Digging In for a Crisis Ahead

"Guns, guns, guns! New shipment just arrived from Germany. Stock up now. Protect your loved ones."

"Murder, arson, rape! Feel safe. Be prepared to save your family."

South Africa's 4.3 million whites (out of a total population of 25 million) are not in a state of panic. But as these newspaper advertisements suggest, there are signs of growing unease. Throughout the country, more than 150,000 new firearms licenses were issued last year, bringing the total to a remarkable 1.25 million. In the northern reaches of the country, near the Rhodesian border, white farmers are also equipping themselves with walkie-talkie radios. To the east, along the Mozambican frontier, others are clearing the bush and attempting to guard against terrorist infiltration.

The net white immigration gain (mostly from Western Europe and from elsewhere in Africa) dropped sharply last year, from 27,000 in the first six months to 17,000 in the six months following the Soweto riots. Citing "unfavorable political developments in southern Africa," the government of Prime Minister John Vorster last month an nounced a tough new budget, with $640 million in new taxes (out of $8.9 bil lion) and record-breaking defense costs. A White Paper on defense, issued during the current session of parliament, calls for an expansion of the armed forces, an extension of the draft for white males (from one year to two), and voluntary recruitment of white women and black men. The need, concludes the report, is for a "total national defense strategy, because South Africa is at war, whether we wish to accept it or not."

The past year has been deeply troubling for South Africa. The rioting that began last June in Johannesburg's black ghetto of Soweto (pop. 1.2 million) and quickly spread to other black townships around the country has taken 500 lives so far--and sputters on. Guerrilla raids continue in the northern portion of Namibia, which South Africa has administered (as South West Africa) since 1920. Under international pressure, South Africa is now trying to set Namibia free, but only under a moderate government that would cause the South Africans no trouble. The hitch is that the only Namibian political group recognized by the United Nations is SWAPO (for South West African People's Organization). But SWAPO, a radical guerrilla group backed by Angola, is excluded from Pretoria's independence plans, and has vowed to fight until it can bring about a government of its own. At the U.N., South Africa has thus far escaped efforts by black Africa--supported by the Communist bloc--to impose an arms embargo against it and a ban on foreign loans and investment; but that fight is likely to go on.

Ox-Wagon Circle. Small wonder, then, that white South Africans think about going into laager (literally, camp), an expression that comes from the days when the Afrikaner pioneers would roll their ox wagons into a circle to fight off attacks by Zulu or Xhosa warriors. The government is fast reinforcing its emergency powers. Vorster said last week that "discrimination will be eliminated in South Africa," but he meant merely that the government intends to modify some of the abrasive signs of "petty apartheid"--like separate facilities (toilets, buses, etc.) for blacks and whites. He emphasized that his government is committed to "creating chances and opportunities" for nonwhites, but has no intention of trying to create a multiracial society. What is not negotiable, in the government's view, is the preservation of white power. Says South Africa's Foreign Minister, Roelof ("Pik") Botha, who belongs to the verligte (literally, enlightened, or moderate) group in Vorster's National Party: " We cannot be expected to negotiate our own downfall. I'm willing to go to war if necessary [to preserve the present system], but I won't fight for an apartheid sign in a lift [elevator]." As for U.N. demands for fundamental political change, Botha insists that South Africa will not accept "any sanctimonious strictures on our domestic affairs." To Vorster and his colleagues, the danger is the spread of Communism to southern Africa, and they are determined to fight it.

More than ten months after the Soweto riots, the government has done al most nothing to head off a possible racial showdown. Some integration in sports has taken place, and nowadays if a black is called a kaffir (nigger) he can sue for damages. "Complete internal autonomy" has been offered to the country's nine black homelands (one of them, Transkei, has been nominally independent since last year). But the freedom of these ministates is purely theoretical: South African white police are ever present to "ensure public peace and internal security." The government has pledged to give urban blacks "greater control over their affairs," but they cannot expect to vote anywhere except in the homelands. A political voice for blacks, coloreds (people of mixed race) and Asians in the affairs of white South Africa is, in the words of one Cabinet member, "just not on--now or ever."

In short, the Afrikaner-dominated National Party, which controls 123 of the 171 seats in the House of Assembly, remains committed to kragdadigheid (forcefulness) against all opstokers (troublemakers). The "pass laws"--which control the movement of blacks into white areas--cost South Africa no less than $130 million a year to administer, and last year more than 250,000 blacks were convicted of violating them. The fine for a pass violation has been doubled, to $115, a hefty bite for blacks, whose per capita income averages only $15 a month (v. $240 for whites). "Imagine what the money spent on enforcing pass laws could do for blacks if it was applied to housing in Soweto," says Helen Suzman, probably the most outspoken opposition member of parliament. There is a waiting list of 20,000 for houses in the huge township, but authorities built only 596 last year. Despite this backlog, Soweto administrators announced last month that they will spend $1.5 million to build eleven "riot proof liquor stores to replace the ones burned out in last June's rioting.

Soweto is typical of the black ghettos that surround South Africa's white cities, providing the cheap labor that keeps the country alive. Only one house in five has electricity, only one in ten has indoor running water, and only one in 20 has an indoor toilet. Thousands of married workmen, who see their families in the homelands only once a year, live in huge dorms that resemble prison-camp barracks. Since the riots, more than 1,100 blacks--most of them youths under 18--have been convicted of charges stemming from the troubles. Nearly 400 more are awaiting trial, and post-midnight raids by security police on homes of suspects are frequent. Every act of repression creates a new, embittered young rebel. Says the father of one Soweto student: "Today the children have only rocks to throw, but one day they may have guns. That will be a sad day, for it will mean all hope is gone and there must be war against the whites."

Fear over the future is in part responsible for South Africa's present recession. Real economic growth was only 1.4% last year, the lowest since 1945. Inflation has run at a rate of 11.9% over the past year. A leading South African banker admits: "Regardless of what the government says, we have at least 1 million black unemployed, and another million underemployed. That's nearly a quarter of the work force, and a hungry black man is not a happy black man. The political implications are obvious." Adds a U.S. banker in Johannesburg: "We're watching things very closely. I wouldn't hesitate to invest five-year money here, but anything over ten years I'd think twice about."

Far more than the white Rhodesians or other African colonists, the South African whites have a legitimate historical claim to their land. There are many who are appalled by the continued subjugation of the nonwhite majority. On their own these moderates might be prepared to make significant concessions, even though they too may be fearful about their future should a black majority come to power. In any case real political control remains in the hands of verkrampte (literally, cramped, or narrow-minded) Afrikaners--a proud, stubborn, Calvinist people with an imperious sense of their divine mission to lead Africa out of darkness. Reports TIME Correspondent Lee Griggs:

"What many Afrikaners believe to be their policy of raising the black man gradually to a better life is perceived in the outside world as a simple sham to preserve the perks of the good life for the whites. Preservation of Afrikaner political power has determined the country's policies for nearly 30 years, and resistance to change is part of that policy. Thus television did not come to South Africa until last year, lest it intrude alien ideas, particularly among blacks. Movies are censored and books are banned by the thousands to keep what Pretoria considers immoral or subversive ideas away from black and white alike."

Griggs, who has been covering South Africa off and on since 1959, concludes: "John Vorster has repeatedly promised change, and then has brought about nothing more than minor cosmetic revisions. In the meantime, he has built up a police-state apparatus that gives his government virtually unlimited powers of detention without trial. These are not the moves of a man who is about to compromise. Rather than relieve the mounting pressure, he appears to be preparing to confront it, and possibly turn South Africa into a battleground. If Vorster opts for repression over conciliation, I am afraid I cannot be very optimistic about the long-term prospects for this rich, beautiful country."

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