Ian Smith's Last Stand?

"I hope the world will realize what they've done to this place . . . but we'll fight, fight, fight to the end, for Rhodesia's our cause."

In a Salisbury discotheque last week, to the pulsating shock waves of an amplified band that seemed as loud as a mortar barrage, "troopies" (soldiers) and their birds were rocking to a song about the country's bad news. It appeared, in fact, that the blues had become an informal national anthem. As gloomy figures on war casualties and economic decline continued to seep in, record numbers of white Rhodesians were moving out. The latest mission to Salisbury by an Anglo-American negotiating team was called a failure by the Rhodesian government.

Finally last week, in an effort to confound his enemies and reinforce his own political position, Prime Minister Ian Smith announced a move that would inevitably delay, if not scuttle whatever chances existed for a negotiated settlement: he called a snap general election the first in three years, to be held Aug. 31. Explained Smith: "It was clear to me that the British believe they are dealing with a divided and weak Rhodesia. I believe we should take action to remove any such illusion."

Even to Rhodesians accustomed to Smith's wily maneuvers, the announcement came as a surprise. Primarily, his action was aimed at heading off a right-wing challenge from the newly formed Rhodesian Action Party (R.A.P.), led by a dozen M.P.s who defected from Smith's Rhodesian Front Party earlier this year. The M.P.s resigned over an amendment to the longstanding Land Tenure Act that contained the Smith government's first important, if belated concessions on segregation. The R.A.P. is determined to limit the number of blacks who may vote and to restrict their political rights to the tribal homelands This hard-line stance has a strong appeal to white voters. But most observers feel that Smith's sense of timing is as acute as ever--and that he will probably win another mandate. "Smith still sees himself as the man who can save the position of the whites in a black-ruled country," says one politician. "If you know Smith, he wants to rule from the grave."

The next step in the Prime Minister's grand plan--and the platform on which he will fight the election campaign--will be to get what he calls an internal settlement." This means forging a multiracial government that would, he hopes, include at least one relatively moderate black nationalist leader, like Bishop Abel Muzorewa or the Rev. Ndabaningi Sithole, both of whom are currently inside Rhodesia. By so doing, Smith reasons, he would be conforming to international insistence that his white minority government give way to black majority rule. Smith's goal clearly, is to prevent the "external" Patriotic Front headed by Robert Mugabe and Joshua Nkomo--the nationalist organization that controls most of the black guerrilla army--from taking over and forming a radical government.

None of the black leaders seem prepared to play Smith's game. "Don't make me laugh," snapped Nkomo. "We mean to push that man out of power and we shall do it." Mugabe said that his guerrillas would fight anybody involved with Smith--regardless of the color of his skin and whether or not he wore a clerical collar. But even the "internal" and moderate black leaders resisted the Smith ploy. Muzorewa said ie was prepared to talk with Smith--but only if the negotiations were based on an immediate transition to black rule Muzorewa added that he did not expect to be taken up on his offer.

Killed Off. Smith's announcement of elections caused consternation in Washington and London. Western diplomats reasoned that a renewed Smith mandate would prove almost nothing since only 7,500 of Rhodesia's 6.5 million blacks are eligible to vote under the present system. The diplomats doubted that Smith could win the cooperation of any major black leaders, and in any case they were convinced that a settlement must include the Patriotic Front.

The Anglo-American initiative broke down over the question of who should hold power during the crucial transition period. The blacks insisted that Smith should step down and relinquish all control over the security forces; Smith will not do that unless law-and-order is guaranteed, and understandably enough, he will not allow the guerrilla forces to take over that function. One possible solution: an international peace-keeping force for the transition period--but the U.S., Britain and several other nations have indicated that they want no part of it.

British Foreign Secretary David Owen concluded that Smith's call for elections had "killed off, for the time being," any chance of a negotiated settlement. At week's end he flew to Washington for discussions with U S Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, but nobody expected another initiative right away. "What we need is a new idea," remarked a U.S. diplomat to an inquiring journalist. "If you ve got one, would you mind sending it over?"

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