Turks, Greeks, Congress and Carter

One of the world's troublesome flash points, the eastern Mediterranean, involves not just two adversaries but four --Greece against Turkey, and the U.S. Congress against the White House. An increasing hazard of this four-way face-off: an open, ugly military confrontation between Greece and Turkey, possibly as early as this summer.

The underlying cause of the trouble is Cyprus. Three years ago, after an Athens-inspired coup against President-Archbishop Makarios, Turkey invaded the island to protect its Turkish minority. A strongly pro-Greek U.S. Congress responded by cutting off military aid to Ankara, which retaliated by taking control of 26 U.S. military installations in Turkey. Congress's action did not make many points for the U.S. in Athens; the Administration was blamed for backing the hated military junta that collapsed after the failure of the Cyprus coup and for not stopping the Turks. The new democratic regime of Prime Minister Constantine Caramanlis abrogated the U.S. Navy's home-porting rights in Greek ports and canceled its military (but not its political) ties with NATO.

At President Ford's prompting, Congress last year eased the embargo against Turkey by allowing it to buy up to $125 million in military equipment, but grant aid was forbidden. Last week Jimmy Carter tried to ease the embargo still further--but Congress said no. The House International Relations Committee rejected an Administration proposal that Turkey be allowed to buy $50 million worth of F-4 Phantoms on credit. Congress has refused to act on longer military-aid proposals amounting to $1 billion over four years.

The congressional action embittered the Turks, who felt that it was an insult to a staunch anti-Communist ally. The rebuff on the Phantoms was particularly galling since Congress last month approved the sale of 18 F-4s to Greece--on credit terms. Meanwhile, the embargo reduced the effectiveness of the Turkish air force by 50%; planes earmarked for NATO service were grounded for lack of spare parts.

Meeting Carter this week in London, Turkish Premier Suleyman Demirel will undoubtedly complain that Greece is getting preferential treatment. Demirel will also stress that no Turkish government can negotiate a Cyprus agreement under U.S. pressure, particularly in the midst of an election campaign so violent that 36 people were killed last week in Istanbul.

Much Expected. Although the Greeks receive about the same amount of U.S. aid for an army only one-third the size of Turkey's, they were furious with Carter for giving any support at all to Ankara. Athenians who danced in the street when the President was elected are beginning to turn on him for being as anti-Greek as Henry Kissinger. Said one member of Premier Caramanlis' government last week: "So much had been expected from the Carter Administration. Instead, there appears the familiar American attitude: Turkey first, then we'll see about the Greeks."

Another issue divides Greece and Turkey: Who controls the Aegean? Homer's wine-dark sea is dotted with 3,049 Greek islands, some of which are only a few miles from Turkey's shores. Two years ago, the U.S. was able to mediate successfully between the two NATO partners when they approached the brink of war in a territorial dispute. Greece hinted it might extend territorial waters from six to twelve miles around each island; the Turks warned Washington that that would be a fighting matter, and the Greeks dropped the idea. With both sides now so angry, the U.S. may not be able to mediate a new feud over oil and air rights in the Aegean, which have frequently brought the two countries close to war in the past two years.

The Aegean crisis began in 1974 after oil was discovered off the island of Thassos. Both nations, which are heavily dependent on foreign oil, began a search for other pools. Athens claimed that each of its islands has a continental shelf. Such a claim would preclude Turkish drilling in much of the Aegean. Nonetheless, the Turks last year dispatched the seismographic ship Sismik1 to carry on oil explorations near several Greek islands; the converted trawler was challenged by Greek destroyers and a battle was narrowly averted. Sismik1 was supposed to sail on another exploratory mission this month, but its departure has been postponed. Ironically, the oil at Thassos is not only of poor quality but is also expensive to exploit, and petroleum experts are skeptical about how much oil there really is. "They think it's Oklahoma out there," says an American engineer. "But it looks like a bummer to me."

Relations between the two countries depend in part on the outcome of Turkey's June 5 elections. Demirel's Justice Party is being challenged by the liberal Republican People's Party of former Premier Bulent Ecevit, who became something of a national hero by ordering the Cyprus invasion. Ecevit has been shot at four times on the hustings and angrily claims that his opponent prefers "pistols to polls." Although the campaign had been marred by violence, the nation was stunned by last week's massacre in Istanbul's Taksim Square, where 150,000 people had gathered to hear pro-Ecevit speeches by leaders of the leftist Revolutionary Confederation of Trade Unions. A group believed to be far-left Maoists began firing at the crowd; 34 of the 36 who died while trying to flee were trampled to death or clubbed by union security guards.

The violence has so fragmented Turkey that it is possible that neither Demirel nor Ecevit will win any kind of mandate. If that happens, the Aegean crisis will continue to fester. Greece's Caramanlis, for one, is so pessimistic about the situation that he has begun to feel that the Turkish military--the generals who plotted the hated attack on Cyprus --may turn out to be the only stable group with whom Greece can deal.

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