Fastest Game in Town

Maneuvering to get credit--or dodge blame--for a tax cut may not like the headlines you read, Mr. President. But if we hadn't acted, you'd have seen headlines you liked worse."

That blunt admonition to Jimmy Carter was delivered last week by Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd. The West Virginian was referring to his abrupt decision the week before to flout White House policy by suddenly endorsing a tax cut for next year. Not only had Byrd failed to tell the President he was going to change the party line and advocate a tax cut, he had not notified House Speaker Tip O'Neill. Exclaimed one angry House Democratic leader last week: "The Senate panicked." Noted another Democratic Representative: "It's quite a play the Senators pulled. They stole a march on the President too." House Rules Committee Chairman Richard Boiling said scornfully that Byrd's action was "proof of how desperately upset the Democrats are. This looks like one of those elections when the Democrats are terrified and the Republicans sense the kill."

Byrd's confident declaration to the President about how he had forestalled hostile headlines for the party was delivered at a breakfast held by Carter at the White House; it included as guests both the leadership of the Senate and of the House. The discussion was a revealing political confrontation between congressional leaders, acutely jealous of their powers and prerogatives, as they struggled with a tax bill that was bound to have considerable political repercussions in an election year.

One of the angriest men at the breakfast was Oregon's Al Ullman, head of the

House Ways and Means Committee, which is responsible for drafting tax legislation. Only days before Byrd's promise of a quick tax cut, Ullman had said that his committee would not hold tax hearings until January at the earliest. More important, argued Ullman, was the fact that Byrd had usurped one of the House's most cherished constitutional rights, the provision in Article I declaring that "all bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives." Snapped Ullman: "We're the people's House. The basic decisions on tax policy ought to come from us. We're going to insist that the basics be followed."

While the President acted as a benign moderator, Byrd listened quietly to the criticism and then defended his controversial action. He recalled that the G.O.P., without warning, had tried to attach a $36 billion tax cut advocated by Ronald Reagan to a bill raising the national debt limit. When Byrd and Senate Whip Alan Cranston took a quick head count, they concluded that the Republican measure might attract enough Democrats to pass. Voting against a tax slash, in fact, would be particularly risky to the 22 Democrats up for re-election this November. Byrd faced the sudden and cold reality that the Senate, supposedly controlled by Democrats, 59 to 41, was about to pass a politically attractive tax cut sponsored by none other than the man who seemed bound to become the G.O.P. nominee.

Byrd's snap decision was to mobilize his forces against the G.O.P. ploy by promising them a similar measure of their own. Said Byrd at the breakfast: "If they were not offered an alternative, they would vote for the Republican measure." White House Press Secretary Jody Powell reluctantly concurred, saying later that "you don't put raw meat in front of these people and not expect them to eat it." And there had been no time to lose, added Byrd, because he had to push the new debt-ceiling bill through Congress. Said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Fritz Rollings to Byrd: "Politically, thank God you acted." Mollified by Byrd's explanation, most of the participants at the meeting left the White House smiling.

What was left unresolved was the Democrats' election-year tax strategy. Carter refused to commit himself to a tax break and told the White House gathering that "we are skeptical of the chances for responsible action under election pressure." He intends to delay his decision at least until he sees the economic analysis in his midyear budget review to be delivered to Congress on July 21.

Senate Democrats, however, are itching to start work. Louisiana's Russell Long, head of the Finance Committee, plans to convene hearings on July 23. Said he: "We are going to write a tax-reduction law with a cut somewhere between $20 billion and $45 billion. The effective date will be Jan. 1, 1981." Byrd pledges that the Senate will have a tax bill on the floor right after Labor Day.

Although Ullman remains reluctant to cut taxes, he too intends to hold hearings late this month. "We've got to move," acknowledges one Democratic leader. But House Democrats hope to delay voting until after the election, and preferably not until next year. Says Robert Giaimo, chairman of the House Budget Committee: "I'd hate to see us legislate on taxes a month or two before the elections. It's the worst possible time."

Fearing that a major tax cut would hurt the fight against inflation, House leaders are resolved to go slowly. Says O'Neill: "I don't hear any hue and cry for a cut." Senator Long is talking about broad reductions that would help middle-income families, but O'Neill and others are thinking of a "tightly targeted" bill aimed at stimulating production by improving industry's depreciation deductions for investments in new equipment.

Until the Democrats hammer out their strategy, the Republicans retain the initiative and seem prepared to keep proposing the Reagan tax cut as an amendment to every major fiscal measure. They did so again last week when they tried to attach it to a Senate bill concerning the Airport and Airway Trust Fund; they lost 52 to 33, once more on a nearly strict party-line vote. Though the G.O.P. expects to keep on losing the head counts, it is enjoying making the Democrats squirm. Promised New York's Barber Conable, the ranking Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee: "We're going to keep the pressure on."

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