The Voters: We Want Teddy!

A TIME poll shows Chappaquiddick is a fading issue

Chappaquiddick. It is supposed to be the big hurdle between Ted Kennedy and the presidency. But a new TIME poll shows that 79% of American voters think that the time has come to put aside the incident and judge the Senator on what he has done in the nine years since then. More than 75% state flatly that Chappaquiddick would not be enough to sway their vote against him if they felt that he were the best man. Despite Kennedy's denials, a majority of the voters think he will run for President. Moreover, Democrats currently favor him over Jimmy Carter by a huge margin for their party's nomination in 1980.

These are the findings of a national telephone sampling of 1,004 registered voters conducted for TIME on Aug. 2 and 3 by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc. The poll shows that if Democrats were given a choice now, 58% would pick Kennedy and 30% Carter as their nominee. The Senator also would win a three-way race that included California Governor Jerry Brown. The outcome, as indicated by the poll: Kennedy 49%, Carter 21%, Brown 19%. The support for Kennedy ranges broadly among all types of Democratic voters.

Kennedy, the poll shows, would handily beat Gerald Ford in an election today by 47% to 41%, but Carter would lose to Ford by 44% to 35%. Kennedy would carry the South; Carter would not. Of those who voted for Carter two years ago, only 60% say they would do so now, but 70% of them would vote for Kennedy.

Kennedy's strength reflects a sharp decline in voter concern over the incident on the Martha's Vineyard bridge that many thought would ruin his career. Public sentiment could change, of course, if Kennedy became a candidate for President and Chappaquiddick were raised as an issue. But, at this point, only 11% of those surveyed are bothered a lot by the fact that he was at a party with a group of single women on that night in July 1969; only 15% say they are greatly disturbed by his having gone off alone with Mary Jo Kopechne. The greatest concern, expressed by about 40% of those polled, is that he waited until morning to report the accident to police and did not immediately tell the whole story about it to the public. But the people questioned believe, by 42% to 35% (with 22% not sure), that he did eventually report it truthfully.

People say by 56% to 33% that the Chappaquiddick incident does not reveal a basic flaw in Kennedy's character. More think that Kennedy would be better in times of crisis than Carter would be. The low degree of concern about the incident reflects the arrival of a post-Chappaquiddick generation of voters: the youngest people polled are the least concerned.

Kennedy has been an outstanding Senator, say 84% of the Democrats and 75% of all voters; he is also a loyal party man, say 87% of the Democrats and 83% of all voters. Only 29% of the Democrats and 38% of all voters characterize him as "too liberal." But 35% feel that his relationship with his wife raises questions about his fitness for the presidency, and 60% fear that if he were elected he would be assassinated.

Kennedy comes out on top in his split with Carter over national health insurance: by 40% to 24%, the voters surveyed agree with Kennedy that the President's program is inadequate. In handling the economy, only 12% of those polled express much confidence in Carter, whereas 34% say they would have a high degree of confidence in Kennedy's managing the economy if he were President. The voters show a similar faith in Kennedy's ability to deal with foreign affairs.

The attributes used to describe Kennedy are very different from those applied to Carter. Voters give Kennedy high marks for being experienced, knowing how to get things done, being a strong and effective leader and inspiring confidence--the very qualities on which Carter is ranked the lowest. On these questions of competence, Carter gets the top grades from less than 10% of those surveyed. The President, on the other hand, is considered to be strongly religious, morally upright, honest and a good family man--the areas where Kennedy ranks the lowest. About half of those polled, including 63% of the Democrats and 59% of those under 35, went so far as to say that Kennedy would make an "outstanding" President. Only 33% said he would be unacceptable to them, citing his liberal views and their doubts about Chappaquiddick.

The poll augurs badly for Jerry Brown. Even in the West, he would get only 20% of the Democratic and independent vote in a three-way battle for the nomination, with Kennedy getting 48% and Carter 15%. Brown has particular problems getting the votes of blacks and women. Brown would be acceptable as President to only 36% of those surveyed and unacceptable to 34% (29% say they have no opinion about Brown). Interestingly, he is least liked in his own backyard: he would be unacceptable to 49% of those in the West.

In all, the survey is a dramatic demonstration of Kennedy's strength. He still denies that he will run--but only 23% of the voters believe he means it.

Is it time to put Chappaquiddick aside and judge Kennedy by what he has done since? Percentage of those who say yes:

Democrats Republicans Independents

86% 68% 81%

If the Democratic Convention were held today, whom would you prefer as the party's nominee?

Democrats Independents

Kennedy 49% 33%

Carter 21% 20%

Brown 19% 26%

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