The Socialists Perform Their Encore

Question: Why is the government like a turkey?

Answer: Because it can't possibly get through Christmas.

That oft-told Lisbon wheeze reflected widespread doubts about how long the government of Socialist Premier Mario Scares could stay in office. Last week, though, the Socialists--like Mark Twain--could claim that reports of their demise had been greatly exaggerated. In crucial balloting for 45,000 local officials and mayoralties, the Socialists confounded their political opponents and, in spite of a divisive intraparty fight, won what amounted to a qualified vote of confidence for Scares.

Dangerous Polarity. The Socialists picked up 33% of the vote, down slightly from the 35% they got in parliamentary elections last April. The moderate Social Democrats remained in second place with 24%. The Communists, running with two minor radical parties under a United People's Electoral Front banner, staged an unexpectedly strong comeback from the June presidential elections, when their candidate got less than 8%, to take third place with 18%. The conservative Center Social Democrats (C.D.S.) got 17%. The big losers were the far-left supporters of Major Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, who drew off many Communist votes in June; this time they got 2.5%.

Scares, who had hinted he might resign if his party was heavily out polled, attributed the Socialists' victory to fear of further instability. Said he: "The people consider that a defeat of the Social ists would endanger the political and economic stability of the country." Yet the pattern of the voting showed that the country is politically divided and dangerously polarized. The conservative Catholic north and the islands of Madeira and the Azores went overwhelmingly to the Social Democrats and the C.D.S., while the agricultural Alentejo region in the south is under the control of the Communists. The Socialists' strength stems primarily from urban areas, where workers' pay and their fringe benefits have been markedly improved.

The Communists' strong hold on the Alentejo (see box) seems certain to hamper the government's control of agrarian reform in the area; attempts to return some farm lands seized by dissident workers to their original owners have already led to violence. Last week five Communists were arrested and charged with defying government authority for organizing demonstrations; in Beja, the newly elected parish council threatened a general strike unless they were released. So far, 2.5 million acres have been nationalized or expropriated under the program and turned into cooperatives and collective farms; another 1.8 million acres are slated to be taken over. The amount of land to be returned is about 50,000 acres, less than 2% of the total expropriated. But the Communist-controlled farm unions object to the parcels chosen to be returned, and Communist Party Chief Alvaro Cunhal warned that the Socialists will now "have to respect the will of the people in the Alentejo." Agriculture Minister Antonio Barreto temporarily suspended government credit to some cooperatives that had not rendered accounts and warned that Lisbon will not allow the Alentejo to become a Communist state-within-a-state.

An even more worrisome problem for Scares' government in the months ahead is Portugal's economy. Inflation is currently running at 19%. A 60% surcharge has been slapped on all imported luxuries, but the country still must import 52% of its food. Meat and vegetables are often missing from grocers' shelves. A popular satirical musical playing in Lisbon called O Bom bo da Festa (literally, parade drum) shows a housewife going through her kitchen and finding only one potato. "We cannot even call the cozido a portuguesa [Portuguese boiled dinner] our own any more," she says. "The meat is Argentine, the potatoes are French, the carrots are Russian." When the government recently proposed that part of the extra month's salary that most workers get as a Christmas bonus be paid in long-term government bonds instead of cash, there was a howl of protest. Asked one irate worker: "How would a General Motors employee like to receive his Christmas bonus in Confederate money?"

Stable Zone. Scares admits that restoring faith in Portugal's economy is his biggest worry. "If we can create economic stability," he told TIME'S Martha de la Cal, "democracy can be maintained. If we can't, then a military dictatorship of the right or the left could be the consequence. That is why I have insisted on the U.S., Europe and the Common Market helping to support our economy so a zone of stability will be maintained on the Iberian Peninsula."

Some help is on the way. Last month the Ford Administration decided to give Scares' government a $300 million emergency loan to help tide it over its immediate budget deficit. Washington also promised to seek congressional approval for U.S. participation in a $1.5 billion consortium with Western Europe to bolster the Lisbon government. The Socialists' strong showing in last week's elections should give a boost to that proposal. But first Scares will have to get his budget through the National Assembly. Since both the Social Democrats and the C.D.S. are opposed to it, his government could be on the line once more.

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