Big Daddy's Last Stand?

The exiles promise a return to democracy

At long last, the brutal regime of Uganda's Field Marshal Idi Amin Dada had seemed to be drawing to an ignominious close. A force of 20,000 invading Tanzanian troops and Ugandan dissidents had laid seige to Kampala and was lobbing heavy artillery shells into the capital. Thousands of Africans and Europeans had fled into neighboring Kenya. Amin's own army, 20,000 strong, had either defected to the invaders or disappeared into the bush. But at week's end Big Daddy seemed to have won at least a temporary reprieve. A force of 2,000 Libyan troops, sent at the last minute by Amin's ally, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, mounted a counterattack that drove the invaders out of the Kampala suburbs to Budo, 16 miles southwest of the capital.

Savoring the latest shift in the seesawing war, the 300-lb. Amin was quoted in a radio broadcast as saying that he and his army were "prepared to fight to the last man because they were not prepared to become slaves of Tanzania." Analysts believe that the burly dictator is still in Kampala; earlier, there had been speculation that the Libyans had flown Uganda's President-for-Life to safety in Tripoli, where Amin is said to have sent members of his family some weeks ago. There were also rumors that Amin had fled to Arua, a town in northwest Uganda that had been prepared as a last redoubt.

For weeks the Tanzania-Uganda war had been in a stalemate. Half the invading force had halted near the town of Mpigi, some 30 miles south of Kampala, while the other half was stalled on a road about 40 miles west of the Ugandan capital. The two-pronged attack apparently had been stopped by Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere. During the course of the five-month war, Nyerere had been reluctant to send his troops all the way to Kampala. He had hoped that the invasion would lead to a spontaneous uprising of disaffected Ugandans, both military and civilian, that would then become a war of national liberation. But the uprising never came. As a result, the invasion followed a stop-go pattern.

The pattern was broken last week when Nyerere received a note from Gaddafi demanding an end to the invasion and the withdrawal of all Tanzanian troops. Incensed, Nyerere ordered his troops to march into Kampala. They reached the capital's suburbs in two days, after laying down a barrage of 122-mm Soviet artillery that was inaccurate but noisily effective. Amin's forces seemed to melt away under the African sun.

In the closing days of the regime, Libya was busy supplying Amin's troops with fuel and small arms. Libyan army instructors also tried frantically to improve both the skill and morale of units still loyal to Amin. The reasons for Libyan support are not clear, though it may be that Gaddafi wanted to support a fellow Muslim in order to preserve an Islamic "belt" running from Libya through Chad (where Libyan-supported guerrillas now control the government), Uganda and Somalia. Gaddafi's involvement, however, carries wider implications for Africa. Libyan planes in support of Amin used Nairobi International Airport, thus placing Kenya on Amin's side and in opposition to Tanzania. Ugandan exiles in Nairobi and elsewhere have vowed vengeance on Kenya.

Anticipating victory over Amin, Ugandan exiles from around the world met last week in Tanzania to form a provisional government. Conspicuously absent was former President Milton Obote, who had been overthrown by Big Daddy in 1971. Never a particularly popular leader, Obote had alienated many of his countrymen with his authoritarian manner and socialist rhetoric, and particularly with his ruthless efforts to crush Uganda's ancient tribal kingdoms in the interests of national unity.

Instead of Obote, the exiles chose a compromise leader, Y.K. Lule, 66, former chancellor of Makerere University. Under the name of the Uganda National Liberation Front, the group declared that the new government will re-establish democratic principles, including the rule of law and respect for human rights. That would be quite a change for Big Daddy's tormented domain.

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