Looking to a Precarious Future

The crackdown in Cape Town and Soweto was harsh even by South African standards. But the ruling white "tribe," the Afrikaners, has long been preoccupied with the problems of surviving at the tip of a hostile continent, and today it is more nervous than ever. The neighboring state of Rhodesia has become black-ruled Zimbabwe, and the South African-administered territory of Namibia (South West Africa) is in transition toward some form of black majority rule. Gerrit Viljoen, 53, who is both head of the Broederbond, the powerful and secretive society of ranking Afrikanerdom, and Pretoria's administrator general for Namibia, talked with TIME Johannesburg Bureau Chief William McWhirter about the effect of these turbulent political changes on South Africa's future. Excerpts:

On Zimbabwe. South Africa has been pretty pragmatic about governments whose basic philosophy or even methodology it does not like, as in the case of Mozambique. That is true in Zimbabwe as well. The goal is to aim at the maximum possible cooperation, interchange, even interdependence, without getting involved with the differing political philosophies. There are some in South Africa who have been critical of even this approach--a diplomacy based on transport, food and energy. But I think the [goal of] interaction is generally accepted because South Africa obviously cannot exist in isolation.

On Zimbabwe's Prime Minister, former Guerrilla Leader Robert Mugabe. Whether Mugabe will succeed in taming his wilder horses and making true his first promises of reasonable policies toward whites and other systems will have a considerable influence on us. If he cannot control his more extreme collaborators, then obviously there will be serious problems. The extent to which he might associate himself with dissident movements trying to subvert the South African government, either from outside or inside, is going to be of very great importance. But it would obviously be unwise and foolish of South Africa to sponsor a subversive action against Mugabe. This [type of suggestion] is merely the sort of militant noise that Mugabe apparently believes would favorably affect his image.

On Namibia. For South Africa to maintain a presence in Namibia as long as we are tolerated is accepted here as being in our strategic, military and psychological interest. But I do not think South Africa would fight to remain in Namibia at all costs. If, through accepted democratic processes, Namibia should be put under a less friendly government, this would be against the interests of South Africa, but we would have to accept it.

On Namibia's guerrilla movement, the South West African Peoples Organization.

SWAPO is different from Mugabe, even though one cannot really assess these things beforehand. [SWAPO President Sam] Nujoma has not got the intellectual equipment that Mugabe and his closer associates have. SWAPO and Nujoma, as far as one can judge, are more the clients of the Soviets than Mugabe ever was. I do not think a SWAPO victory would be in the best interests of Namibia. It would certainly create problems for South Africa. But I believe South Africa would still act wisely [and try to] work out a pragmatic policy of mutual coexistence with Namibia.

On South Africa's future. No arrangement introducing a black majority government over the whites will be accepted voluntarily or peacefully by the Afrikaners--not, at least, at the present stage of cultural differentiation between black and white in South Africa. If South African whites become frustrated in their efforts to ensure their own political security by means of fair and reasonable offers of accommodation to the other groups, it might give them little option except to ensure their political survival by more authoritarian means. But they would find it hard to live long with authoritarianism in light of the democratic tradition and spirit they possess, at least among themselves.

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