting together a massive documentation of U.S. involvement in Iran for a possible hearing.

Meanwhile, in scenes of wild confusion, the Majlis decided to form a commission to study the fate of the hostages. Discussion over the powers of such a commission degenerated into a free-for-all denunciation of the U.S.

The State Department hopes the ruling clerics now realize that they must settle the hostage problem so they can better deal with Iran's soaring 80% inflation rate, sagging economy, foreign exchange shortage and border war with Iraq. Solving the crisis, says one Khomeini aide, "is something most of them want to do and none wishes to be seen doing." But despite the earlier flurry of optimistic headlines, the hostage crisis still seems to be a long way from being settled.

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