Will the Last Remain First?

A cooler Ronald Reagan formally enters the race

For months he had waited patiently in the wings, as nine other Republicans entered the race without dislodging him from his position at the head of the pack. Last week Ronald Reagan, the once fervent evangelist of the political right, finally made his move. He did so in one of the nation's few citadels of G.O.P. moderation: New York City. As a spotlight redolent of Hollywood memories illuminated his pinkish cheeks and slightly graying temples, the still handsome candidate declared, "I am here tonight to announce my intention to seek the Republican nomination for President of the United States." Some 1,500 followers, who had paid $500 each to be present in the grand ballroom of the New York Hilton, stood and roared their approval.

They were then treated to 25 minutes of the sort of anti-Washington, pro-free-enterprise punch lines that Reagan has used to wow audiences since 1964, when he campaigned for Barry Goldwater. But Reagan delivered his speech with far less passion than he has in the past. This time he is the front runner, and in an attempt to broaden his appeal, the former California Governor seems to have banked the fires that once frightened more moderate G.O.P. factions.

Yet, as befitted an ex-sportscaster and exactor, his delivery was as smooth and flawless as ever. Only when he told movingly of how his father had lost his job at Christmas time during the Great Depression did Reagan let his emotions show, nearly choking up. Vowed Reagan: "I cannot and will not stand by while inflation and joblessness destroy the dignity of our people." His voice also wavered at the same point in an identical TV speech broadcast that evening by about 90 stations, at a cost of some $400,000.

If some of the excitement was gone as Reagan sought to sound more calm and reasonable, he had cause to believe that the political climate had moved his way. Certainly within his party, the ideological gulf has narrowed since 1976. His three major opponents, Howard Baker, George Bush and John Connally, are about as conservative as Reagan.

Reagan assailed "the arrogance of a federal establishment which accepts no blame for our condition, cannot be relied upon to give us a fair estimate of our situation and utterly refuses to live within its means." He labeled the nation's economy a "disaster" and blamed it on a Federal Government that "has overspent, overestimated and overregulated." He lamented the fact that "the great productivity of our industry is now surpassed by virtually all the major nations that compete with us for world markets." He complained that "our defense strength has deteriorated." He blasted U.S. failure to reduce its dependence on foreign oil.

To cure these ills, Reagan called for the removal of government obstacles to boost domestic oil and gas production, expanded use of nuclear power plants and increased defense spending, as well as a federal tax cut to boost the economy and a balanced budget. (As Governor, Reagan curbed the growth of state employment and produced a revenue surplus.) In one departure from his expected stands on domestic issues, Reagan omitted any attack on Carter's proposed tax on oil companies' windfall profits and even suggested that the Federal Government should determine whether Big Oil "exploits" the energy crisis.

Yet Reagan's most notable innovations came in the field of foreign policy. One was his advocating of statehood for Puerto Rico, a highly charged issue on the island and of little urgency to mainland voters. The second was his calling for a "North American accord" among the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Reagan disclosed no specifics about the proposal other than that representatives of Mexico and Canada should "sit in on high-level planning sessions" in Washington.

Reagan's veteran campaign manager, John Sears, said that both proposals had been inserted into the speech as examples of "Reagan's forward-looking activist presidency." Because Reagan has consistently been favored by roughly a third of Republican voters in opinion polls (his closest rivals, Connally and Baker, trail at about 15%), his advisers figure that he can afford to court the Democrats and independents he would need to win the presidency if he got the nomination.

The strategy has been devised mainly by Sears, who guided Reagan to within 117 delegate votes of taking the nomination away from Gerald Ford in 1976. Sears, who is regarded by political pros as one of the best campaign managers around, views the 1976 experience, even though a loss, as a plus. Says he: "Having done it once before may be a bigger advantage than our current popularity."

Popularity, of course, often fades in American politics, especially if the front runner bumbles during the long ordeal of primary contests. Quips an official of the Republican National Committee: "You remember President Muskie and President Romney." Reagan's tendency to shoot from the lip hurt him in 1976, when he proclaimed that $90 billion could be cut from the federal budget merely by dropping many of the federal social service programs.

His opponents are counting on him to make similar mistakes this time. Says Dave Keene, a top 1976 Reagan strategist who is now working for George Bush: "I don't question Reagan's health or stamina or his intellectual capacity to handle issues. But he may be unable to field tough questions and develop sophisticated positions under the pressure of a campaign."

To lessen the chances of making errors, Reagan carefully prepared for the battle during the months that he delayed making his formal announcement. He has kept on top of current events, and made sure his name has stayed familiar by writing a column of commentary for 105 newspapers and broadcast messages for 270 radio stations. He has traveled half a million miles since last March as a dinner speaker, charging up to $10,000 for each appearance and raising some $3 million for local Republican candidates. In recent months he has spent several hours a week being briefed intensively on both foreign and domestic issues by Martin Anderson, a former White House adviser in the Nixon Administration and an economist. Meanwhile, Reagan's campaign staff has built the biggest coast-to-coast organization of any G.O.P. candidate.

While Sears is Reagan's top adviser on strategy, his campaign chairman is one of the Senate's ablest conservatives, Nevada's Paul Laxalt. Last week Reagan named as Laxalt's top assistant another prominent conservative, New York Congressman Jack Kemp, the former Buffalo Bills quarterback who made a name for himself politically in 1977 by advocating a 30% cut in federal tax rates.

Reagan's chief problem at this point is his slow start on fund raising for himself. Texan John Connally has already netted about $6.6 million, nearly twice as much as Reagan. Still Reagan's moneymen have a handy list of some 400,000 contributors from 1976 and expect to catch up fast.

Immediately after his announcement, Reagan embarked on his two-part campaign strategy: 1) to concede no region to any opponent, and 2) to strike hard and fast, conveying a clear message to wavering local politicians that they must join him now or be left behind. Reagan's strategists hope that the blitz will lead to early victories in Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Florida, thus locking up the nomination before spring. Contends Reagan Press Secretary Jim Lake: "If we win the early primaries, we think it will be all over."

From New York, Reagan flew into heavily Democratic territory in Boston's blue-collar Dorchester section. He was greeted warmly at an electrical workers union hall by 500 people waving placards (SINK WITH TED: SWIM WITH RON and southie for reagan). Reagan left Massachusetts to Ford without a fight in 1976; he intends to slug it out there this year, even though the hard-working Bush seems much better organized in the state than any other G.O.P. candidate.

Next, Reagan got a tumultuous welcome in New Hampshire, where he drew 48% of the primary vote in 1976. Some 3,500 cheering people jammed the hall of a National Guard armory in Manchester, while some 2,000 more listened from smaller adjoining rooms. He drew standing applause when he declared, "We must shelve SALT II." While refraining from suggesting what Carter ought to do about the hostage crisis in Iran, he stirred another ovation by proclaiming, "It is tune to stop worrying whether someone likes us and decide we are going to be respected in the world. . . to the degree that no dictator would ever again seize our embassy and take our people."

Although the Northeast got most of Reagan's attention in the first week of official campaigning, he made a side trip to a rally in more congenial territory in Cicero, Ill., and spent Saturday in Florida, where a convention of state Republicans took a symbolic straw vote. As expected, Reagan won the poll, with 34.4% of the 1,326 ballots cast, while Connally, who had pressed hard for a squeaker by outspending the Californian $300,000 to $225,000, finished second, with 26.6%. A surprisingly strong third: George Bush, who collected 21.1% of the votes after spending a mere $40,000 and visiting the state only a few times. Three weeks ago Bush scored a startling win over Howard Baker in a similar poll in Maine, and the Florida results further strengthened his candidacy. Yet what will matter far more for all the candidates is how well they fare in the state's March primary.

Everywhere Reagan went last week, the question of his age popped up. If elected, he would turn 70 a month after his inauguration--making him the oldest of all U.S. Presidents to assume the office. His opponents figure that he is most vulnerable on this issue. Nonetheless, except for a slight thickening around his middle since 1976, he looks as fit as ever. His aides released a report of his last physical examination, in April, which showed no signs of coronary disease and a blood pressure of 120/80--a rate physicians consider excellent. He has a touch of arthritis in his right thumb and a minor respiratory allergy to pollen. Reagan's aides contend that the age issue has been exaggerated by the press, yet polls repeatedly show that it concerns many voters. Reagan has faced the problem mostly by joking about it. In a jab at Carter's collapse during a long jog, Reagan last week referred to the stiff race ahead and quipped, "You can be sure I won't be carried off the track."

The acid test of Reagan's stamina will be the grueling campaign itself. Declares Republican National Chairman Bill Brock: "The age question will answer itself. If Reagan goes through 35 primary states and succeeds, then we'll know that age is not a problem."

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