Callaghan's Moment of Truth

Is Prime Minister Callaghan's Labor government on the way out? That seemed a real possibility after a bizarre session of Commons last week at which Labor whips ordered their members to abstain from voting on a Labor-proposed motion--which led to a resounding 293-to-0 defeat for the government. Following that odd display of parliamentary tactics, Tory Leader Margaret Thatcher demanded a vote of no confidence, which will be taken at midweek. If the government loses, Callaghan will have no choice but to ask the Queen to dissolve the House and call for new elections within weeks.

Since Callaghan has lost effective control of Parliament, London bookies promptly laid 4-to-5 odds on his defeat. Smart politicians, though, were betting that the avuncular Prime Minister could survive with a vote or so to spare. Since succeeding Harold Wilson a year ago, Callaghan has seen Labor's slim three-vote majority in Commons whittled by death, resignation and lost by-elections to an overall minority of nine. Still, with his party holding a 32-vote edge over the Tories, Callaghan's only fear was the kind of catalytic issue that would unite the Conservatives with the congeries of Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Liberals, Ulster Unionists and splinter M.P.s who hold the balance of power.

That issue may have arisen as a result of last week's unusual defeat for the government. The subject was the annual White Paper on public expenditure. During the debate, the Tories charged that the projected 1% cut in government outlays was too little, too late--an argument that masked Thatcher's aim of forcing elections now, while the Tories are 16 points ahead of Labor in opinion polls. Liberal M.P.s also raised questions. Translation: Liberal Party Leader David Steel wants a larger voice in government decisions for his 13-member delegation. Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, annoyed by Labor's fumble last month on a devolution bill that would grant regional assemblies for their areas, are itching to topple Callaghan.

With antigovernment sentiment on the rise, Labor whips hoped to end debate without a vote on the White Paper by moving to adjourn the House of Commons. When it became clear that Labor could not even muster a majority on that, Callaghan and his grinning supporters stayed on their benches while opposition members filed out to vote. Did the resounding 293-to-0 defeat mean the government's White Paper was dead? Technically no, since the vote was only on whether to go home for a night's sleep.

Callaghan's ploy nevertheless left Tory Leader Thatcher furious. "This is a defeat with dishonor!" she snapped at a press conference. "No government has ever sunk so low--refusing to put its policies to a vote in the House of Commons." Indeed, Thatcher added, "We have no government."

If the Prime Minister squeaks through, it will be in part because he and his rebellious left wing are sure to keep the hated Margaret Thatcher from coming to power. Help may also come from Liberal Leader Steel. Ultimately, however, Callaghan's survival could depend on Ulster M.P. Enoch Powell, the eccentric, disruptive genius of British politics. A former Tory and a bilious critic of Thatcher's, Powell just might rally key Unionist yeas behind Callaghan. In any case, the vote will be dicey. As Callaghan admitted last week, "This is the moment of truth."

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