Warning from a Friend

China's Teng is not the only leader worrying about Viet Nam

Just one day after China's Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-p'ing ended his visit to the U.S., another Asian leader arrived at the White House last week to warn Jimmy Carter that an expansionist, Soviet-backed Viet Nam threatens peace and stability in Southeast Asia. The new visitor was Premier Kriangsak Chomanan of Thai land, whose country has good reason to feel beleaguered.

Until recently, both Laos and Cambodia served as buffer states that separated the Thais from their ancient enemies, the Vietnamese. Now Laos is firmly under Hanoi's direction, and Cambodia is embroiled in war fare between an invading Vietnamese army and resisting Khmer Rouge forces. Both Laos and Cambodia are providing sanctuary for thousands of Thai Communist insurgents, who roam almost at ran dom over several provinces in northern and northeastern Thailand.

Kriangsak came to Washington looking for some kind of U.S. support that might dissuade Hanoi's military strategists from viewing Thailand as ultimately just another domino. The Premier seemed to be satisfied by Carter's assurance that the U.S. was "deeply committed to the integrity and the freedom and the security of Thailand." As a token of that commitment, the President plans to ask Congress to approve transfer to Thai ownership of $11.3 million worth of U.S. ammunition stored in Thailand since the Viet Nam War. Carter Administration officials quietly promised Kriangsak that they would speed up delivery of F-5E fighter-bombers and other modern arms already ordered by Thailand. They have indicated that the Administration will ask Congress early this spring to raise the level of arms sales to Thailand to $50 million a year from the currently planned $30 million.

No matter how much the U.S. increases its arms ship ments, Thailand would still be hopelessly outclassed on the battlefield in all-out war. The well-equipped Vietnamese out number Thailand's 141,000-man army by a ratio of more than 4 to 1. And Viet Nam's battle-hardened forces are in a class apart from the Thai sol diers, who are led by officers generally more interested in politics and moneymaking than fighting. As nearly as anyone can recall, the Thai army has not fully mobilized for a war since 1810.

A major confrontation between the two countries is unlikely as long as Khmer Rouge guerrillas loyal to ousted Cambodian Premier Pol Pot continue fighting. After the invading Vietnamese succeeded last month in installing a pro-Hanoi regime in Phnom-Penh, it soon found itself tied down by guerrilla resistance in the Cambodian countryside.

China is helping keep that resistance alive, Teng revealed during his visit, by resupplying the Khmer Rouge insurgents through Thailand. Kriangsak last week skirted questions about the Chinese action as "speculation." Thailand, however, probably could not stop the resupply effort even if it wanted to. U.S. intelligence believes that Chinese boats are landing supplies on Thailand's southeastern coast for easy transshipment across a sliver of Thai territory to Cambodia.

The long-term danger facing Thailand is that Hanoi will consolidate its hold on Cambodia and then turn its attention to bullying and beguiling Bangkok into a posture of subservient neutralism. By controlling Thai Communist sanctuaries in Laos and Cambodia, Hanoi could turn guerrilla infiltration of Thailand on and off at will, depending on how cooperative Bangkok was prepared to be. Thailand would find it impossible to seal its porous 1,400-mile frontier with Laos and Cambodia. Nor could Thailand threaten retaliatory attacks on the guerrilla sanctuaries as long as those havens were protected by superior Vietnamese forces. Kriangsak has made extensive efforts to woo Hanoi. When Vietnamese Premier Pham Van Dong visited Bangkok last September, Kriangsak, an accomplished cook, made a spicy tarn yam soup, of chilies, fish sauce and shrimp, while the two men chewed over political problems. Last month Kriangsak personally intervened to prevent the five-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from specifically naming Viet Nam in the organization's condemnation of "foreign intervention" in Cambodia. Some of Thai land's friends believe that Kriangsak has gone altogether too far in trying to appease Hanoi. Says a Malaysian diplomat tartly: "The problem with Thailand is that it has no foreign policy. It's fine to bend with the wind, but who's to know how far it will go?"

Kriangsak may be indecisive in his conduct of foreign policy, but his domestic record, for the most part, is impressive.

Since taking power in a blood less coup 15 months ago, the pipe-smoking former army general has abolished martial law, lured rebellious students back from the jungle, and promised to hold elections this April. Unlike many Thai politicians, Kriangsak, 61, is considered personally honest. Perhaps his greatest shortcoming has been a failure to tackle the endemic corruption that corrodes Thai society and fertile ground for the In the long run, may prove to be a more problem for and Thailand than Vietnamese.

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