Surprise Harvest In Iowa

Bush soars, Kennedy dives in first test

Suddenly, everything was different. For the victors, it was a day to match their brightest expectations. For the losers, it was worse than their blackest fears. Trooping to their caucuses in record numbers last week, the voters of Iowa produced stunning surprises that upset the carefully drawn plans for the 1980 presidential race in both parties. Left reeling in defeat were two of the nation's foremost political figures, Ted Kennedy and Ronald Reagan. Kennedy was trounced 2 to 1 by Jimmy Carter, and immediately found himself so strapped for funds that he had to stop paying his campaign workers. The Senator, who had been the most glamorous politician in the U.S. and who had seemed invincible only a few months ago, suffered the kind of setback he had never known or perhaps ever expected. Seldom had such a promising campaign floundered with such astonishing swiftness.

Reagan was beaten, although much more narrowly, by George Bush, who barely figured in the polls just weeks before. Overnight, the G.O.P. front runner was forced to change his above-it-all campaign strategy and face the fact that he was in a tough two-man race. An ABC-Harris survey of Republicans and independents taken after the caucuses showed that Bush had pulled even with Reagan nationwide and was leading the former leader, 34% to 24%, in the East, where the first primaries occur.

The caucuses proved to be important because Iowans took them so seriously. Bombarded with political speeches and ads, pressed for their views by an omnipresent press, proud of their role as potential kingmakers, some 115,000 Republicans and 100,000 Democrats turned out to vote. Four years ago, only 22,000 Republicans and 38,000 Democrats had taken part in the caucus process.

Until the voting started, the Bush forces were worried that a big turnout would hurt them. They had put together the best organization of any of the Republicans and estimated that 13,000 reliable voters would show up and back their man. They did not want surprises. But Bush succeeded far beyond the hopes of his organization. Said one of his workers, who expected only half the number of Bush voters who actually turned out: "I was sitting in this precinct, and these people I never heard of came streaming in. And it was Bush, Bush, Bush."

Bush it was. The final tally gave him 31.6%, Reagan 29.5%, Senator Howard Baker 15.2% and John Connally 9.3%. To capture Iowa and steal a march on his rivals, Bush began planning in December 1978 with Jim Baker, his longtime Texas friend, who had managed President Ford's 1976 campaign. The pair set up a savvy, politically experienced organization. Gradually Bush expanded his contacts around the state until he almost seemed to be a native. His wife Barbara, his four sons--Neil, Marvin, Jeb and George--and his daughter Dorothy carried their father's cause to 96 of Iowa's 99 counties.

Emphasizing the need for a tough, consistent foreign poli cy, calling for a strong military, Bush kept campaigning right up to caucus time. On the last day, he was sure he was gaining what he called "forward momentum" as larger and larger crowds cheered him on. At each stop, supporters assured him he would win. "Don't say that in front of these fellows," joshed Bush, pointing to the press. "We're trying to surprise them." He turned up at a caucus in Des Moines just when the tally there showed him to be a big winner. "I'm on cloud nine!" he shouted. "You made my night!" Then he asked an aide: "But what does this mean?" When the statewide results were in, the meaning was plain enough and Bush exulted with raised eyebrows and a self-satisfied grin: "We have done the unthinkable when everyone put us down as an asterisk four months ago."

Reagan ended his Iowa campaign as nonchalantly as he had conducted it. On caucus day, he was home in Pacific Palisades, Calif. That night, while the votes were being counted, he went to a friend's house to see the film Kramer vs. Kramer. He learned of the results from a TV reporter who came to call. Reagan's second-place finish was a setback for John Sears, his highly touted strategist, who had kept his leading candidate out of the fray and especially out of Iowa. In August, Reagan led in the polls with 48% of the vote; Bush had 1%. Explained Sears: "It won't do any good to have Reagan going to coffees and shaking hands like the others. People would get the idea that he's an ordinary man like the rest of us."

But Iowans got a very different idea when Reagan spent only 45 hours campaigning in the state and then acted as if he were already President. Crowds were usually kept at a distance by restraining ropes and squads of Secret Service men (Bush refused Secret Service protection), Iowans did not get much of a chance look the candidate in the eye, as they like to do. Above all, Reagan seemed to insult them by refusing to join the Republican debate on Jan. 5, which was watched by an estimated 58% of the adults in the state. Complains Sheryl Readout, a Marshall County G.O.P. executive: "Reagan was thumbing his nose at Iowa. Iowa has done the same thing to him."

Though finishing a weak third, Howard Baker managed to avoid a complete humiliation. "I survived," he said. "Survival isn't bad when you're counting the bodies on the battlefield and you're still alive." Concentrating on his duties as Senate Minority Leader, Baker was late in starting his campaign. Governor Robert Ray provided him with capable operatives, and Baker's ads on TV (one shows him shouting down an Iranian student) were considered the best of all. But it was too little, too late.

Connally, who had hoped to come in third, was embarrassed by his fourth-place finish. He skimped on organization to concentrate on a $125,000 media blitz. But his Texas-style swagger was not really suited to down-home Iowa. Some low blows in his advertising did not help him in a state where the politics are especially clean. (Example: he ran a TV spot that implied that Governor Ray had endorsed him. When Ray objected, Connally had to withdraw the ad.)

In fifth place with 6.7% of the vote, Congressman Phil Crane did a little better than expected and may pick up some hard-core conservative votes if Reagan slumps. John Anderson's 4.3% was not a bad showing for a maverick who did not campaign in Iowa. But Robert Dole, who received a mere 1.5%, was advised by his friends to give up the presidential race and to campaign for reelection to the Senate.

Carter's victory was sweet for Rosalynn, who had gamely stumped the frozen state while the President stayed in Washington. The First Lady called her staff together to gloat over the defeat of Kennedy, a man she resents. Says a participant: "You could see the glint of triumph in her eyes from 50 feet away."

But Carter had much more than his hard-working wife in his favor. Says California Pollster Mervin Field: "If ever there was a perfect way to shield an incumbent President, it is Iran and Afghanistan." Even Carter's embargo on sales of grain to the Soviet Union was forgiven in a key farm state. Iowa's Democrats also proudly remembered that they had started Carter on his way in 1976 with a caucus victory. Says Carter Iowa Coordinator Bill Romjue: "We were dealing with people who knew the President when he was sleeping on their couches. Iowans thrive on personal contacts, and the President kept those up."

Trying to make the best of the rout, Kennedy's supporters argued that Iowa was not a typical state. It has low unemployment and a high literacy rate; it has few blacks and few slums. Yet it has a strong, liberal Democratic Party, which should have been in Kennedy's camp. But the Senator never made a persuasive case for challenging a President who belongs to his own party. Although his campaigning improved, Kennedy's appearances disappointed people who expected him to be like his dynamic older brothers. He made a decision to keep his rhetoric toned down for fear that his passionate style would not play well in the state. But his cooler approach led to criticism that his heart was not really in the fight. His personal life also counted against him. Says Ed Campbell, state Democratic chairman: "Clouds from Chappaquiddick did pass over, and people silently made their decision because of it." After the caucus tally, Ted's sister Eunice tried to comfort him. "You still have me," she said. Quipped Kennedy: "I'd rather have Davenport."

The Iowa caucuses dramatically shifted the standings of the candidates and reshaped their strategies. On the Republican side, Bush had obviously made the biggest gain, but his surprise victory opened the road for others by showing how vulnerable Reagan is. If Bush should falter, Baker or Connally might have a chance. And back in the wings waited Gerald Ford.

Bush is sticking to a game plan that so far has proved itself. As he watched the returns on caucus night, he was already thinking ahead to the Feb. 26 New Hampshire primary, the first of 37 in the nation this year. He addressed his sons as if he were a high school football coach giving a pep talk between halves: "O.K., boys, we've got to go in and cover New Hampshire just like we did Iowa." Bush is nearly as well organized in the Granite State as he was in Iowa. Until the Iowa caucuses, Reagan was considered ahead, but Bush benefits from his background. Brought up a Connecticut Yankee, he appeals to New England pride. But he will be more closely scrutinized in New Hampshire than ever before.

Bush is expected to win the March 4 primary in Massachusetts, a haven for moderate Republicans. Once he goes south for the contests later in March, he is in Reagan and Connally territory, but a good showing in the North will help him in Dixie.

As for the Reagan camp, it was clear that Sears was shifting strategy. The embattled campaign manager now must trot out his venerable war horse. Says Sears: "We're going to be exceptionally active in a news sense." As evidence, the new Reagan reverted to the old last week and attempted to galvanize his supporters with a slashing attack on Carter's foreign policy, which he claimed increased the "chances of nuclear confrontation." As for the President's thinking that it might be possible to negotiate with Iran because of its fear of the Soviet Union, Carter was "either deceitful or a fool." Said the former California Governor, alluding to the British appeasement of Hitler: "We're seeing the same kind of atmosphere that we saw when Mr. Chamberlain was tapping his cane on the cobblestones of Munich."

Reagan is adding more campaign stops to his New Hampshire schedule. Leading with his chin on the age issue, he plans to attend a large fund raiser in New Hampshire on his 69th birthday, Feb. 6. But the more he is exposed, the better his chance of committing the kind of blunders that hurt him four years ago, when he talked loosely about sending U.S. troops to Rhodesia.

Reagan has another problem. In 1976 he benefited from being the conservative outsider attacking the Establishment Republican in the White House. This year there are few issues separating him from the other candidates, making it easier for Reagan supporters to desert to Bush or some other Republican. Last month a survey of 225 corporation presidents conducted by Dun's Review showed as much support for Bush as for Reagan, Connally and Anderson combined. After a tour of the Midwest, a top G.O.P. consultant reported that businessmen are souring on Connally and turning to Bush. "They don't believe Connally can make it, and they think maybe Bush can."

Howard Baker was encouraged enough by Reagan's setback in Iowa to speculate that the race may be wide open; he figures that Bush may be easier to overtake than Reagan. Perhaps the best campaigner of the candidates and a man who is at home on TV, Baker is confident he will do better in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa, where his time was limited. By making more of an appeal to minorities and labor, Baker plans to attack Bush from slightly to his left and paint him as being too conservative to be elected in the fall. Connally, who has been conducting a national campaign heavily based on TV, is well organized for the March 8 primary in South Carolina, the first of the contests in the South where his support is strongest. But if he should lose there to Reagan or anybody else, his campaign likely would be over.

The Ford backers claim to be heartened by Iowa. They envision Reagan continuing to slip while Bush fails to establish himself as the definite front runner. Then the party, runs the scenario, would turn to tried-and-true Jerry, who now plans to make a series of speeches around the country and claims that he would be "available if the ball bounced one way." Just two days after the caucuses, Ford sounded like a candidate when he sharply attacked Carter. He accused the President of "naively misreading Soviet military and diplomatic intentions." Blaming Carter's "cutting back" of the military, Ford claimed that the President had helped make the Soviet Union more aggressive. Charged Ford: "The Carter Administration must and can be blamed for what's happened in Afghanistan."

Both of Carter's opponents came out of Iowa in tatters. California Governor Jerry Brown did not win a single delegate and does not appear to be in much better shape in Maine, where the Democrats will caucus on Feb. 10, or New Hampshire. In the wake of Kennedy's defeat, the polls show Carter beating him almost everywhere, including New Hampshire. In a poll published this week in the Boston Globe, Democratic and independent voters in the Granite State gave Carter a healthy 54% to 36% lead over Kennedy. Sensing disaster, prominent politicians, like New York's Governor Hugh Carey, were backing away from Kennedy.

With the Iowa loss, contributions to Kennedy's campaign came to a halt. Of the total $4.6 million raised so far, he has only $200,000 left.

Searching for an answer to his dilemma, Kennedy canceled his scheduled campaign trip to New England to devote his time to a major speech to be delivered this week. It was to be an overall attack on Carter's foreign and domestic policies. He hopes that a dramatic, sharply focused address, in contrast to his more rambling efforts on the stump, will revive his fading chances in the New England states. If he fails to win in his native region, he plans to withdraw from the race.

Carter seemed to be in command last week, but one caucus does not make a campaign. White House aides are well aware that his present popularity rests on the practice of Americans supporting a President during a crisis in foreign affairs. If Carter stumbles while handling today's treacherous foreign policy issues, or if events overseas simply turn against him--and the U.S.--then he could as easily plummet again in public estimation. "If Kennedy goes out before that happens," says a Carter aide, "we're golden."

So Kennedy must fight to keep his candidacy alive, while the President, preoccupied with events abroad, can avoid debating the key domestic issues: inflation and energy. When the overseas crisis finally ends, these issues will likely bounce back, but by then Kennedy may have quit. As events change rapidly, a candidate who is down one month could be up the next. In the politics of 1980, nothing seems certain but uncertainty.

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