Squalls Among the Democrats

A few believe Carter cannot win--and want an alternative

Even as Jimmy Carter was sweeping toward renomination, there was grumbling last week among Democrats about him as their candidate. They are worried about the latest polls, which show Ronald Reagan leading Carter by up to nine percentage points; and they fear that Carter may not be able to recover by November because of the public's discontent over the economy and foreign policy.

The loudest complaints were voiced by Democratic Governor Hugh Carey of New York. He urged Carter and Senator Edward Kennedy to release their delegates to permit a "totally open convention." Democratic Senator Daniel Moynihan of New York agreed. Said he: "To choose between the two of them [Carter and Kennedy] is hardly going to help us put together a ticket that has a chance to win in November." Other Democrats have talked wistfully, but unrealistically, of drafting Vice President Walter Mondale. Democratic Senator Henry ("Scoop") Jackson of Washington, who was soundly trounced in the 1976 presidential primaries, has claimed that "people come up to me almost every day and say, 'I wish you were running.' "

The talk of an open convention infuriates Carter's aides. "A bizarre suggestion at best," said Tim Kraft, coordinator of the President's field campaign. Scoffed New York Lieutenant Governor Mario Cuomo, a rival of Carey's and supporter of Carter's: "It sounds as though Carey is saying that if you get to the eighth inning and you don't like the score, you should change the rules."

Indeed, changing the rules is just what Kennedy's strategists have in mind. They realize it is now virtually impossible for him to win enough of the remaining delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot. That would require him to win about 80% of the vote on June 3, when Democrats in eight states will choose 696 delegates, almost one-fifth of those who will go to the convention in August.

Kennedy hopes to do well enough in the final primaries to demonstrate to the party that only he can win in November. Then, according to scenario, Kennedy partisans will persuade the delegates at the convention to change Rule 11H, which requires delegates pledged to a candidate to vote for that candidate on the first ballot. This would enable defectors from Carter to abstain on the first ballot or to vote for Kennedy. Said Paul Kirk, political director of the Kennedy campaign: "Most of these delegates are free and independent, thinking citizens who care about the party and its direction."

But the Kennedy strategy is unlikely to work. Rule 11H also empowers a candidate to replace wavering delegates with staunch supporters. To identify potential defectors, about 75 Carter supporters are now researching the backgrounds of all Carter delegates. In addition, staffers phone the delegates regularly to encourage them to stay loyal. Said Tom Donilon, a Carter campaign aide: "There is no evidence of defections anywhere. But we are not taking any chances."

As he campaigned in Maryland last week, Kennedy denied he was trying to woo away Carter delegates. Said Kennedy of Carter's aides: "I don't understand what they are so worried about." The Senator also repeated his intention to stay in the race right up to the convention roll call, if only to ensure that he will have a major influence on the party's platform. Declared Kennedy: "I intend to do everything I possibly can to make sure the Democratic Party is going to shape solutions to deal effectively [with social and economic issues]." But he insisted that he does not contemplate losing the nomination. Said he: "I remember learning at an early age, at my father's knee, that if you are thinking of coming in second, you are never going to come in first."

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