Maxi-Plots Behind a Strange Mini-War

Publicly, Egypt insisted that its bitter four-day mini-war with Libya (TIME, Aug. 1) had been no more than a minor border skirmish. A series of frontier infiltrations and espionage attempts had forced Cairo to teach Libya's erratic strongman, Muammar Gaddafi, a lesson in good manners. Rather like a stern uncle rebuking a wayward nephew, President Anwar Sadat described Gaddafi as "a second Napoleon" and "just a child"--inspiring Tripoli spokesmen to dismiss the Egyptian President as "a Zionist tool."

Privately, Egyptian spokesmen conceded that there was a serious political purpose behind the armored assaults along the border and the series of preemptive bombing strikes at airbases and radar installations. The Egyptians hit Libyan airfields at Al Adem, near Tobruk, Al Kufra and Umm Alayan, as well as a training camp for African "volunteers" near Al Jaghbub, which was attacked by helicopter-borne commandos. According to Egyptian intelligence, reports TIME Cairo Bureau Chief Wilton Wynn, Gaddafi--in cooperation with Ethiopia and with Soviet support --planned to launch attacks on moderate governments all across northeast Africa.

Attempted Coup. The first target --possibly three months hence--was to be Sudan, where President Jaafar Numeiry last year survived an attempted coup. Since then, Numeiry has followed Sadat's example by ordering all his Soviet military advisers back to Moscow. Cairo believes that Libya planned a twopronged assault on Numeiry: an Ethiopian-sponsored uprising in the Sudanese south, combined with Libyan air attacks from Al Kufra. Another target was to be Chad, where Libya has not only seized large chunks of disputed border territory but also supports a leftist insurgent movement that aims to oust President Felix Malloum.

The Egyptians are convinced that Gaddafi was plotting with Addis Ababa to upset the government of Somalia's President Muhammad Siad Barre, who is edging away from his longtime dependence on Moscow as the Soviets move even closer to his archenemies, the Ethiopians. Heavy fighting has broken out between the two countries. The Western Somali Liberation Front, which is supported by Barre, claims to have killed at least 1,000 Ethiopians in savage battles in Bale province. The Somalis say that they have shot down three Ethiopian jets and a transport plane carrying Ethiopian paratroopers over Somali territory. The Ethiopians, who claim that the Somali insurgents are really part of Barre's army, claim to have killed 300 Somalis and knocked out 17 of their tanks.

In Cairo's view, Gaddafi's ultimate target was Sadat himself. The first real clue that something was afoot came two months ago, when Egyptian Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy returned home from Moscow after an unsuccessful mission to improve the cool relations between Egypt and the Soviet Union. Fahmy had protested the Libyan military buildup; the Soviets had bluntly told him that it was none of Cairo's business.

Washington apparently accepts Sadat's analysis of the Libyan plots. Last week the White House announced that --with approval from the strong pro-Israel bloc in Congress--the U.S. will sell Egypt 14 C-130 transports, worth $180 million, to replace aging Soviet equipment. Among other uses, the planes could ferry Egyptian troops to the Sudan if necessary, since the two nations have a mutual defense pact. Cairo will also buy reconnaissance drones and sophisticated aerial cameras. President Carter promised in addition to look after Sudan's "legitimate defense needs." A U.S. military team will fly to Khartoum in August to assess Numeiry's plea for U.S.-built F-5E fighter planes. Requests from Chad will be "considered sympathetically," Carter added.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Government has privately agreed to supply unstated quantities of defensive weapons to Somalia. The bill will be paid by Saudia Arabia, which for years has been trying to woo predominantly Muslim Somalia out of the Soviet orbit. TIME has learned that in exchange for a firm Western pledge of armaments, the Somalis are prepared to order the Russians to vacate their huge missile base at Berbera and withdraw their 2,500 military technicians.

Amid the growing complexity of East-West power games around the Horn of Africa, relations between Cairo and Tripoli remained tense last week, even though the shooting had stopped. At the urging of Arab peacemakers, in particular Palestinian Leader Yasser Arafat and Algerian President Houari Boumedienne, both sides agreed to a mini-summit to settle the miniwar. There was no certainty that either Sadat or Gaddafi--who was mysteriously out of public view during the fighting --would attend. The mood was surly, particularly since losses appeared to have been high for so brief a war.

Among the casualties on the Libyan side, according to reports circulating in the Arab world, were three Russians killed and one wounded among the estimated 1,500 Soviet technicians manning the radar equipment with which Moscow has provided Gaddafi. Cairo claimed to be holding 42 Libyan prisoners; Tripoli said it had captured 60 Egyptians. The Egyptians admitted the loss of two planes, one of which was photographed by the gleeful Libyans, but outside sources monitoring the war counted seven Egyptian planes downed.

Libyan broadcasts warned listeners of the need to "keep a finger on the trigger." One high Egyptian official told Correspondent Wynn: "The shooting has stopped. But this thing will go on and on so long as Gaddafi is in power."

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