The End Game For Reagan

He has one eye on the fall

One of Ronald Reagan's most difficult problems last week was acting as though he were still in a race for the Republican presidential nomination. The Californian continued to pile up delegates in primaries, swamping George Bush in Indiana, North Carolina and Tennessee; Bush carried only the District of Columbia, where Reagan was not on the ballot. Altogether the Californian won more than 100 of the 140 delegates at stake, raising his total to about 850, to only 180 for Bush. Reagan needs only about 150 more delegates to be assured of being nominated on the first ballot at the convention, and he could win them before the concluding round of primaries on June 3. Said Reagan, joshing coyly with reporters: "It will be very difficult for me to say any more that I'm cautiously optimistic. I'm just optimistic."

Bush's strategy now amounts to no more than a desperate hope that he can sweep all the remaining primaries in major states--Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon and Reagan's native California--and that the shock of such a wholesale upset would cause delegates already committed to Reagan to switch to Bush. Nonetheless, Bush refuses to drop out. In fact, last week he named former Watergate Special Prosecutor Leon Jaworski to monitor spending by independent conservative campaign committees that help Reagan. Bush is not charging that there has been any illegal activity, but wants Jaworski to watch for any signs that there might be.

To Reagan's staff, the Bush campaign has dwindled from a challenge to a minor irritant. Says Reagan Campaign Manager William Casey: "Bush is a drain on our time and attention." But for the sake of party unity in the fall, Reagan refuses to put pressure on Bush to quit. Says Reagan: "That's a decision only he can make."

Reagan's staffers would prefer to be working full time on their most urgent task: preparing for the campaign against Jimmy Carter. For example, Reagan's personal campaign organization eventually must be merged with the Republican Party apparatus in Washington and in the 50 states, but that cannot be completed as long as the nomination is still being contested. Nevertheless, Reagan's men are making some planning progress. They have been in touch with the Republican National Committee, which last week chose former President Gerald Ford to make a convention speech on opening night. Reagan and his aides believe that a plea for the party to close ranks will have strong impact coming from the man who beat Reagan in the bitter 1976 campaign.

Reagan's aides are also beginning to make serious plans for selection of a vice-presidential candidate. They have agreed on one prime qualification: because of Reagan's age (69), the choice must be someone whom voters would take seriously as a potential President. No formal "short list" has been drawn up, but some staffers say that when one is, it will probably include Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker and Bush, whose primary victories in Massachussetts and Pennsylvania demonstrated strength in the industrial Northeast that Reagan could use.

Reagan must also refine his main themes for the fall campaign, but he is having some trouble doing so. He was supposed to lay out a comprehensive economic policy in a speech last Friday, but after reading a draft prepared by aides, he put off that effort and huddled again with his advisers. The key issue is how deep a tax cut Reagan should advocate. During the primaries he has talked of slashing income tax rates 30% over three years. At times he has sounded as though he thought the idea is an economic cureall, prompting Bush to attack him for practicing "voodoo economics." Bush contends that so drastic a slash would worsen inflation by ballooning the federal deficit.

Some of Reagan's senior economic advisers are uneasy about Reagan's plan for similar reasons. They agree that taxes must be cut, but would like the 30% figure, if it is retained at all, to be considered a goal rather than a hard-and-fast commitment. The aides also are giving him conflicting advice on the timing of a tax cut and how it should be coordinated with other Reagan policies. If Reagan has made up his own mind, he has not disclosed his decision even to his own aides Says one: "He expresses himself in speech paragraphs rather than ideas, even when he is talking privately."

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