Two Helmuts Head to Head

"Possessed by Caesarmania" and "obsessed with power." That is how Christian Democrat Helmut Kohl has recently been castigating Social Democratic Chancellor Helmut Schmidt. One Social Democratic retort, fired off by Party Chairman Willy Brandt, is that the Christian Democrats are "oozing arrogance and stupidity with their upper-class attitudes." Schmidt, whose sharp tongue long ago earned him the nickname "the Lip," contemptuously refers to Kohl, who is Minister-President (governor) of the Rhineland-Palatinate, as "the Minister-President of where?"

This mudslinging has typified the West German election campaign, now in its final stretch; on Oct. 3 voters will go to the polls to decide whether to keep Schmidt or replace him with Challenger Kohl. As they come down to the wire, the two Helmuts--as they have been for months--are running neck and neck. Kohl, hoping to get a last-minute boost from the victory of Sweden's nonsocialists, last week exhorted his countrymen to "follow the Swedes."

Continued Detente. The campaign has been unusually abusive, in part because there are no substantive policy differences between the contenders. In foreign affairs, neither sees any alternatives to a strong NATO, close ties with the U.S., increased unity within the European Community and continued detente with the Soviet Union. In domestic matters, both Helmuts wholeheartedly support the free-market economy and profit incentives, while insisting that expansion of West Germany's already generous welfare state is possible only when there is enough money to pay for it.

Schmidt, 57, is unquestionably the more popular of the two. In one recent poll, 53% of the voters favored him as Chancellor, compared with 38% for Kohl. But the Social Democratic Party (S.P.D.) is not nearly so well liked. This could mean trouble for Schmidt; under the country's parliamentary system, West Germans vote for parties and individual representatives to the Bundestag, rather than directly for a Chancellor.

Much of the electorate seems to believe it is time for a change. The Social Democrats, in coalition with the small, liberal Free Democratic Party, have been in power for seven years. Schmidt, however, has been Chancellor only since May 1974; he took office when Brandt resigned after one of his closest aides was unmasked as an East German spy.

Another problem for the S.P.D. is its reputation, mostly undeserved, for being soft on Communism. Though Schmidt is an outspoken antiCommunist, many Germans are dismayed by what they now feel was the excessive willingness of Brandt to normalize relations with the regimes of Eastern Europe without sufficient quid pro quo.

The economy, ironically, is yet another liability for the Chancellor. Schmidt's deft policies enabled West Germany to weather the recent worldwide economic crisis with milder inflation than any other major Western industrial state's, but as the incumbent he is blamed by some voters for the persisting 4.1% unemployment and 4.6% inflation rates--both considered high in West Germany. An additional headache for him is the fiery rhetoric of the S.P.D.'s radical Young Socialist wing. Its demands, such as the full socialization of West Germany, terrify many of the country's blue-collar workers and most of its solid middle-class burghers.

Thanks largely to the more youthful, feisty image it now conveys, the Christian Democratic Union (C.D.U.) is more popular than it has been in nearly a decade. But Kohl is unable to capitalize fully on this advantage. Although an attractive candidate, he is a much less impressive public speaker than Schmidt. Also, even voters alienated from the S.P.D. worry about Kohl's obligations to Franz Josef Strauss, the burly former Defense Minister and boss of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian ally of the C.D.U.

Kohl has already said that if he is elected, Strauss will be named Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance. Many middle-of-the-road German voters, however, detest Strauss's shrill ultraconserva-tism and bully-boy tactics. S.P.D. campaigners have tried to portray the genial Kohl as beholden to the Bavarian. Schmidt scoffs that Kohl is the party's "waiter," merely serving up what Strauss the "cook" brews.

Youngest Ever. Kohl also lacks national experience. He has never been a member of the Bundestag, and until recently his political career was limited to his native Rhineland-Palatinate. But Kohl's achievements there are notable.

At 29 he won a seat in the state's Landtag (legislature), becoming its youngest member ever. Ten years later, when elected Minister-President, he was the youngest man in West Germany to hold so high a public office. When chosen C.D.U. chairman in 1973, he was the youngest ever to hold that post and has revitalized the party. If his current campaign succeeds, he will at 46 become the youngest Chancellor in West German history.

Most experts predict that the S.P.D. will probably lose some seats in the Oct. 3 election. The question is whether the loss will be great enough to bring down Schmidt's coalition majority in the Bundestag, currently composed of 230 S.P.D. and 41 Free Democrat Deputies, v. 225 for the C.D.U.-C.S.U. Despite active wooing by the Christian Democrats, the Free Democrats will probably stick with the S.P.D. Thus for Kohl to become Chancellor, the C.D.U.-C.S.u. combine may have to win an absolute majority (249) of the Bundestag's 496 voting seats --something no party has done since the 1957 C.D.U.-C.S.U. victory under the late Konrad Adenauer.

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