FOSMEF

By John Skow

THE THIRD WORLD WAR: AUGUST 1985 by General Sir John Hackett and othertop-ranking NATO generals and advisers Macmillan; 368 pages; $12.95

In war games, thinking the unthinkable can involve much reading of the unreadable. The authors of this futurist fantasy, for example, cram their narrative with jawbreaking acronyms: FOSMEF for "Flag Officer Soviet Middle East Forces," STANAVFORLANT for "Standing Naval Force Atlantic." The plot is slowed by harrumphs: "Professional military men in the parliamentary democracies of the West are generally honest people, loyal to those they serve ..."

Much of this is understandable. Most of the writers are British officers, advocates of strong, well-equipped NATO forces or, in simpler terms, more money for the military. When they are not putting up recruiting posters, the generals provide a chilling argument. The assumption of The Third World War is that by 1985, the Soviet Union feels strong militarily but is increasingly unsure of its economic capacity and even less certain of its hold on the satellite nations. Its own Asian republics are drawn toward the new China-Japan co-prosperity sphere. Embarrassing riots in Poland convince Kremlin hard-liners that they must re-establish Soviet credibility by force. The decision is made to stir up fighting in black Africa, invade Yugoslavia and then sweep across West Germany to a stop-line at the Rhine. After this humiliation is imposed on the West, negotiations will be demanded of the new President of the U.S., a Republican who beats Walter Mondale in '84.

A number of speculations are posited. Both sides, the authors believe, would refrain from using nuclear weapons, though chemical warfare would be fairly widespread. The modern conventional war would be over quickly because of the speed with which supplies would be consumed. (The danger of such war games is that even professional strategists can be overtaken by events. The book assumes, for example, that Iran, led by the Shah, would support NATO strongly.) As this history develops, open revolt among the satellite nations and within the Soviet Union splits the country into republics, but not before an ICBM destroys Birmingham, England, and a counter-strike obliterates Minsk. The realignment after the war leaves Moscow's former do main Balkanized and at peace, but Africa remains tumultuous. Depending on what course China-Japan takes, say the generals, it seems likely that the conflict leading to World War IV may not be be tween East and West, but between affluent North and starving South. In the meantime, the chroniclers of The Third World War urge us to support our local military-industrial complex, and to watch out for the Soviets when they begin to slip. Roger and out.

John Skow

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