Toward Independence

If wishes were horses and beggars could ride, South Africa would keep control of Namibia (South West Africa), the onetime League of Nations mandated territory that it has ruled since 1920. Not only does Namibia produce some $300 million worth of minerals a year (diamonds, uranium, copper, lead), but it also serves as a partial buffer against the black states to the north.

Last year, however, the United Nations gave South Africa an ultimatum: devise an independence timetable for Namibia by Aug. 31, 1976, or face U.N. sanctions. Reluctantly agreeing to call a constitutional conference, South Africa still hoped to preserve white power by turning Namibia into a federation that would be dominated by its 90,000 whites (who compose 10.6% of the territory's 850,000 inhabitants). But the South West African People's Organization (SWAPO), representing much of the powerful Ovambo tribe that makes up 46% of Namibia's population, was determined to form the new government on its own terms. In the meantime, it waged guerrilla warfare against the existing regime from bases in Angola and Zambia.

Eventually Namibia's white moderates convinced South Africa's Prime Minister John Vorster that the only way to reduce the U.N. heat on South Africa itself was to give Namibia genuine independence. Last week, after Vorster called in the leader of Namibia's white conservatives for some heavy persuasion, the constitutional conference reached a measured compromise. After almost a year of discussion, the twelve different ethnic groups in the territory --eight black, one white and three of mixed race--settled on Dec. 31, 1978, as the date for Namibian independence. A multiracial interim government--probably to be headed by Clemens Kapuuo, a Herero tribal chief, and Dirk Mudge, a white rancher--will draft a constitution, organize elections and oversee the transfer of power. The non-white majority at the conference had pressed for independence by next June 30, but in the end agreed to wait an extra 18 months in return for the kind of one-man, one-vote system it wanted. SWAPO predictably denounced the agreement, but from now on it will have to fight a government that is working toward multiracial, apartheid-free independence.

South Africa remains in a strong position to influence Namibia's future policies. For one thing, Namibia is critically short of water and electricity, and will have to acquire them from its powerful neighbor. Besides, South Africa provides practically all of Namibia's imports. And it will still control Walvis Bay, the only good port on Namibia's Atlantic coastline, which South Africa has held as a separate entity since 1910. Small wonder, then, that the new Namibian government is expected to sign a security agreement allowing South African troops to be based on Namibian soil. The troops will defend the new government against SWAPO guerrilla raids. More important from South Africa's viewpoint, they will preserve Namibia's status as a buffer to the north.

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