A Game of Musical Chairs

Demirel again replaces Ecevit, as the country founders

As the NATO member with a window overlooking the Soviet Union, Turkey is a vital component of Western defense. Thus it is of no small concern to Washington that the country continues to be plagued by endemic political instability, terrorist violence and serious economic problems. In no small measure, Turkey's fruitless search for stability can be traced to lurching shifts in leadership that involve the country's two top politicians, Buelent Ecevit, head of the Republican People's Party, and Suleyman Demirel, leader of the Justice Party. Last week, in a routine that has now become alarmingly familiar, Premier Ecevit's government was forced to step down after losing its majority in a by-election for five seats in the lower house of parliament. Demirel, his arch rival, will now attempt to try to form a new government.

Since January 1974, Ecevit and Demirel have alternated as Premier half a dozen times. The two-man game of musical chairs has done nothing to resolve the country's protracted economic woes, which include a 70% inflation rate, 20% unemployment and shortages of everything from coffee (Turkish coffee is available only on the black market) to diesel oil. Moreover, religious and ethnic feuds have led to a frightening increase in violence. In the past 21 months, 2,100 people have been killed, most of them in confrontations between left-and right-wing extremists.

Demirel had been waiting impatiently to regain power since January 1978, when Ecevit lured away ten of Demirel's supporters in the lower house by promising them Cabinet posts. That took away Demirel's majority, causing his government to fall. It also gave Ecevit just enough seats to become Premier with the support of his own party and independents. This time Demirel decided to play Ecevit's game, by luring several of the Premier's supporters over to the opposition. In the by-elections, Demirel's party campaigned for the five lower-house seats and 50 (out of 183) senate seats as if the voting were nationwide. It paid off. The Justice Party won all five of the lower-house seats and picked up 33 of the 50 senate seats.

Ecevit had no choice but to go to President Fahri Koruturk and resign; he declined to try to form a new government and recommended that the mandate be given to Demirel. The Justice Party holds only 183 seats in the 450-member house. To form a government, Demirel will have to put together a coalition with two right-wing groups, the Muslim Nationalist Salvation Party and the ultrarightist National Action Party. Neither is a very palatable partner for Demirel's moderate party.

The logical thing would be for Ecevit and Demirel to team up in a "grand coalition" of their two parties, which together poll more than 70% of the vote. Both are very near the center, with the Justice Party leaning a bit to the right and the Republicans to the left. But such a coalition appears impossible, because of the personal animosity and bitter rivalry between the two men. They are totally different in style and personality: Ecevit, 54, is an intense, ulcer-suffering intellectual and poet; Demirel, 55, is a talkative extravert and was a successful private businessman before he entered politics.

Meanwhile, Turkey founders. Three months ago Ecevit reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund that allowed the country to reschedule $5 billion in short-term debts and thus stave off bankruptcy. The IMF deal unlocked a package of $1.8 billion in cash credits on favorable terms from the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development countries and the U.S.

But all this has yet to make an impact on the Turkish public. Nearly all export earnings go for petroleum and fertilizers, leaving the vast state-owned industries without spare parts. The result: lower production and more unemployment. Says a State Department specialist in Turkish affairs: "We just hope that whatever the next government may be, it will stick to the terms of the IMF deal and not deviate from the international strategy for recovery. Otherwise, Turkey could become a flat-out disaster case."

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