WHO'S AHEAD STATE BY STATE

Entering the stretch, the election race remains close and volatile. Soundings by TIME correspondents produced the following state-by-state analysis of who was ahead in the presidential contest on Oct. 16:

THE EAST. Jimmy Carter has widened his lead in New York and is ahead in Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maine are leaning to Carter, but his margin in those states is slim, and they could turn at the drop of a gaffe. President Ford runs ahead in Vermont and New Hampshire. Connecticut is leaning toward Ford.

THE SOUTH. Carter has blunted Ford's attempted foray into the region and increased his own leads since the second debate, in part because of the President's mistake on Eastern Europe and the Earl Butz controversy. The Georgian runs ahead in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida. Mississippi and Texas lean toward Carter, and a Republican poll now has Carter leading in the Lone Star State 51% to 45%. The contest is neck and neck in Louisiana, but Carter may break out ahead because Democratic Governor Edwin Edwards is putting his organization behind him. Ford has a razor-thin edge in Virginia.

THE MIDWEST. Carter is solid in Minnesota, West Virginia and Oklahoma as well as Kentucky, although the Playboy interview has hurt him in that state. He holds a narrow lead in Missouri. South Dakota and Ohio are leaning slightly to Ford; Carter is hurt in the Buckeye State by voter apathy and Eugene McCarthy. The President has more solid margins in Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska and North Dakota. Illinois, Wisconsin and now Iowa--where Ford lost a thin lead last week because of the Butz affair--are rated tossups.

THE WEST. Ford is out front in Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming. Two states, Alaska and Montana, are leaning toward him. Carter is ahead only in Hawaii, and he has slipped there. California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada remain too close to call.

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