Carter Is Still Losing Support

Americans like him personally--but not many of his policies

If the 1976 presidential election were held again, there would be a different winner: Gerald Ford by a solid margin. That is the finding of a survey of 1,020 registered voters completed last week by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc. Of the Democrats, Republicans and independents who were queried by phone, 45% favor Ford, 37% say they would vote for Carter and 18% are undecided. A surprising 28% of the Democrats say they would now vote for Ford; 17% are not sure. Further, Carter has lost the independent vote by 2 to 1 and is even edged out by Ford in the South. Both groups were vital for Carter's election victory in 1976.

The survey portrays a President in considerable trouble on a wide variety of issues (see chart) as he approaches the halfway mark of his first term. Of the respondents, 37% say they think less well of him now than when he first took office; only 11% think better of him. Moreover, Carter's image of trust has blurred. While 46% think he is a leader who can be trusted, 49% have doubts about him.

Carter is fast losing ground among voters with his economic policies. More surprising is the vote of no confidence in his foreign and defense policies. Until his recent get-tough approach toward the Soviet Union, his actions were too dovish for much of the electorate. Only a minority of those who expressed an opinion (44%) think he has been effective in dealing with the Russians. Responding to a related question, 48% find his policies too soft, 1% too hard, 36% just about right. More than half (53%) favor helping African countries threatened with rebellions aided by Russians or Cubans; 28% are opposed, and 19% uncertain.

Carter's decisions to cancel the B-l bomber and shelve the neutron bomb were decisively rejected in the survey. A startling 56% of the respondents feel that any treaty with the Russians limiting nuclear weapons would be too risky. Only 32% favor a new SALT agreement. Although Carter counts the Panama Canal treaty a distinct success, the voters who were polled feel otherwise. By 50% to 33%, they consider it a mistake.

Reaction is more favorable to Carter's Middle East policies. One out of two people questioned believe that Carter's moves will contribute eventually to a settlement, while 24% maintain that he has hurt the chances for peace. A majority (55%) are persuaded that the Carter Administration has been equally fair to Israelis and Arabs; 18% feel he has sided too much with Israel; 6% think he has favored the Arabs. But his sale of arms to Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia is disapproved by 49%. They believe it jeopardizes peace; 26% feel that it would encourage a settlement.

The chief immediate beneficiary of the President's slide in public esteem is Senator Edward Kennedy, whom the Democrats polled prefer over Carter as their next presidential candidate by a whopping 60% to 28%. Though Kennedy is a well-known figure who would naturally pick up Carter defectors, his popularity also suggests that voters may be ready to forget Chappaquiddick. Even among conservative Democrats and independents, Kennedy outpolls Carter, 53% to 32%. On the other hand, the President handily beats California Governor Jerry Brown, 49% to 30%, suggesting that an individualistic, bravura style may be losing favor with voters. Carter also edges out Republican Ronald Reagan, 44% to 41%. This showing may indicate why Republicans polled prefer Ford (46%) over Reagan (37%) as their 1980 nominee. They are looking for a winner rather than ideological purity.

Midterm doldrums are nothing new for a President, and the survey demonstrates that Carter has some residual strength that may cause him to rebound before the 1980 campaign season. For example, while increasingly doubtful of his leadership qualities, the respondents seem to like him personally better than ever. Sixty-nine percent find him attractive and appealing; 21% feel the opposite. Though many Americans take issue with his specific actions, they seem to approve of his general approaches.

Somewhat contradicting their lack of trust, a large majority of the sample believe he is advancing the cause of world peace and providing moral leadership. A majority also think he is running an open Administration and succeeding in putting women, blacks and other minority members into positions of power. This contrasts, however, with the fact that only 23% support affirmative action programs for women and minority students at universities, while 71% oppose them. Voters also reject, 46% to 39%, policies giving preference in hiring to women and minorities. While denounced in some quarters as demagoguery, Carter's recent attacks on doctors and lawyers are generally applauded. Two out of three voters polled agree with his criticisms.

The survey indicates that in trying to recover from his current slump, Carter has taken the right approach by exercising more decisive and hawkish leadership overseas. This may prove less difficult than what voters want him to do at home: curb inflation. There remains a reservoir of public good will that the President can still tap; at issue is his competence. If voters ultimately reject him, they will do so, apparently, with reluctance.

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