Ford: Ready to Tee Off?

In the wake of New Hampshire, there is li little doubt that for mer President Gerald Ford is on the verge of deciding whether to plunge into the race for the Republican nomination. It is also clear that if he is to make his momentous move, he must do so in two or three weeks. Increasingly, some party pros are betting that Ford will decide to run. In a conversation with TIME last week, Ford himself made it plain that his candidacy was very possible.

Fit, tanned and outwardly relaxed as he ponders the campaign in his Palm Springs-area home, Ford looks eager to join the action. His tele phone jangles repeatedly with calls from old political cronies urging him to announce his candidacy as their best hope of stopping Ron ald Reagan. Apart from the lingering animosity from his close personal fight with Reagan in 1976, Ford shares the fears of many Republican leaders that Reagan could not win if the Democrats renominate President Carter. He doubts that the other Republicans in the race could win either.

Ford's supporters, on the other hand, feel that his record in the presidency would serve him well in a campaign against Carter. He could point to his reduction of inflation, his advocacy of more funds for defense, and the consistency of his foreign policy under Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Contends Bob Hughes, a longtime Ford supporter in Ohio and G.O.P. chairman in Cleveland: "The American people this time are either going to vote for an incumbent President or someone who has been President."

Nor is all the telephoning incoming to Ford. On the morning after the New Hamp shire primary, Hughes got a call from Palm Springs. It was Bob Barrett, one of Ford's top aides, who uncommitted?" Says asked simply: Hughes: "I "Are told you him still that I was sitting tight." Hughes is convinced that Ford will announce his candidacy shortly.

The endorsement of several Midwest Republican Governors, including Ohio's James Rhodes, Michigan's William Milliken, Illinois' Jim Thompson, Wisconsin's Lee Dreyfus and Indiana's Otis Bowen, could well follow. Already, some Ford backers are prepared to finance a national advertising campaign to promote his candidacy. Declared Chicago Republican Chairman Lou Kasper enthusiastically: "Ninety-eight percent of the Republican politicians I know would be for Jerry Ford if he runs. And I think he will run."

Why the new urgency about a Ford decision? Foremost is the possibility of a party rush toward Reagan in the glow of his New Hampshire victory. While Ford has talked in the past of waiting for a potential deadlock at the nominating convention, many of the party's pros consider that most unlikely. They also note that the filing deadlines for remaining key primary elections are either past or imminent. Nevertheless, if Ford were to start filing this week in all primaries still open, he would have a chance to win 729, or 36%, of the 1,994 national convention delegates. In addition, more than 400 other delegates are yet to be chosen in state caucuses or state conventions.

In practical terms, the final date for Ford to become a serious primary campaign challenger is March 21, the deadline for both the California primary, which will select 168 delegates, and Michigan, where home-state Republicans presumably would give Ford a big share of their 82 delegates. Republicans partial to Ford concede that Reagan would be a favorite in California, but they are fighting the state party's rule that awards all 168 delegates to the one candidate who tops the primary vote. They want to give Ford a shot at a share of that large chunk of delegates.

Not even Ford's most ardent supporters believe he could enter now and get enough of the remaining delegates to win outright on the convention's first ballot. Their strategy apparently would be to try to gain enough delegates to deny anybody a first-ballot victory. Then Ford would have to make a deal with one of the still surviving candidates, most likely Howard Baker or George Bush, to gain a convention majority. An offer to share the ticket as a vice presidential candidate--and heir apparent to the party leadership--would be his main bargaining point.

Other veteran Republican strategists late--and long doubt any such plan could work. They contend that Ford's entry as an active candidate would merely further divide the anti-Reagan vote in the primaries, without seriously diminishing Reagan's level of support.

Some Republican leaders also wonder whether there might not be a bit of nostalgia in the current surge of sentiment for Ford. They compare the feeling to the earlier yearning in the Democratic Party for Ted Kennedy to run --and a few see Ford almost as vulnerable to slippage once he enters what could be a bitter intraparty feud.

Yet last week, there was less doubt about the "if of a Ford move; it seemed much more a matter of "when?"

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