Attempted Coup or No Coup?

For the puzzled Dominicans, that is the question

Even as the early voting returns started trickling in last week, a trend in the presidential balloting was becoming apparent. In his attempt to win an unprecedented fourth term, Dominican Republic President Joaquin Balaguer was slipping further behind his principal challenger, Antonio Guzman of the Dominican Revolutionary Party. By 4 a.m. on the day after the election, with about one-fourth of the ballots counted, Guzman was leading by 326,076 to 218,073.

At that moment, an army officer with soldiers burst into Santo Domingo's electoral commission headquarters and declared: "This is now over! Get out!" Technicians broadcasting the results were ordered to cut their signals; radios and television sets throughout the country went dead. As word spread of the army's intervention, the country of 5 million was thrown into confusion. Had a coup taken place that would invalidate the election and keep Balaguer in power?

The armed forces immediately denied that there had been a coup, stating in a communique that "false rumors are being spread by the enemies of peace." Yet Santo Domingo had the look of a city in the midst of military takeover. Troops patrolled the streets of the capital as apprehensive Dominicans remained safely inside their homes.

Some knowing Dominicans insisted that the invasion of electoral headquarters was an impetuous decision by Santo Domingo Police Chief Neit Nivar Seijas. According to this theory, the top cop, a veteran backer of Balaguer, panicked when he saw the voting returns running against his boss. Balaguer denied this. The army's interference, he explained after nearly two days of silence, was the fault of a mere lieutenant who decided, on his own, to safeguard the ballots after he had heard rumors of a planned coup.

While the country was trying to figure out just what had happened, officials of the President's Reformista Party were claiming victory. But so was Guzman. The wealthy 67-year-old rancher and coffee planter told a news conference: "It is up to the electoral board to declare me the winner. We will not allow the official election results to be altered." Manuel Joaquin Castillo, head of the board, insisted that no one had yet won and at week's end announced that the counting of ballots had resumed. He warned his countrymen, however, that the tally "might take ten or 15 days--or longer."

Whatever the real story behind the army's halt of the tabulating, Dominicans had good reasons to suspect a coup in support of the President. No group has benefited more from Balaguer's long tenure than military officers; with their luxurious homes and flashy cars, they rank among the wealthiest Dominicans.

Now nearly blind at 70, Balaguer came to power after the 1965 civil war, in which U.S. troops, later backed by units from other members of the Organization of American States, intervened to prevent what seemed like an imminent Communist takeover. Under Balaguer's relatively democratic rule, the country at first made impressive economic gains. The gross national product, for instance, rose an average of 10% annually from 1970 to 1975. But in recent years sharp increases in the price of imported oil coupled with a fall in the world price for sugar, the country's main export, have meant economic disaster. Unemployment has hit 20%.

Balaguer is widely blamed for these conditions, as he is for the country's rampant corruption. While his own honesty has rarely been questioned, he seems to have done little to check the graft of other officials and the military. Exploiting Balaguer's liabilities, the Dominican Revolutionary Party, a centrist movement despite its radical name, seems to appeal to many Dominicans as a fresh alternative to the ailing incumbent.

Although the U.S. has had close ties to Balaguer, Washington was clearly upset by the possibility of a coup. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance last week sent Balaguer a tough personal message warning that "subversion of the election process would have serious effects on our bilateral relations." These warnings apparently had their effect. In his radio address, Balaguer seemed to accept the likelihood of defeat and vowed that "constitutionality will not perish in my hands." The troops patrolling the capital were then ordered back to their barracks.

Despite these developments, there are lingering fears that the military might still be tempted to overturn a Balaguer electoral defeat. A spokesman for Guzman, however, warned that his party "will oppose force with force." For the Dominican Republic, at peace for the past twelve years, this would mean a new civil war. And even if the generals allow Guzman to take office as President, they are certain to remain a continuing challenge to his authority.

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