Scramble for Power on Capitol Hill

Can the first Democratic President in eight years find happiness with an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress?

The answer to that question could well be decided between next week and early January. During that period, almost every top job in both the House and the Senate will switch hands--the most sweeping congressional leadership change in the 20th century. The outcome of the various races, one of them bitterly contested, could help determine how much congressional support Jimmy Carter can count on for his programs.

The scramble for power begins next week when the 292-member House Democratic caucus meets to choose by secret ballot a new Speaker and majority leader. The current majority leader, Thomas ("Tip") O'Neill, 63, a big, tough-minded Boston liberal who is committed to Carter, is unopposed in his bid to succeed retiring Speaker Carl Albert of Oklahoma. By contrast, four candidates are in the race for the majority leader's position that O'Neill will be vacating.

Intense Contest. The Senate showdown will come on Jan. 4, the day the 95th Congress convenes. The Democrats will select a successor to the retiring majority leader, Mike Mansfield of Montana, and the Republicans a new minority leader to replace retiring Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania.

The most intense contest is for the House's second most powerful job, majority leader, who is responsible for shaping legislation, getting it through committee and assuring its passage on the House floor. The four major contenders:

PHILLIP BURTON, 50, a prickly, hyperaggressive liberal Californian who began his race for leader more than a year ago and is generally considered the front runner with an estimated 100 votes pledged to him. Burton played a key role in early 1975 in thwarting a move to oust Wayne Hays from his chairmanship of the House Administration Committee. When Hays was forced to resign after the disclosure that he kept bosomy Elizabeth Ray on the Government payroll. Burton lost some support. Though Burton insists, "Tip and I will work very well together," the two men are often at odds; twice, Burton has challenged O'Neill to a fist fight.

RICHARD BOLLING, 60, of Missouri, who has served almost half of his life in the House. Though he is highly respected. Boiling's haughty intellectual manner sometimes ruffles colleagues. A ranking member of the Rules Committee, Boiling is a keen parliamentarian who has written two books critical of the House. If elected. Boiling would push for congressional reform and a liberal approach on domestic matters.

JIM WRIGHT, 53, a Texan who is generally regarded as the most conservative of the candidates. If elected, Wright would help swing the votes of Southern Congressmen and some big-city Democrats.

JOHN McFALL, 58, of California, a respected but quiet legislator who for four years has been the majority whip, a post that would normally put him in line for the leader's job. Though O'Neill probably favors McFall, an easy man to get along with, the Californian's prospects have been seriously damaged by news that he received $4,000 from Tongsun Park, a South Korean businessman.

In the Senate, the Democratic battle for majority leader is of immense importance to the Carter program. The majority leader usually sets the tone and acts as spokesman for Senate Democrats. Leading in this race is Senate Whip Robert Byrd, 58, of West Virginia, a conservative turned moderate. A skillful technician who has parceled out many favors in his six years of running the day-to-day operations of the Senate, Byrd is thought to have 29 votes already lined up--three shy of a majority of the 62 Democrats in the upper chamber.

South Carolina's aggressive, articulate "new" Southerner, Ernest ("Fritz") Hollings, 54, is thought to trail with 15 or so votes. Currently bringing up the rear with perhaps a dozen votes is Hubert Humphrey, 65, who used to preside over the Senate as Vice President. All three would be Carter loyalists, though Byrd and Hollings would probably be less assertive in dealing with the White House than Humphrey. Partly because of concern about his health, partly because his opponents have worked hard to store up lOUs for this vote, Humphrey, still recovering from a recent cancer operation, is given relatively little chance of winning.

On the Republican side. Minority Whip Robert Griffin of Michigan, 53, seems to be far ahead of any rivals for the job of minority leader, his party's top Senate post. Tireless and even-tempered, he suffers from a lackluster speaking style. If successful, Griffin would become the G.O.P.'s highest elected officeholder and, like the party's national chairman, an important articulator of Republican policy. As it happens, the present G.O.P. chairman, Mary Louise Smith, an Iowa housewife, announced last week that she would resign. That sets the stage for a battle royal between conservatives and moderates for control of the party's machinery.

Big Stake. The only remotely serious opposition to Griffin is Tennessee's Howard Baker, 51, who is more acceptable to the G.O.P.'s right wing. With the Republicans out of the White House and looking for a Senator who can serve as a national spokesman. Baker might exert the sort of appeal that the able Griffin seems to lack.

Though Carter has a big stake in the outcome of the various contests, he has not taken sides--and will not, unless he wants to alienate the entire Congress. Determined to be a strong President, he cannot be cheered by the prospect of strong leadership in a rival power center. But if he wants to succeed in such goals as reforming the tax structure and revising the welfare system, nothing less than strong congressional leaders will do.

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