To Candidates, Right Looks Right

Both sides come out conservative on taxes

With the 1978 campaign now rousingly under way, Democrats and Republicans are engaged in furious battle. But on the major issue they have achieved a rare consensus. Both parties are scrambling as adroitly as possible to respond to the tax-cutting fever that is sweeping the nation (see page 48). Historically, this is a Republican cause; yet much to the indignation of the G.O.P., the Democrats have embraced it as well. Since most Democratic candidates can also make full use of the advantages of being incumbents, G.O.P. gains in November are expected to be minimal in the 435 races for the House of Representatives, the 34 contested Senate seats and the 36 governorships. "Opposition to government spending is everywhere," notes Political Consultant Walter DeVries. "Voters are listening to what the candidates are saying, but I suspect they think it doesn't make a lot of difference who they elect." Voters do not care which party cuts the budget, as long as it is done.

The main themes of the 1978 campaign--taxes, inflation, big government --were very much in evidence in last week's scattered primaries. Among the results:

> New York's Democratic Governor Hugh Carey won 52% of the vote in a contest with Lieutenant Governor Mary Anne Krupsak and State Senator Jeremiah Bloom. Spending $1.5 million--ten times as much as either of his opponents--Carey veered sharply to the right during the campaign, emphasizing his efforts to restore fiscal solvency to New York City and his modest state tax cuts. Though playing up his slight stiffening of the juvenile crime laws, he remained firmly opposed to capital punishment. This is the issue that will be stressed by his G.O.P. adversary, Long Island State Assemblyman Perry Duryea, who expects to attract some normally Democratic votes in crime-ridden New York City.

> Connecticut's Democratic Governor Ella Grasso was also challenged by her Lieutenant Governor, Robert Killian, who said that he might consider a state income tax. Grasso countered that she would veto such a measure. She also pointed to three straight years of budget surpluses. She trounced Killian 2 to 1 and is favored to win in November against Republican Congressman Ronald Sarasin.

> Even liberal Minnesota was caught in the tax-cutting tide. In the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's primary for Hubert Humphrey's Senate seat, Congressman Donald Eraser was narrowly defeated by a conservative millionaire businessman, Robert Short. Eraser was one of the few Democratic candidates who still defended costly social programs. Short called Eraser's liberalism a "burden on the people" and urged a $100 billion slash in the federal budget. Even the Republican Senate candidate, Dave Durenberger, is less of a budget cutter than Short, an indication of the upheaval in the once powerful D.F.L.

For political cynics, last week's most gratifying race took place in Nevada, where three candidates hotly competed for the state's one seat in the house of representatives. They all lost to a fourth candidate: the line on the ballot saying "None of the above." Elsewhere there were some more typical upsets:

> Milwaukee Congressman Robert Kasten seemed sure to win the G.O.P. gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin, but he was outcampaigned by Lee Dreyfus, chancellor of the University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point. Calling himself a "Republocrat" and a "political virgin," Dreyfus won handily, even though the solid, conservative Kasten spent five times as much money.

> Former Maryland Transportation Secretary Harry Hughes was once so far behind in the Democratic gubernatorial primary that a Baltimore political boss called him "a lost ball in long grass." Then the Baltimore Sun endorsed him, citing his Mr. Clean image, and Hughes rose dramatically in voter esteem. Still, nobody, not even Hughes, could quite believe the returns that showed him edging out Acting Governor Blair Lee III, whose low-key campaign style earned him the nickname "Blah Lee."

> Florida State Senator Robert Graham had only a 4% voter recognition when he decided to run for Governor. What to do? He worked at 100 different blue-collar jobs over the summer. Press coverage jumped as the perspiring millionaire real estate developer went from lugging lumber to cleaning bedpans to shoveling horse manure to fixing pipes. He finished a close second and will face Attorney General Robert Shevin in a runoff on Oct. 10. Shevin is considered ahead, but he is running scared.

In many other states, the primaries are long past and candidates are well into their election campaigns.

One of them has found that even the surefire tax issue has to be handled with at least a little care. Illinois Republican Governor Jim Thompson, who had been considered a shoo-in for re-election over Democratic State Comptroller Michael Bakalis, decided to get some extra mileage from the tax revolt by putting a non-binding proposition on the ballot asking voters if they wanted a ceiling on state taxes and spending. The proposition required 589,000 signatures in 35 days. Corners were cut by zealous party workers, who were paid $100 for every 750 signatures collected. Names of the dead, the missing and the nonexistent appeared on the petitions, recalling nothing so much as the very Cook County practices that Thompson had prosecuted while state's attorney.

Thompson has not been personally implicated in the improprieties, but he certainly was embarrassed by them. Because of the uproar over the petitions, Bakalis is given a fighting chance of upsetting Thompson. At the very least, Thompson's chances for the 1980 G.O.P. presidential nomination have been damaged.

Calling himself a "born-again tax cutter," another presidential hopeful, California Governor Jerry Brown is making up for time that had been lost when he opposed Howard Jarvis' Proposition 13. The day it was overwhelmingly approved by California voters, Brown became an instant convert, explaining: "If you want a Governor who makes decisions, then you are going to get a Governor who makes mistakes." His Republican opponent, California Attorney General Evelle Younger, also had to make amends with the voters since he too had been a lukewarm supporter of Proposition 13.

Brown is having less trouble with Younger, known as "mashed potatoes" because of his bland campaigning, than with his onetime liberal supporters. Asks Shirley Wechsler, executive director of Americans for Democratic Action in Southern California: "Why should the 20% of the electorate identifying themselves as liberals vote for the Jarvisized Democrats?" Brown replies evenly that it is possible to "move left and right at the same time."

Many Democratic candidates have been carefully and sometimes bluntly keeping their distance from the leader of their party, Jimmy Carter, because of his low rating in the polls, though this seems to be changing. An ABC-Harris poll last week gave him a 42% approval rating, up from 30% in August. In Texas, where the President is especially unpopular because of his natural gas bill, Rosalynn made some campaign stops over Labor Day weekend, the first of several appearances scheduled for the First Lady this fall. Cool, poised and unflappable in the wilting Texas heat, she explained that the White House understood why local candidates had to take stands that appealed to their constituents. There were no hard feelings, she insisted, back in Washington.

That was quite a concession since one Democratic Senate candidate on whose behalf she came to Texas, Congressman Robert Krueger, has cast only a few more votes for the President's programs than has his opponent, G.O.P. Senator John Tower. But Krueger is friendlier than the Democratic candidate for Governor, John Hill, who refused to be even seen in public with Rosalynn. Earlier in the campaign, Hill's G.O.P. adversary, Drilling Contractor William Clements, had tossed a rubber chicken at him during a banquet with the warning: "I'm gonna hang the Carter Administration around Hill's neck like a dead chicken."

With Carter far from popular, G.O.P. presidential hopefuls are using the 1978 campaign season as a kind of preliminary heat to 1980. The consensus among political experts is that Ronald Reagan, despite his 67 years and his many political scars, is out ahead. He plans 75 appearances in 25 states before the November election--a crushing schedule for any politician at any time of life. Reagan was trying to heal party wounds last week when he met with Gerald Ford, John Connally and other G.O.P. heavyweights at functions in Houston and Dallas. For the first time since their bitter primary struggle for the presidency, Reagan and Ford exchanged compliments and laughed at each other's jokes.

Almost every Republican with presidential ambitions has been making the trek to New Hampshire, which holds the first primary in the nation (Feb. 26, 1980). Illinois Republican Philip Crane, so far the only declared G.O.P. presidential contender, has made half a dozen swings through the state. Some local Republicans have informed Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker that they would like to start organizing for him, but Baker is now concerned with winning re-election by a big margin in Tennessee. The moderates are ready to support Ford, but if he decides not to run, they are prepared to back former CIA Director George Bush.

One potential candidate who might catch on fast is New York Congressman Jack Kemp, co-sponsor of the Roth-Kemp bill, which would cut personal income taxes by 33% over a three-year period. He has been traveling around the country to test the political waters and has found them agreeable. "Kemp makes a striking appearance," says John Simms, executive director of the Mississippi G.O.P. "Even though he uses words like macroeconomics, his examples hit home. Besides, he has the hottest issue going."

Democratic aspirants must be more circumspect because a member of their own party is in the White House and has ample power to retaliate against upstarts. Though denying he is interested in the presidency, Ted Kennedy had been making all the appropriate moves in case he should change his mind. Kennedy is making sure he stays in the public eye. While attending a health conference in Russia, he met with Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev and urged him to take steps to improve relations with the U.S. As Kennedy understood it, the Soviet boss agreed to review the cases of 18 families who have been refused permission to emigrate. Later, the Senator met with a group of dissidents, including Andrei Sakharov and the mother and brother of Anatoli Shcharansky, who has been sentenced to prison for his protests.

On returning to the U.S., Kennedy offended the Soviets by announcing the good news about the families at a press conference. Pravda retorted that "certain American politicians" who interfere in Soviet domestic affairs would be "resolutely turned down." That rebuff does not necessarily mean that the families will not eventually be allowed to leave, but it will be on Soviet terms--a reminder of the perils of mixing domestic politics with foreign policy.

At this point, Kennedy seems to be emerging as the Democratic alternative to Carter if the President's troubles increase in the months ahead. But whatever Kennedy does is still incidental. Ultimately, only Carter can make or break his presidency. qed

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.