Still Looking for a Leader

The nation's mood darkens and a TIME poll finds Carter losing ground

A the marathon for the presidency, 1980, begins to quicken, the American electorate is in a singularly sour and pessimistic mood. Not only is the public naturally worried about the economy, energy and inflation, but it doubts things will improve much. The country is anxious to find strong leaders --the evidence is overwhelming--and the public has little faith that Jimmy Carter has the ability, let alone the programs, to solve the nation's problems. Clearly, the search has begun for a candidate who is seen to have the sort of leadership qualities that Carter is thought to lack.

The result, according to the latest findings of a survey completed Aug. 24 for TIME by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly & White Inc. is that for the first time Republican Ronald Reagan is running ahead of Carter as the choice for President. Texan John Connally, though still only the fourth choice of Republicans and independents for the G.O.P. nomination, has closed the gap with Carter, and now trails the President by only four percentage points. Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker finishes in a dead heat with Carter. Both Baker and Reagan would defeat Carter among Southern Protestants, one of the President's key constituencies in 1976.

The biggest beneficiary of the current political mood of pessimism, however, is Senator Edward M. Kennedy. The TIME poll of 1,049 people shows him to be the overwhelming choice for his own party's nomination. More than twice as many Democrats (62%) would prefer to see Kennedy as their party's nominee than Carter (24%). Nearly two-thirds of all those surveyed, Republicans as well as Democrats, felt Kennedy was "acceptable," and only one in three felt he was too liberal. While President Carter would lose to Ronald Reagan, according to the poll, and barely beat Connally, Kennedy would swamp either Republican.

Carter's weak political standing was helped little by his busy summer efforts to shore up his Administration and to project a more decisive image as a national leader. More than a third of those polled thought that Carter has lately shown more leadership than in the past, but his trouble persists. Only one person in ten expressed any confidence in Carter's ability to deal with the economy. Only 13% could say that they had a lot of confidence that he could handle the energy problem. Just one in ten said he was competent enough to appoint the right people to office. The naming of Hamilton Jordan as White House Chief of Staff caused 30% of those polled to say they thought less of the President for the move, while 37% said it made no difference. Only 18% approved.

There was, however, a measure of good news for Carter. Despite the more than 2-to-l preference for Kennedy as the party's next nominee, 42% still believe Carter will be renominated, perhaps because many still doubt Kennedy will seek the prize. Moreover, Carter's stepped-up criticism of the Congress was greeted by more than half of those polled as positive. He gets good marks for his Middle East policies, for his moral fervor, his personal appearance, his personality and such abilities as speaking and bringing people together. Unlike other Presidents who have fallen as low as Carter in the polls, there seems to be little personal animosity directed at the man in the White House.

In many ways, this absence of hostility toward Carter is remarkable, given the bleak popular mood. The State of the Nation indicator, a TIME index measuring how people feel things are going in the country and their confidence in the future, registered a low of 19% in the most recent survey. A year ago, the indicator was 34% and in March 1977, shortly after Carter took office, it stood at 47%.

More than half the country think a recession is already under way, and another quarter believe that if a recession has not yet hit, it will soon.

Almost two-thirds agreed with Carter's own analysis that America faces a crisis of confidence. But unlike the President, who blamed the aftereffects on Viet Nam, Watergate and the selfish narcissism of the American people, those polled pointed to more immediate problems --inflation and energy shortages.

The findings of the TIME survey did not register much hope that these problems will soon be solved. Those questioned had even less faith in Congress than in the President to solve the energy problem. Despite the preachings of the Carter Administration, 63% said the recent gasoline drought was "exaggerated." Still, the problem of energy was rated a serious worry by 60% of those polled, perhaps reflecting the notion that whether the shortage was exaggerated or contrived, it still existed.

Set against this national gloom and concern, prospective candidates are rising or falling on the extent to which they are seen as strong leaders. The survey found Kennedy to have the highest leadership rating of all the presidential prospects. Fifty-eight percent said they felt Kennedy was "very strong" as a leader and only 12% said he was "not strong."

Ronald Reagan ranked second with figures of 40% and 18%. Connally, usually regarded by politicians as a man who projects a very strong image as a leader, has apparently not yet impressed the public.

Only 27% ranked him as very strong, and 24% said he was weak. President Carter ended up at the bottom of the leadership list, below even Republicans Robert Dole, Philip Crane and George Bush. More than half of those polled said Carter was not a strong leader; only 12% thought he was.

California Governor Jerry Brown ranked above the President, but below the major Republican figures. Only 19% said Brown was a very strong leader and 38% found him lacking. For the first time in the TIME polls, Brown was also found to be unacceptable as the next President of the U.S.

by a majority of those familiar with him.

About one-third of those surveyed felt he was too liberal, while 8% thought him too conservative, and 29% felt he was just right. As a candidate for his party's nomination, Brown trailed Carter by only seven points in April; now the margin is 16 points.

On the Republican side, Ronald Reagan has actually improved his standing despite the fact that he has not announced his candidacy and has done little campaigning. A year ago, 45% found Reagan unacceptable as the next President; that negative rating has now dropped to 38%.

Among Republicans and independents, Reagan is still the first choice of 27% as the G.O.P. nominee, while Ford is picked by 24% and Howard Baker runs third at 14%. John Connally is fourth at 12%, although he is already campaigning hard and is regarded by many professionals as the most likely G.O.P. candidate to stay the course in what is already shaping up as a fascinating presidential campaign. sb

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