Carter Fights the Big-League Slump

The polls might be alarming, but the body language was fine. That, at any rate, was the view of Psychologist-Author Ernst Beier (People-Reading), who diagnosed Jimmy Carter's debating style. "Swiveling shoulders and licking his lips," Carter has a definite edge over Gerald Ford, "the wooden Indian." It was one of the best things said about the swiveling Carter campaign all week.

Whether those shoulders and those lips would be enough to put Carter over the top in this week's debate on defense and foreign policy remained to be seen. A sweeping speech by Henry Kissinger before the United Nations (see WORLD) gave President Ford some advance help. Not only could Kissinger point to a probable success in Africa, he also seemed to anticipate some Carter debating points. Ford too soft on Moscow? Kissinger was tough, complaining of "crude attempts" by the Soviets to sabotage U.S. policy. Ford not doing enough to prevent nuclear proliferation? Kissinger announced--without any details--a forthcoming major proposal for stronger international controls. Stalemate in the Middle East? Even though the Administration could not take full credit, at least it could point to the fact that the P.L.O. is in deep trouble, which could conceivably bring a settlement closer. No doubt Carter would have plenty of ammunition of his own: "Immorality" and "secrecy" in U.S. foreign dealings, Pentagon waste, neglect of Latin America. He planned to be briefed over the weekend by former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger, just back from a 23-day visit to China. But in going up against the man in charge of foreign policy, not to mention the Commander in Chief, Carter faced a major challenge.

Confused Image. The Georgian was confronted by a lot of other problems as well. The big question was whether he could arrest the slide his campaign had been taking because of his personal bloopers, lack of a clear line or image and organizational foulups.

Though his crowds were generally large and friendly, they displayed little of the frenzied excitement that certifies they will turn out at the polls. The main lingering residue of the ill-advised Playboy interview was ridicule, perpetuated in a bumper-sticker revision of Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign theme: IN HIS HEART, HE KNOWS YOUR WIFE. Volunteers, with no overriding issue to turn them on and a candidate who frequently turns them off, were hard to come by everywhere. There is some confusion between the relatively conservative Carter who speaks of love, healing and balanced budgets and the angry populist Carter who laces into the fat cats and promises Government programs that sound expensive. Perhaps Carter's worst problem is still the fact that most voters do not feel they know him. Admits Gerard Doherty, the Bostonian directing the Carter campaign in New York: "People still feel they haven't seen him or smelled him."

Right On! There were signs, how ever, that Carter's seemingly compulsive downhill racing has at least slowed. Many state Democratic organizations were finally beginning to mesh with Carter's carpetbaggers and with his Atlanta headquarters. Now that the polls show Carter is in danger of losing, some party leaders are more likely to submerge their jealousies in the interest of capturing the White House. Carter be came markedly more aggressive on the stump, refocusing attention on what is his strongest issue: the economy. He was aided by some dismal statistics showing that 2.5 million Americans last year sank below the poverty line ($5,469 for a nonfarm family of four) and by reports from economists that recovery has slowed during the third quarter (see ECONOMY & BUSINESS). In Buffalo, Carter charged that Ford was "even worse" than Richard Nixon at managing the economy; later he told some unemployed workers that "Gerald Ford has no concern for people who are out of work." In Portland, Me., he asked a crowd of 6,000: "How many of you believe there needs to be a change in Washington?" When his audience roared approval, the suddenly turned-on Carter shouted back, "Right on!"

He also impressed labor leaders with a feeling declaration: "We've all seen in vivid terms the devastating impact of the Nixon-Ford Administration on our lives. The general atmosphere in this country, the spirit of America, the hope about the future, the confidence in our own security, our ability to hold jobs, the inflationary pressures, the unbalanced budget, the absence of an adequate health program, the maladministration of the Government--the abominable failures of Nixon and Ford are there, they're apparent, they're open to be observed by all of us."

TIME correspondents assessed Carter's situation across the country:

MIDWEST. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley resented the Carterites' standoffishness. Only last week Daley agreed "to redouble our efforts." He described Carter as a "great fella in spring training, but now that the league has started, he's in a slump." Pressed for his views on the Playboy interview, Daley dodged, boasting of a fish he had caught. What then did the fish think? Cracked Daley: "If he hadn't opened his mouth, he wouldn't have gotten caught."

The Carter organization has set up 48 headquarters in Illinois, and batteries of phone banks are being installed. Carter appears to have serious problems in Ohio's Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), where a Democrat must usually score big to carry the state. Elsewhere in the Midwest, particularly in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Nebraska, friction between Democratic regulars and Carter's "amateurs" seems to be easing.

NEW ENGLAND. Carter's strategy of sending in outsiders to direct his campaign, bypassing the faction-ridden state parties, has in general worked well in this area, despite continuing complaints about decisions being made in Atlanta. Observes Larry Radway, New Hampshire party chairman: "In Charlemagne's empire he created the missi dominici. They were sent into the provinces to monitor activities and keep people in line. If it worked for Charlemagne, it should work for Carter." Carter's strength in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut remains substantial. His chances of carrying Vermont and New Hampshire are minimal.

NORTHEAST. In New York and Pennsylvania, organizational kinks have been ironed out; in New Jersey, where they lingered longer, Democrats at last appear to be uniting. Carter will probably benefit from the court ruling that ended a recall move against Philadelphia Mayor Frank Rizzo. Freed of his major concern, Rizzo can now rev up his city machine on behalf of Carter-Mondale. But in the big industrial states, the problem appears to be boredom with both campaigns and both candidates. In such states, the larger the turnout, the better for the Democrats.

SOUTH. Carter's homeboy status and religiosity far outweigh any gaffes and organizational disputes everywhere except in Virginia and Texas. In both, Ford seems to be moving up. Texas Democrats took Carter's Playboy confession of mental lechery in stride, but still simmer over his linkage of Native Son Lyndon Johnson with Richard Nixon in "lying, cheating and distorting the truth." Even so, Lady Bird Johnson is still a member of Carter's Texas steering committee. Carter has also lost some support in Mississippi, but Florida seems safely in his camp, and he seems overwhelmingly ahead in Tennessee, Arkansas, the Carolinas and Alabama, as well as in Georgia.

FAR WEST. In his weakest region, Carter's campaign is beginning to get off the ground; but politicians believe he suffered by failing to persuade popular Governor Jerry Brown to take charge of his campaign in California much as John Connally has been entrusted with Ford's fate in Texas. Brown was at Carter's side last week in California and is campaigning strenuously for him both in the state and elsewhere. The race in California is now too close to call.

Given the basic Democratic majority in the country, Carter still has a considerable chance of putting together the electoral votes needed to win. He also has some time left for a personal recovery. Says a campaign aide: "Jimmy's bloopers are not in the range of McGovern's bloopers."

True enough. But added together they produce an image of a man, relatively unknown to most voters, who too often appears vague and uncertain --and whose judgment is not always good. Even a few more Jimmy-sized bloopers could prove to be more than the Carter campaign can stand.

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