Quebec: Not Doomsday, But a Shock

Honking auto convoys coursed through the streets of Montreal last week, blaring a cacophonous chorus of triumph. At the city's temple of ice hockey, the Forum, 16,000 fans had louder cheers for news of the election results than for goals scored by their beloved Canadiens. At Paul Sauve Arena in the city's Francophone North End, 6,000 supporters of the Parti Quebecois wept, cheered and sang "Tomorrow belongs to us ..." as Pequiste Party Leader Rene Levesque, 54, appeared to claim victory. In an extraordinary election that could affect Canada's future as a nation, Quebec voters had chosen as Premier a man whose party is committed to leading the 6 million citizens of the predominantly French-speaking province out of the 109-year-old confederation. Straining to contain his feelings, Levesque issued a choked declaration: "We hope, in friendship with our fellow citizens in Canada, to arrive at giving us the country that Quebec is."

The election was a catastrophic defeat for lanky, Harvard-educated Liberal Premier Robert Bourassa. In 1973 his party won 102 of the 110 seats in Quebec's legislature and 55% of the total vote by campaigning singlemindedly against the threat of l'independance represented by Levesque and the Parti Quebecois. This time Levesque and his followers took 41% of the vote and 69 legislature seats, including Bourassa's own riding in Montreal. The Liberals, with 34% of the vote, were reduced to a humiliating 28 seats, partly because the anti-Pequiste vote was split with the once dormant Union Nationale, a conservative, largely rural party that captured eleven seats in the House.

Masterly Campaign. The results stunned the entire country. From Ottawa, Pierre Elliott Trudeau--a Quebecker and a bitter enemy of separatism --immediately appeared on nationwide television, grimly asserting that "Mr. Levesque and his party have been granted a mandate to form a government in the province, not to separate that province from the rest of the country. I can only assume the Parti Quebecois will govern while respecting the letter and spirit of the Canadian constitution."

Levesque is still committed to separatism for Quebec, but his masterly campaign strategy was built around barely mentioning the Independence issue. After the 1973 election debacle, the Pequistes had soft-pedaled their platform calling for immediate separation, promising instead to honor the results of a popular referendum to be held within two years of taking office. In the campaign, Levesque concentrated on attacking Bourassa's Liberals for economic mismanagement, ineptitude and untrustworthiness. Said Levesque repeatedly through the campaign: "Our first aim will be to create the best provincial government possible."

Debatable Means. An aloof technocrat who married into one of the province's wealthiest families, Bourassa had done nearly everything he could to squander his huge majority. This year Quebec will have a $ 1 billion deficit, the largest in provincial history. The province's 10.1% unemployment rate is one of the highest in Canada. Bourassa's government also appeared impotent in handling public service strikes and was tarred by an investigation of corruption in the provincial construction industry. It did not help matters when an English-speaking Liberal candidate in Montreal denounced his own Premier during the campaign as "one of the most despised men in the province."

One of the significant factors in sealing Bourassa's fate was reaction to his government's controversial Official Language Act. A badly handled effort to draw support away from the separatists, the law was designed to protect the language and culture of Quebec's 4.8 million French-speaking citizens against the surrounding North American sea of English. But the means were debatable: ordering all schoolchildren who could not speak English into French-language schools. Language tests were imposed to back up the law, and the government reserved the power to limit the growth of the province's English-language schools. The measure outraged not only Quebec's 800,000 English-speaking citizens but also 400,000 recent immigrants from Europe, who were angry that their children were being forced into French schools.

After the first shock of Levesque's victory, Canadians regained a wary composure. Stock markets in Toronto and Montreal staggered briefly, then recovered. Businessmen in Quebec declared that they would await the new government's fiscal and economic policies before deciding what action to take. Politicians elsewhere in Canada were cautious in commenting, although British Columbia Human Resources Minister Bill Vander Zalm observed, "I wouldn't lose any sleep if they separate."

At his first press conference, Levesque tried to reassure Canadians that when the critical vote on separating came--in "the next two, two-and-a-half years or whatever"--he would play fair. There would be only one referendum on the issue during the government's statutory five-year term. Beforehand, there would be a "complete opening of the books" on the economics of independence, and Quebeckers would have "a serene, well-thought-out chance to choose the future." In a canny symbolic gesture, Levesque also said that members of his government would honor a practice fiercely objected to by some Pequiste and Liberal legislators in the past: swearing allegiance to Queen Elizabeth II, Canada's head of state.

Doomsday Thinkers. Despite Levesque's soothing words, Canadians have every reason for disquiet. At the moment, polls show that probably no more than 20% of Quebeckers would vote for separation; yet with all the resources of the provincial government at his disposal, Levesque has increased his party's persuasive abilities. He will be able to stage-manage confrontations with Ottawa in order to make it appear that Quebec would be better off on its own. If a majority voted yes in a referendum, Canada could even be "Pakistanized": the economically depressed Maritimes might be separated from Ontario and the western provinces by more than 300 miles of alien territory. The economic shock would be just as great, since Quebec accounts for fully 23.3% of Canada's G.N.P. With the secession of Quebec, the north-south affinities of the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia might lead them to make overtures to the U.S. for some form of economic union. The possibilities have been discussed by local doomsday thinkers --now all 23 million Canadians must give them thought.

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