Mysterious War in a Quagmire

Torrential rains turned much of Zaire's mineral-rich Shaba region (formerly Katanga province) into a knee-deep quagmire last week. The downpour further obscured the mysterious war being waged between about 2,000 invaders from neighboring Angola (TIME, March 28) and the forces of Zaire's autocratic President Mobutu Sese Seko. After launching a few pinprick air raids, Mobutu's Army Chief of Staff Bumba Moaso Djogi claimed that the intruders were in retreat, "abandoning thousands of corpses" behind them.

Western sources, doubting that so many troops were involved, sketch a very different picture. According to them, the invaders--exiled followers of the late Katangese separatist Moise Tshombe--have consolidated their hold on much of the border region of southwestern Zaire. By week's end the insurgents were reported to be in control of the town of Mutshatsha, a staging area for Mobutu's forces some 70 miles from Zaire's rich copper belt. Officials denied it, but speculation mounted that the town had indeed fallen, cabled TIME Correspondent Erik Amfitheatrof when the government suddenly cancelled a flight there for journalists.

In any case, Mobutu's army, sapped by desertions and flagging morale, has done little to dislodge the rebels. Facing shortages of aviation fuel, trained pilots and transports, Zaire's forces are hard put to supply the 3,000 government troops now in Shaba, nearly 1,000 miles from the capital in Kinshasa.

Cuba's wandering minstrel of anti-imperialism, Fidel Castro, last week flatly denied that any Cuban soldiers were involved in the fighting. Western diplomats agree that there is no firm evidence of Cuban involvement. But there is speculation that the Katangese--who are purportedly led by General Nathaniel Nbumba, the former Katangese police commissioner--may have been trained by Cubans in Angola. Almost certainly, the Angolans and their Cuban allies tolerated or approved the invasion plans. Mobutu, insisting that the rebels are "led by Cubans," appealed for an emergency airlift of arms and ammunition from the U.S. to stop them.

Washington had already dispatched $1.2 million worth of parachutes, spare aircraft parts and uniforms to Kinshasa. But the Carter Administration postponed action on Mobutu's request in the hope that diplomatic efforts might halt the fighting. After talks with U.S. officials, Nigerian External Affairs Commissioner Joseph Garba pledged that his country would act as go-between. Other black African nations share Nigeria's concern that the fighting could turn into a full-blown war.

Hated Dictator. After leading a long, bloody struggle to unify Zaire in the 1960s, Mobutu is reluctant to make concessions to Shaba's invading exiles. One reason is that income from Shaba's copper mines is vital for his financially shaky country. Another is that any sign of yielding could invite similar demands from other regions of Zaire, which has some 200 tribes. A corrupt dictator, Mobutu is unpopular--even hated--in much of the country. In the wild northeast, for example, he is accused of being responsible for ordering the murder in 1961 of Patrice Lumumba, the region's popular leftist martyr. This rancor has reportedly been translated into aid and recruits for guerrillas. How his enemies will exploit Mobutu's troubles remains to be seen--when the quagmire dries and fighting resumes.

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