THE SHAPE OF THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

What difference does it make who wins? This question is still being asked by many voters, despite ten months of campaigning, three TV debates and hundreds of speeches by the presidential candidates. The following stories describe what the differences might be between having Gerald Ford or Jimmy Carter in the White House for the next four years.

A FORD ADMINISTRATION

There would be no revolutionary changes, no wrenching of Government. He might tinker a little bit, but it would be within the confines of a tight budget.

So says a top Republican strategist about what Gerald Ford would--and would not--do if he is elected. Since Ford has portrayed himself throughout the campaign as the champion of limited Government, he would interpret a victory as proof that the people want Washington to play a diminished role in their lives, and he would surely be emboldened to fight even harder for his policies of restraint.

Ford would try to cut red tape, consolidate existing programs, reduce Government regulation of business and farming, and eliminate bureaucratic overlap. But there would be no bold, new social programs to grapple with the problems of the disadvantaged. Ford believes that the growth of Government spending is not only the main cause of inflation, which he feels is the nation's primary economic problem, but is also a trend that could eventually alter the American free enterprise system beyond recognition. The President says he aims to balance the budget in fiscal 1979, a feat that is probably impossible.

Thus a Ford victory would almost certainly produce a battle of the Potomac: the White House v. the Democratic Congress. On the key issue of fighting unemployment, Congress wants to create public service jobs, while Ford counts on an expanded economy to put more people to work in the private sector. The President's pay-as-you-go philosophy underlies his proposal to cut taxes by close to $10 billion, but only if Congress agrees to reduce spending by a similar amount. Of course, Congress will not--and so it will go. Indeed, the fight has already begun. Congress has raised Ford's proposed budget for fiscal 1977 from $394 billion to $413 billion, and the key budget committees have indicated they will lift the ceiling again if the economy is still sluggish after Jan. 1.

Even if Ford wins an election mandate for the next four years and the Democratic majority in Congress is somewhat diminished, he will have a hard time because the Democrats will have fresh and tougher leadership on the Hill. The Speaker of the House will no longer be the amiable Carl Albert but Massachusetts' Thomas ("Tip") O'Neill, 63, a shrewd liberal who will more aggressively challenge the White House. In the Senate, the favorite to replace Montana's scholarly and restrained Mike Mansfield as majority leader is West Virginia's Robert Byrd, 58, and he is also likely to push harder for social legislation that Ford would oppose. Then, too, if Carter is defeated, the Democrats' party leadership will be up for grabs. Potential Democratic candidates for the presidency in 1980--men like Senators Edward Kennedy and Fritz Mondale and Congressman Mo Udall--can be expected to sponsor bills to catch the fancy of the American voter. Ford probably would fight many of them, and Tip O'Neill, for one, doubts that the Democrats --despite their strength--would have the votes to override presidential vetoes. Says O'Neill: "Are we going into that frustration again? That anxiety? And more of the same old stalemate? It's sickening to think of it."

The President, who voted against Medicare when he was in the House, would oppose the kind of broad national health-insurance plan that liberal Democrats, including Ted Kennedy, have been advocating. Ford's rationale: the program is too expensive and too bureaucratic. Instead, Ford would press his plan to insure some 25 million old and disabled people on Medicare against catastrophically expensive illnesses, guaranteeing that they would pay no more than $750 a year for medical care covered by the plan. In return, Ford would boost fees paid by Medicare patients with shorter-term illnesses.

Instead of a large infusion of federal funds into housing, as many Democrats want, Ford would continue to urge Congress to legislate reductions in down payments for housing built with FHA loans. To help young buyers afford new homes, he would make their FHA mortgage payments relatively low at the start, then gradually increase the amount as time went on.

On energy policy, the President plans to urge the expansion of nuclear-power production and the development of offshore reserves and coal through Government-backed financial incentives and the lifting of certain environmental restrictions. To cut back consumption and give the companies the means and incentive to develop new domestic sources, Ford would continue to advocate the complete deregulation of oil and gas prices. This policy is sure to be fought by the Democratic Congress.

To combat crime Ford would propose laws imposing the death penalty for sabotage, treason, espionage and murder by a "coldblooded, hired killer." He would also continue to endorse mandatory minimum sentences for drug trafficking, kidnaping and airplane hijacking. The President has already suggested a federally backed "insurance" program to compensate the victims of federal crimes, paying them up to $50,000.

On the issue of race, Ford would not press communities --short of court orders--to integrate their schools by busing. Instead, he would extend his search for other ways of integrating schools and preserving their quality.

While he held the line elsewhere, the President would continue to advocate spending enough money to keep the U.S. strategic forces roughly equal to the Soviet Union's. He would fight for building the B-l bomber; the giant, missile-carrying Trident submarine; the multiheaded, super accurate MX intercontinental missile; and the long-range cruise missile (which could be launched at Soviet targets from aircraft more than 1,000 miles away).

Detente, by whatever name, would remain the cornerstone of Ford's foreign policy. He says he would like to retain its chief architect, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. The President not only needs but genuinely likes to work with the intellectual Secretary, who is so unlike him in personality and background.

Although he still gets restless--and bridles at criticism --Kissinger would surely stay on if asked. He feels his job of redefining U.S. relations with the world is still uncompleted because of the interruption of Watergate and the diversion of the election. The Secretary, who has an acute sense of history and his own role in creating it, feels that shortly after the election he can persuade Ford to accept a compromise SALT agreement with the Russians, limiting strategic weapons. Kissinger also believes that an agreement could have been worked out before the election, but Ford held off, fearing that conservatives in both parties would charge him with having made too soft a deal with the Soviets--a claim that could have hurt his election chances. With the backing of Ford, Kissinger would also journey to China to meet Mao's successor, Hua Kuo-feng, work for a peaceful transition of power to the blacks in southern Africa, and urge Western Europe and Japan to join in a long-range plan to aid the emerging nations of the Third World.

If and when Kissinger does leave, there is talk that Ford would replace him with a longtime friend, William Scranton, who has impressed the White House with his work as the Ambassador to the U.N. Among the other possible choices to succeed Kissinger: John Connally (particularly if he helps Ford win Texas); Melvin Laird, an old congressional confidant and former Secretary of Defense; and the versatile establishmentarian Elliot Richardson, now Secretary of Commerce.

As for other personnel shifts, a top presidential adviser says: "I think there will be a considerable upheaval in the Cabinet, a lot of changes within the White House and an infusion of fresh blood throughout the Administration." There is speculation that Treasury Secretary William Simon, Interior Secretary Thomas Kleppe, Transportation Secretary William Coleman and Attorney General Edward Levi will leave early in a new Ford Administration --or perhaps before it even begins. Because Ford tends to promote from within, possible candidates for Cabinet posts include James Baker, 46, the unflappable Houston lawyer who smoothly ran Ford's election campaign, and Richard Cheney, 35, the diligent White House chief of staff. But Ford, who likes to be surrounded by friends, may be slow to strengthen his own White House staff, which on the whole is weak and loaded with old cronies.

In the end, of course, Ford and no one else would be responsible for convincing the American people that his go-slow approach was best. It would be a considerable challenge. By constantly saying no to the Democratic Congress, Ford would risk being accused of negativism. What is more, Ford has only rarely shown the flashes of eloquence--as during his acceptance speech in Kansas City--that he would need to win public opinion to his stand. But one of Ford's greatest assets is his rock-solid confidence. He would begin his Administration utterly convinced that his views were right for America and for the times.

A CARTER ADMINISTRATION

From his first day in office, Jimmy Carter wants to be an activist, innovative President in the boat-rocking mold of Franklin Roosevelt. The U.S., Carter says, is best served by "a strong, independent and aggressive President, working with a strong, independent Congress." It is no mere oversight that he uses "aggressive" only to describe the office he seeks. He regards Congress as "inherently incapable of leadership"--particularly the kind of forceful leadership that he plans.

Confident of victory--some would say too confident --Carter in July assigned twelve bright young men, led by Atlanta Attorney Jack Watson, 38, to work out a blueprint for his first term as President. They have spent months consult ing with him and hundreds of experts for ideas about who should be hired for a Carter Administration and what policies they should pursue. Drawing from a computer bank of more than 1,000 names, Watson has already given Carter a lengthy list of possible appointees to the Cabinet and other key jobs. Now Watson and his team are finishing up a hefty background book of legislative proposals.

If Carter wins, his Administration will probably be full of surprises, both in policies and in personnel. No newly elected President acts quite the way voters expected. Moreover, like any newcomer--more so because he has no experience in Washington--Carter will require a lot of on-the-job training; he should need at least six months to a year to locate the power levers and learn how to pull them. He fully recognizes this problem; it is one reason why he does not expect to come up with detailed proposals to carry out his promises to reorganize the Government and reform the tax structure until he has been in office for about a year. Still, Candidate Carter's speeches and interviews give a rough idea of the thrust he wants to give to his Administration.

The shape of his staff and Cabinet, if there is any yet, is known only to Carter. He has never promised his assistants anything in return for their hard work and has not told them what jobs they might get in his Administration. Carter's silence may account in part for a phenomenon newsmen have noticed: some of his aides seem to lack the usual driving desire to get into the White House.

For his Cabinet and other top personnel, Carter says, he is inclined "to go toward a new generation of leaders," including many women, blacks, other minorities and people with experience in state and local government. Hordes of Democratic veterans of Washington, out of power for years, want very much to be a part of the new Administration. Carter, of course, will call on some of them for appointments. But many of these Democrats are strangers to him, and he feels no obligation to recruit them. In any event, Carter despises self-lobbying. After he became Governor of Georgia, there was a good deal of bitterness when he bypassed some loyal but too pushy supporters in favor of outsiders. Moreover, as Carter frequently boasts, he owes almost nothing to the special interests or political bosses, so they will probably have little influence on his choices.

Trying to predict Carter's appointments is particularly tough, but speculation goes on. Former Pentagon Secretary James Schlesinger, New York City Lawyer Cyrus Vance and Columbia Professor Zbigniew Brzezinski are among the possibilities suggested for Secretary of State. Schlesinger, former Budget Director Charles Schultze and Caltech President Harold Brown have been mentioned as Secretary of Defense. Other possibilities for Cabinet posts include United Auto Workers President Leonard Woodcock as Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare, University of Pennsylvania Professor Lawrence Klein and Congressional Budget Director Alice Rivlin as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Georgia Congressman Andrew Young, a black, as Ambassador to the United Nations or Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.

Carter would select his White House aides primarily from his campaign staffers. They are predominantly people of considerable administrative and political ability but with little or no experience in national affairs. Campaign Director Hamilton Jordan, 32, was Carter's executive secretary as Governor, and may be headed for a similar job at the White House. Jody Powell, 33, would probably continue as press secretary. Administrative Assistant Greg Schneiders, 29, a restaurateur who began as Carter's baggage handler a year ago and quickly became a trusted adviser, has been mentioned by insiders as a possible appointments secretary but has hopes of a bigger job. Transition Coordinator Watson, who is Georgia's unpaid chairman of the department of human resources, could become Carter's chief adviser on legislative affairs.

Carter intends to make a sweeping change in the President's relationship with his staff and Cabinet. He has pledged to downgrade the role of most of his White House staff to "expediters," give new emphasis to the Cabinet as the Administration's chief policymaking body, and use its members as his principal advisers. He has promised there would be no palace guard in the White House, no high chamberlain with the powers that H.R. Haldeman and Alexander Haig had under Richard Nixon. Instead, Carter would give three or four senior aides equal rank and, along with his Cabinet, equal access to him.

In making decisions, Carter has said he would call on his aides and Cabinet members for short oral reports or terse memos pulling together ideas and advice on a problem from as many points of view as possible. Then he would make the final decision essentially alone.

He would act quickly before his electoral mandate--however slim--and honeymoon with Congress are dissipated. In his first 100 days in office, Carter wants to:

Ask Congress for the authority to reorganize the Executive Branch, subject only to a congressional veto. Ultimately, he wants to cut the 1,900 federal agencies to about 200; however, he has disclosed only a few details of his plans. He also proposes creating a Cabinet-level Department of Energy, spinning off an Education Department from HEW, removing the Attorney General from the Cabinet and giving him a term of five to seven years in order to free him from political influence.

Grant a blanket pardon to the draft dodgers of the Viet Nam War. Also, he probably would set up review boards to decide the cases of war-era deserters and perhaps pardon those who went AWOL because of opposition to the war.

Launch a year-long study of the federal tax structure to simplify the revenue system and eliminate some of the deductions, loopholes and tax shelters that are chiefly used by upper-income people.

Other Carter legislative proposals most likely would include national health insurance paid partly from new payroll taxes; a new welfare system that would replace all of the existing programs (food stamps, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, etc.) with a single cash payment that would vary regionally, according to the cost of living; and registration of all handguns. Carter, who says he is liberal on social issues but conservative on many fiscal matters, has pledged to phase in new programs as the economy grows, thus permitting the Government to pay for them and still balance the budget by 1981.

Some time next summer, when the Administration starts cranking up the fiscal 1979 budget, Carter would begin putting the Executive Branch on some sort of zero-based, start-from-scratch budgeting system as a first step toward weeding out obsolete programs. Because Carter would have to send his ideas on the fiscal 1978 budget to Congress by early March, he would not be able to work up a comprehensive alternative to the proposed budget that Ford would leave behind. But the Georgian would try to make some changes that reflected his own priorities, perhaps by cutting the proposed Pentagon budget and raising spending requests for some of the social-welfare programs.

In foreign affairs, he would probably not make major changes in the Ford Administration's policies, at least not at first. The chief shifts would be of nuance and style. Carter says he would act more openly than Ford and Henry Kissinger, give more attention than they have to Western Europe, Japan and Latin America, and continue to pursue detente with the Soviet Union but be a tougher bargainer. In defense, Carter would cut $5 billion to $7 billion from the Pentagon's next budget, hold up construction of the B-1 bomber but continue research on it, and reduce the number of U.S. troops stationed overseas, notably in South Korea.

A major theme of Carter's Administration would be efforts to court the good will of the American people, the press and Congress. As much as possible, Carter plans to maintain "a feeling of open access to me as President." He has promised to "minimize the pomp and circumstance" of the presidency, hold about 20 press conferences a year, and conduct frequent Roosevelt-style fireside chats on radio and TV.

Carter has said that as President he wants to "tap on a truly continuing basis the experience and common sense and sound judgment and high moral character of the American people." Just how he would do this is unclear.

Many people see an advantage in having a President of the same party as the congressional majority. But Carter's dealings with Congress may be difficult--after the traditional honeymoon. He strongly criticizes "dormant" Presidents like Dwight Eisenhower and Gerald Ford for giving--by default --too large a policy role to Congress. Nonetheless, Congress is not likely to stop trying to influence strongly foreign policy or to change the Administration's proposed budgets. To get some of his programs through Congress, particularly those that will offend special-interest groups--many Government employees, for example, will not like his Government reorganization plans--Carter may have to compromise. He often finds that hard. As Governor, when his programs ran into trouble with the legislature, he end-ran his opponents by making televised appeals for public support. If he hits stiff opposition in Congress, he promises to take much the same approach.

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