The Race Turns into a Dead Heat

Jimmy Carter has blown his lead in the presidential race. Last week he and Gerald Ford were running dead even, each with 43% of the vote; 14% were undecided. Carter led Ford by 6 percentage points in late August, just after the Republican National Convention, and by 9 points in late June. In a parallel shift of perceptions, voters by 44% to 40% now expect Ford to win on Nov. 2. In late August, the voters by 57% to 34% predicted a Carter victory. These are the findings of a nationwide telephone survey of 1,308 registered voters, conducted for TIME by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., from Sept. 25 to Sept. 29.

The standoff turned up by the survey resulted from asking those polled to choose between the two main candidates. When the Yankelovich analysts figured in the effect of the minor candidates, Lester Maddox and Eugene McCarthy, Ford pulled ahead of Carter by 42% to 40%. Maddox is a negligible factor, polling only 1% of the vote at this point. But McCarthy draws 7%, down from 12% in August but still enough to tip the election to Ford.

Seesaw. Thus what once looked like a Carter runaway has turned into one of the tightest presidential races in U.S. history. Making the present situation even more volatile, the Yankelovich study found, 52% of the voters still have not firmed up their final voting plans, in part because so many are unenthusiastic about both major candidates (see box below). Said Pollster Daniel Yankelovich: "Our TIME survey suggests that the race will seesaw back and forth until the very last minute, reflecting the voters' agonized and disappointed frame of mind."

THE TRENDS. Ford has scored great gains with independent voters. He leads Carter among them by 45% to 31%; by contrast, Carter was ahead with this decisive group in August, 41% to 39%. One reason for the shift is the growing belief that Carter is a liberal, which has become a negative label for many voters. Of the people surveyed, 35% regard him as a liberal, up 10 percentage points since August. Only 30% consider him a moderate, down 13 points. Among moderates, Carter now runs almost neck and neck with the President after leading him 51% to 35% in late August.

Carter's support among Catholics has slipped by 3 percentage points to 45%, while his backing among Protestants has remained almost unchanged at 42%. He has picked up strength among nonwhites, 71% of whom now favor him, v. 66% in August. But only 39% of the white voters prefer him, down from 44% in the previous survey.

In terms of geography, Carter carries the eleven states of the Old Confederacy, but not by a wide enough margin to offset Ford's lead of 44% to 41% in the rest of the country. Ford is heavily dependent on the Western states for his support. He is weaker than was anticipated in the Midwest. The breakdown:

CARTER FORD

South 48% 40%

New England 43% 40%

Middle Atlantic 43% 38%

Midwest and border 43% 44%

West 36% 51% CRITICISMS OF FORD. Since August, there has been remarkably little change in voters' opinions of Ford. Half of the people surveyed fault him for pardoning Richard Nixon, 48% say he cannot deal with Congress, 33% believe he is too conservative. But Ford's weekend trips as the guest of U.S. Steel when he was a Congressman are not taken very seriously by the voters. Less than one-third believe that the jaunts raise serious questions about his judgment.

There also has been little change since August in the reasons cited by voters for supporting Ford. Among them: he can be trusted (62%), he will keep a check on the Democratic Congress (59%), he has more experience (56%) and he is a known quantity (55%).

The President's chief asset continues to be his opponent. More than 2 out of 3 Ford voters give as their main reason for supporting him the fact that they have too many questions about Carter.

CRITICISMS OF CARTER. Clearly, the Democratic nominee was hurt by the first debate. By 41% to 28%, the people interviewed said they thought that Ford was the victor. While the debate and a month of further campaigning have, made Carter less of an enigma--35% now regard him as too much of an unknown, down 5 percentage points since August--many voters dislike what they see in him. Of those surveyed, 54% call him fuzzy on the issues (up from 51% in August), 55% say he overpromises (up from 48%), 53% complain that he changes his stands (up from 45%) and 29% agree with the statement that "there is something not trustworthy about him" (up from 22%).

Carter's strengths among his supporters continue to be the desire for a change (83%), a feeling that he will be effective at getting things done (64%) and the promise that he offers a fresh start (60%). The survey also turned up some evidence that Carter's support may be hardening while Ford's is softening. Since the August survey, the proportion of Carter supporters with some doubts about him has dropped 3 points, to 49%; at the same time, the percentage of Ford backers with doubts about him has risen 7 points, to 44%.

THE ISSUES. TIME'S State of the Nation indicator, based on a series of questions that measure people's confidence in America, has slipped 5 percentage points in a month to 39%. In the same period, the percentage of people who expressed great worry about unemployment rose sharply, to 35%, up 11 points. Inflation, cited by 44%, remained the issue that most bothers voters. But Carter has failed to benefit from these shifts because so many voters fault him for overpromising and fear that he might turn out to be a big spender.

By the same token, Ford has not gained notable support from the issues that would seem to cut his way. He is generally regarded as stronger than Carter in foreign policy, but that is a minor issue among voters this year. Only 2% mentioned the Middle East as a problem that worries them; only 1% cited Africa or detente. The abortion issue has won Ford little: more than half of the voters oppose a constitutional amendment banning abortion. Indeed, of the minority who support an amendment, 72% say they would not cast their ballots next month solely on the basis of the abortion issue. For these voters as for the electorate in general, the chief issue continues to be the characters and personalities of the two candidates.

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