De Gaulle Had a System

Much of the uncertainty about the outcome of the French elections can be blamed on or credited to Charles de Gaulle. Seeking in 1958 to put an end to the revolving-door regimes of France's postwar period (26 different governments in twelve years), he scrapped proportional representation.

In its place De Gaulle introduced the country's unusual two-round electoral system. Basically the system is designed to winnow out fringe-party candidates in the first-round vote, so that only larger parties survive for the second round.

In theory -- and so far in practice -- the parties that win Round 2 command broad enough support to form stable governments.

For the first round, on March 12, a total of 4,268 candidates will be running for 491 National Assembly seats. But only those who emerge with at least 12.5% of the votes of the registered electorate in their district may enter the second round, on March 19. Then the bigger parties will begin their horse trading. Candidates from the centrist parties backing President Valery Giscard d'Estaing have already pledged to bow out in the second round in favor of Gaullist candidates who get more votes in the first round; the Gaullists have promised to do the same for centrist candidates who beat them.

In the past, such deals have made the second-round vote a direct duel between right and left in most districts. This year, however, Communist Chief Georges Marchais has threatened to upset the usual pattern. In his feud with Socialist Franc,ois Mitterrand, he has warned that if his Communists do not gain at least 21% of the vote in the first round, he may not withdraw his candidates in districts where Socialists run ahead. In many areas this would result in three-way races -- Communists v. Socialists v. center-right candidates -- a situation that would give the non-leftists an overwhelming advantage. According to one poll, if the Communists do withdraw in favor of Socialist front runners, the left coalition could win 257 seats in the Assembly -- well above the 246 needed for a majority. But if Marchais keeps his weaker candidates in the running, the left may win only 191 seats, v. 300 for the center-right. And the parties that have held power since De Gaulle instituted the two-round system will keep it.

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