The 40th Fall

Setting the scene for violence

Italy's 40th government since the fall of Fascism in 1943 collapsed with a familiar crash last week, creating a crisis that presaged general elections and, quite possibly, renewed political terrorism. Charging that the Christian Democrats had reneged on an agreement to consult them on important government decisions, the Communists withdrew from an alliance of major parties that had supported the one-party government of Premier Giulio Andreotti in Parliament. Without the backing of the Communist, Socialist, Republican and Social Democratic parties, Andreotti mildly told the Chamber of Deputies, he had no choice except to step down as head of a Cabinet that had lasted for a precarious ten months.

Party Chief Enrico Berlinguer and other Communist leaders insisted that henceforth they would settle for nothing less than "a presence in the government"--meaning seats in a future Cabinet. Berlinguer's position was that he had earned few benefits from a tacit collaboration with the Christian Democrats. Indeed, the Communists complained that they had been blamed for unpopular government decisions without having gained any real power.

A Communist pledge to cooperate in a three-year government economic recovery plan, for example, had been attacked by workers who felt that they would suffer from new austerity measures and wage restraints. Similarly, the Andreotti government's failure to make a dent in unemployment, which rose from 1.5 million to 1.7 million in 1978, caused the jobless to criticize Berlinguer for not pushing through employment programs.

As a result, extreme left-wing groups and militant nonaligned unions had gained a host of new supporters, while the Communists suffered significant losses in local elections last year. Apparently reacting to widespread charges that the Communists had betrayed ideology for the illusion of influence, the once moderate and conciliatory Berlinguer has taken an increasingly tough stance. At the same time, Christian Democratic leaders have remained obdurate in rejecting Communist participation in the Cabinet.

As his first effort to solve the crisis, Italy's 82-year-old President Sandro Pertini asked Andreotti to try to form a new government. If he succeeds, it will mark the third Cabinet in a row that Andreotti has headed, but the odds are against him. Although a skilled parliamentarian, he does not belong to the Christian Democratic leadership. His party, moreover, sorely misses the masterly negotiating talents of onetime Premier Aldo Moro, who was kidnaped and murdered by Red Brigades terrorists last year.

The Christian Democrats and the Communists together represent about 70% of the popular vote. If they fail to find a face-saving compromise, the result could be a general election well in advance of the one scheduled for 1981. Both major parties have publicly declared that they dislike this prospect; privately they may want it. The Christian Democrats, who made encouraging gains in last year's local polling, hope that they could do even better. For their part, the Communists may reckon that an election soon would be preferable to one in 1981, when their popularity might have declined even further.

The Communist losses in last year's regional elections partly reflected public reaction to atrocities by ultraleftist terrorists, who regard themselves as Italy's "true" Communists. Renewed outbreaks of terrorist violence are unlikely to help Berlinguer at the polls. Last week, for example, Milan's deputy public prosecutor, Emilio Alessandrini, was assassinated by a group linked to the Red Brigades. He was the third terrorist victim in a month and the 34th in the past 13 months. Protesting his murder, Milan's trade unions called a four-hour work standstill during Alessandrini's funeral.

Many Italians fear that calling elections would set the scene for even more terrorism. "This is a period when this country cannot afford to be without political leadership," said a Western diplomat in Rome last week. "The vacuum and confusion created by an electoral campaign could be extremely dangerous.' Predicted Socialist Leader Bettino Craxi: "Early elections would be a concession to the Red Brigades, who want destabilization and chaos in this country."

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