A Tight Race Shapes Up

Emerging triumphant from a dramatic but not too disorderly convention, President Ford has cut down Jimmy Carter's lead for the presidency. Ford now commands 40% of the vote and Carter 46%, with, 14% undecided. In June, just before the Democratic Convention, the President trailed his opponent 38%-47%. Once the glow from Kansas City wears off, Ford may drop farther behind, but three out of four voters expect the contest to be down to the wire, and a variety of indicators support their viewpoint. Such are the findings of a nationwide telephone survey of 1,544 registered voters, conducted by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc. between Aug. 20 and Aug. 24.

The poll makes clear that Ford's fate is tied to the national mood. If the country continues to prosper, his election chances will also improve. TIME'S State of the Nation Indicator, which measures people's confidence in America, has risen by 10% since June, to 44%. Of those who feel positive about the nation, 49% favor Ford while 37% are for Carter. If confidence in the U.S. plummets, then Carter benefits. Of those with negative feelings about the present-day U.S., 53% support the Democrat, 33% Ford.

Though the President is behind in the polls, his support appears to be more solid than Carter's. Of those supporting the President, 59% are convinced that he is the right man for the job, while 37% have their doubts. Only 45% of Carter's supporters are persuaded that he is the right man, and 52% have reservations. Yet the President cannot take too much comfort from this comparison, since his voters are less likely to show up at the polls. Those classified as "most likely to vote" favor Carter over Ford, 53%-37%. Moreover, 57% of all voters see Carter as the likely winner, while 34% think Ford will take it.

The best thing Ford has going for him seems to be, well, Jimmy Carter. The Georgian is still an enigma to much of the public, including many of his own supporters. Fully 65% of the Ford voters cite their doubts about Carter as a very important reason in making their selection. That reason leads the list of others for supporting the President: he is at least a known quantity (54%), he has more experience (52%), he has been an effective President (50%). Only 15%, however, consider the fact that he is a Republican to be an important element in their choice.

Working against the President is the fact that he pardoned Richard Nixon, an act that, according to the Yankelovich summary, "continues to hang like a cloud over him." He is faulted for this by 51% of the respondents. Another 51% feel he cannot deal with Congress, while 44% say he is too soft on the Russians--a rebuke to the policy of detente and of Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. For 39% of the voters, Ford is too close to business--a standard complaint about Republican candidates; 36% believe he is a weak President; and 32% think he is too conservative. Confidence in Ford remains low; 20% indicate a great deal of confidence in his handling of the economy, 16% in his management of foreign affairs.

The strongest reason for supporting Carter is that it is time for a change--a feeling shared by 81% of Carter voters. The next most important reason (63%) is that the Democratic candidate is considered to be more interested in the little man; 61% think that he offers the promise of a fresh, new start; 55% believe he will be more effective in getting things done. Finally, only 22% cite the fact that he is a Democrat.

Carter's chief liability is no surprise: fuzziness on the issues, a charge that is now being raised by the Republicans. It is a criticism made by 51% of the voters. Next on the list of debits, 48% feel that he overpromises; 45% think he changes his stand depending on his audience; 40% believe he is too much of an unknown. In what may seem to be a contradiction, 39% say he is too inexperienced while 37% feel he is too sure of himself. One complaint suggests a residue of anti-Southern prejudice: 23% are persuaded that he does not understand regions outside the South.

Carter's prospects brighten on the issues. Even though various polls have shown a conservative trend in America, people do not seem to have changed their minds substantially on bread-and-butter matters. Inflation is still seen as a predominant concern. But more voters place the creation of jobs (51%) ahead of curbing inflation even at the risk of continued high unemployment (43%) as the country's top priority. A Government guarantee of a job for everyone who wants to work is supported 56%-37%. Such a majority suggests that Ford either does not have a surefire issue in his fight against inflation or has not properly explained it to the country. Another issue benefiting Carter is national health insurance; an overwhelming 61%-23% favor enactment of such a program. There is also a whopping 65%-30% majority for registration of all handguns, a position that Carter has taken and Ford has opposed.

Ford is helped by the fact that voters are well disposed toward the free-market system and are not hostile to business. While 39% feel that more federal regulation of business would help the economy, 59% do not. In contrast to the attitude of the Democratic-controlled Congress, voters want to end price controls on oil and natural gas by 49%-38%. They divide almost evenly on whether to trim existing social programs in order to balance the federal budget. The President is on the popular side of the busing issue, with 51 % favoring a constitutional amendment banning the practice and 39% opposed. The survey suggests, however, that candidates need not bend over backward to appease antiabortionists. A constitutional amendment banning abortion is disapproved 55%-33%.

There are some surprises in geographic breakdowns of the two candidates' support. Neither is running quite as strongly as expected in his home territory. Ford lags behind Carter 48%-40% in the Midwest--an indication thai Ford's choice of Robert Dole as his running mate makes good political sense Carter, on the other hand, leads Ford by the same percentage in the South--a sign that the area may not be invulnerable to G.O.P. inroads. Carter apparently runs strongest in New England, where he wallops his rival 51%-31%. He also leads Ford by 49%-36% in the Louisiana-Texas-Oklahoma-Arkansas area. Ford makes up for lost ground in the Far West and the Mountain States, where he enjoys his only regional edge. 41%-40%.

The President seems to have unified his party behind him--a considerable feat considering the bitterly contested primaries. He has the backing of 76% of his party's voters, including seven out of ten Republicans who preferred Ronald Reagan; 14% give Carter their support. Carter, on the other hand, is supported by 66% of Democrats; 21% defect to Ford. Independents split almost down the middle: 41% for Carter, 39% for Ford. The President will have to make sizable gains among this group if he is going to win the election. He has also lost some of his natural constituency, since 33% of the voters who call themselves conservative favor Carter--an abnormally large percentage for a Democratic candidate. Carter is still viewed as a moderate or a conservative by a majority of voters, an advantage he might quickly lose if he drifts too far leftward. Moderates prefer Carter over Ford 51%-35%, while liberals and radicals favor him 66%-22%.

The Democratic candidate is running better than usual among Protestants, who as a rule support the Republican by a wide margin. Carter has 43% of the Protestant vote, to Ford's 45%. Despite rumblings of discontent, the Jewish vote seems as firmly wedded as ever to the Democrats; Carter enjoys a 67%-20% lead. Among nonwhite minorities, Carter is ahead 66%-24%. But he is not doing as well as he should with Catholic voters. With 48%-37% of the vote, he lags considerably behind the traditional Democratic nominee.

Carter also appears to have the youth vote and much of the middle-aged vote, for that matter. He is a 2-to-l favorite of people under 25. Not until voters reach 50 do they begin to prefer the President. Carter leads his rival 48%-40% among male voters, 44%-40% among females. Professionals and executives support the Democrat 45%-42%; he is also preferred by blue-collar workers 55%-32%. But Ford is favored by white-collar workers, 47%-40%. So far, the contest is a one-on-one affair--other personalities do not seem to make much difference. Voters thought Mondale was a slightly better vice-presidential choice than Dole, but then only one out of two voters was familiar with either candidate or his views. The American Independent Party chose its candidate after the poll was conducted, but the impact of Eugene McCarthy, who has been campaigning for some time, is limited. The survey indicates that he will attract 10% of Carter's supporters, 8% of Ford's and 31% of the undecided. Only in a very close election could McCarthy tip the balance. But then the election could be very close.

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