In a Fiercely Hawkish Mood

TIME poll shows voters rallying strongly round Carter

The dawn of a new decade is traditionally a time when Americans look ahead with optimism, but today they feel deep fears about rising prices, fuel shortages and even the possibility of a major war. Instead of blaming their current leader for the dark clouds that have gathered, however, they have rallied round him in overwhelming numbers. By huge margins, they support President Carter's responses to the Soviet aggression in Afghanistan. They do not want his foreign policy criticized, and they heavily favor him over any other presidential candidate in either party.

These are among the findings of a public opinion survey conducted Jan. 23 and 24 for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White Inc. The telephone poll of 1,227 registered voters includes a special sampling of 300 in the New England states, to measure the candidates' relative strengths as the focus of the presidential campaign swings into the Northeast.

According to the survey, Carter now leads Senator Edward Kennedy among Democrats by a stunning 34 points, 62% to 28%, almost the exact reverse of the situation last August. When independent voters, who can take part in some Democratic primaries, are added to the total, Carter's advantage widens, to 66% vs. 24%.

Carter has also taken a big lead over the major Republican candidates. In a race against the new G.O.P. front runner, George Bush, Carter wins by 49% to 28%, with 22% undecided. The President leads Ronald Reagan by 32 points and Howard Baker by 35. Kennedy, once a clear favorite, would now lose to all three of the G.O.P. front runners.

Behind Carter's enormous new support is strong and specific approval of every one of his policy pronouncements on the foreign situation. Draft registration, which Kennedy apparently believed would be unpopular when he announced his opposition to it last week, is supported by 73% of those surveyed. Even voters 18 to 24 years of age approve registration, 64% to 12%. Among Kennedy supporters, 71% favor registration. Boycotting the Olympics is supported by 67%, the grain embargo by 86%, the embargo on the sale of technical equipment to the Soviet Union by 88%.

Sixty-eight percent of those questioned agree with the statement that "it is best for the country for all the candidates to rally behind the President's foreign policy rather than to criticize it or make it a subject of debate." Among Kennedy's supporters, 56% agree with that proposition.

The country is in a decidedly hawkish mood. Seventy-eight percent favor more defense spending. A majority (74%) support building U.S. military bases in the Middle East, sending large-scale military aid to Pakistan (62%), and supplying military aid to the rebels in Afghanistan (57%). By a 3-to-l ratio, voters agree with the statement that the U.S. "may have to come close to risking war in order to make peace."

The poll results do suggest several possible areas of trouble for Carter. Though there is strong support for his anti-Soviet measures, 41% want an even tougher stand against Moscow. And patience with his handling of the hostage crisis in Iran is beginning to wear thin. The number of voters who feel that Carter has been too soft in dealing with Iran has risen markedly, from 27% in December to 44% now. On his handling of economy and energy problems, issues that his rivals have tried to exploit but with no success, Carter's standing remains low. Only 16% have a lot of confidence in Carter's management of the energy situation, and a mere 12% express confidence in his economic policies.

The support for Carter over Kennedy is broad and deep. It is based not only on an outburst of patriotic support for an incumbent President but also on a growing rejection of Kennedy as a candidate. Carter leads Kennedy by 10 points on Kennedy's home turf of New England. Carter's lead is strong in all regions of the country and among all age groups. Even families with annual incomes under $15,000 are unconvinced by Kennedy's appeals for more social programs; they reject the Kennedy candidacy, 70% to 24%.

Kennedy is seen as "too liberal" by 47%, as compared with 32% who felt that way last August. One-third of the voters say their impression of Kennedy has become worse. Of those, 30% cite "the way he answers questions" as the cause of their souring, 24% blame his statement that the Shah of Iran "ran one of the most violent regimes in the history of mankind," 18% blame his attacks on Carter and 15% say Chappaquiddick is the reason for their change of mind.

In the race for the Republican nomination, Bush's Iowa caucus victory over Reagan has made him a narrow front runner. Among Republicans and independents, Bush leads Reagan, 35% to 31%. Among Republicans only, however, Reagan still leads Bush, 41% to 34%. But with attention now shifting to the New England primaries, Bush seems to enjoy an advantage that may propel him more clearly into the lead. In this region, Bush leads Reagan 46% to 21%.

Whatever the standings today, public opinion heading into the 1980 election remains volatile. It is preoccupied with foreign affairs, suggesting that developments abroad will have large implications for domestic politics. Seventy percent of those surveyed said they "worry a lot" about the possibility of a world war. The national energy shortage, once regarded by many Americans as a somewhat artificial problem, now worries 67% of those surveyed, compared with 60% in August. A majority (52%) say they are seriously worried about saving for the future. Nearly half of those questioned say they are concerned about the possibility of a recession and about their ability to pay for the maintenance and rent on their homes.

Seventy-four percent say they now feel "the country is in deep and serious trouble." When Jimmy Carter took office in 1977, only 40% held that view. For the moment, however, the American people have clearly decided to rally round the flag, and the President.

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