A Rebellion Is Sparked

By Frank B. Merrick

Would sticking with Jimmy mean "walking the plank "?

From the marble halls of Congress to the dingiest political clubhouses in precincts across the country, there was nervous talk among Democrats last week about whether Jimmy Carter really should be the party's presidential nominee. Carter was far behind Ronald Reagan in the presidential sweepstakes before last week's stream of embarrassments. Now Mervin Field, an influential California pollster, has gone so far as to predict that the next nationwide surveys may show the President running an astonishing third, behind both Reagan and Independent John Anderson. Said Field: "The question facing the Democratic delegates as they go to the convention is whether they want to walk the plank with Jimmy Carter."

That probably overstates the case, and Carter still has the support of most of the leaders and power brokers of the Democratic Party, the kind of experienced operators that any rival to the President would need to rally in order to organize a coup. Senator Wendell Ford, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, drew on the homespun philosophy of his native Kentucky to counsel caution. Said he: "We have a saying: Don't overrun the rabbit."

But while the President retained control, many Democrats were increasingly fearful that his poor handling of Billy's irresponsible ventures might critically tarnish him with voters. Warned Donald Fowler, a Democratic national committeeman from South Carolina: "With this public mood, everybody is willing to believe the worst about any politician."

The most impressive evidence of a nascent revolt came in Washington, where 40 Democratic members of the House of Representatives, including a number of nationally known liberals, met to talk about ways of throwing open the convention so that it could nominate someone other than Carter or Senator Edward Kennedy. The organizers of the meeting included Thomas Downey of New York, a Carter supporter, and Toby Moffett of Connecticut, a Kennedy backer. Among those who attended were Don Edwards of California, Patricia Schroeder of Colorado, Barbara Mikulski of Maryland and three leading black Representatives: Shirley Chisholm of New York, John Conyers of Michigan and Ronald Dellums of California.

The two most often mentioned alternatives to Carter and Kennedy were Vice President Walter Mondale and Secretary of State Edmund Muskie. One Senator, a well-known backer of Carter, reported "a movement building for Fritz Mondale in the Senate." There was also some talk of drafting Washington Senator Henry (Scoop) Jackson to give the ticket conservative balance. Of the choices, Muskie might be the most attractive because he has broad appeal and would not have to support the Carter Administration on the campaign trail--an unenviable problem that would confront Mondale.

A veteran Democratic Congressman who backs Carter scornfully described the gathering of 40 as "bedwetters," but in truth, Democrats had good reason to be nervous. An ABC News-Harris Survey completed early last week showed that the respondents favored a Republican-dominated House of Representatives, 47% to 43%. Maryland Congressman Michael Barnes, who acted as spokesman for the worried congressional group, insisted that his colleagues were not solely bent on self-preservation. Said he: "The prospect of a Reagan presidency is sufficiently appalling that we feel a responsibility to sit down and figure out what we can do to forestall it."

Despite the start of talk about Mondale or Muskie, the chief and immediate beneficiary of the dump-Carter sentiment was, of course, Ted Kennedy. His aides insisted he would do nothing to take advantage of Carter's troubles with Billy. But Kennedy spent much of his time last week at the telephone, reminding wavering Carter delegates about Reagan's impressive performance at the Republican National Convention and his strong standing in the polls.

At a three-hour meeting, requested by the White House, top Carter political aides failed to persuade their counterparts in the Kennedy campaign that he should end his challenge for the nomination. Said Kennedy Political Director Paul Kirk: "No concessions were made. Senator Kennedy is in the race all the way." His race remains very uphill. Kennedy trails Carter in delegates, 1,982 to 1,235, with only 1,666 needed to win. To have a chance, the Senator must persuade the delegates to agree to free themselves from a proposed convention rule that would bind them on the first ballot to vote for the candidate they were chosen to support in state primaries or caucuses. Said Rick Stearns, who coordinates Kennedy's delegate wooing: "If Carter's people succeed in forcing that rule through, I can't see any way, short of armed insurrection, that Carter won't be the nominee."

Carter strategists insist that so far Kennedy has not won over any of the President's 2,500 delegates and alternates. Campaign Research Chief Martin Franks says optimistically, "Our delegates are true believers." The question is whether the Carterites will stay true blue for the two weeks before the convention if the bad news continues to flow. Signs of uneasiness in the ranks were beginning to filter into the White House. Says one top aide, who is phoned by contacts all over the nation: "We're not getting any calls specifically saying, 'Oh, God, this is terrible,' but they're wondering what's going on and it comes up in the course of just about every conversation."

Although he is disturbed about the clamor over his brother, the President is convinced the uproar will fade away. Last week he was mulling over the details of the convention -- who should nominate him, who should give the seconding speeches. The idea that his nomination was in danger was far from his mind, aides asserted. They found this both reassuring and curious.

With reporting by Eileen Shields, Richard Hornik

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