Again, Connally for Veep?

Whatever the outcome of the epic Ford-Reagan struggle, the No. 2 spot on the ticket appears to be increasingly within the grasp of a talented and tainted Texan who can outdazzle either Republican--and just possibly the Democratic ticket as well. The prospect of John Connally as a candidate for Vice President evokes emotions ranging from outright delight to abject despair, for few politicians engender less neutrality than Connally, the millionaire international lawyer, former Governor and Treasury Secretary whose assets and liabilities are formidable.

The Texas twang that most political antennas are picking up whenever speculation turns to a Veep for Ford or Reagan has these origins:

> As his prospects of winning the presidential nomination ebbed, Ronald Reagan strongly reiterated that he would not accept the vice-presidential nomination "under any circumstances."

> Surveys of Republican delegates showed heavy support for Connally, now 59, as the vice-presidential candidate. A poll by the Associated Press gave Connally 224 votes, Reagan 97 and Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee 93.

> Connally, whose strict neutrality in the Ford-Reagan contest has kept the doors to both camps ajar, coyly allowed that he would consider the vice-presidential nomination if assured of a major role in the Administration.

> Senator Barry Goldwater gave him a boost, saying, "John Connally of Texas is a man that to me knows more about American business, American foreign policy, American defense, and how to get it across to the people than probably any other man in America--including the President."

Hyperbole and polls aside, Connally needs only one vote--that of the presidential nominee. Some confidants of both Ford and Reagan reckon that Connally could be the most electric No. 2 that either man could choose. Reagan's advisers say Connally would be a "very acceptable" running mate. Notes one top aide: "I'd love to see Connally take on Jimmy Carter." White House and Ford committee aides report that Connally support runs especially strong among Reagan backers. Thus Ford could partly mollify the conservative Reagan wing by tapping Connally.

In addition to his legendary campaign skills and mastery of the sulfurous political putdown, Connally could give Ford or Reagan a fighting chance to carry Texas, where the Carter-Mondale ticket now seems well ahead. Connally could also help the Republicans in some Southern states, notably Mississippi, Florida, South Carolina and Virginia.

But Ford advisers have been split over whether the President should select a conservative vice-presidential candidate, the better to attack the liberal Carter-Mondale slate, or whether he should pick a moderate in hope of attracting independent and Democratic voters. Connally, with his ties to Texas oil interests and his wheeler-dealer image, might not have enough appeal beyond the confines of the Republican right.

Most informed speculation now focuses on six prospects. The group is headed by Reagan and Connally and includes Tennessee Senators Baker and Bill Brock, Iowa Governor Robert Ray and House Minority Leader John Rhodes of Arizona. All except Baker and Ray are well to the right of center. Baker is known for his role as vice chairman of the Senate Watergate committee and is an impressive campaigner. He is also acceptable to all wings of the party. Brock is highly regarded but little known. Ray is personally close to Ford, chairman of the convention platform committee--and also obscure in national terms. Rhodes is a nonabrasive conservative with slight appeal outside the South and West. Missing from the lineup are such more or less liberal favorites as Nelson Rockefeller and Commerce Secretary Elliot Richardson, who have fared poorly in delegate polls.

Arrogant and Abrasive. For all his charm and abilities, Connally has many drawbacks. He would have scant appeal to voter blocs that are also cool to Ford and Reagan: blacks, organized labor, the Spanish speaking and blue-collar workers. He also seems considerably less attractive to voters in general than to Republican party workers. In a nationwide TIME-Yankelovich survey of 1,048 registered voters in June, 29% said they would be less likely to opt for the Republican ticket if Connally were the vice-presidential candidate; only 19% claimed they would be more inclined to support the G.O.P. if he were aboard; the rest said it would make no difference or were unsure.

His record would certainly become a contentious campaign issue. As Treasury Secretary under President Nixon in 1971-72, Connally's quick intelligence and grasp of economic affairs impressed the experts. He designed the strict wage and price controls that temporarily slowed inflation but in the long run were ineffective, partly because Government directives shifted so often. Though America's European allies grudgingly admire his shrewdness in ramming through the first devaluation of the dollar in 37 years, in order to start reversing the long string of U.S. payments deficits, they almost unanimously consider Connally to be devious, arrogant and abrasive. West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt is furious with him. Many other leaders still bridle at a remark attributed to Connally in 1971: "What Europe needs is a good kick in the ass."

Nixon Link. At home, many Republicans cannot accept Connally because he is a backslid Democrat, a Lyndon Johnson confidant who switched parties in 1973, opportunistically figuring that Nixon would help him win the 1976 presidential nomination. Indeed, he was Nixon's first choice to succeed Spiro Agnew in 1973, until it became clear that Congress would not confirm him.

He is also tainted by his indictment on charges that he accepted $10,000 from a large milk cooperative for helping persuade Nixon to raise milk price supports in 1971. Connally was acquitted by a U.S. district court jury in Washington. Still, one Ford adviser concedes, "some of us would hold our breath for the whole campaign, fearing that some new evidence might come out about the milk scandal. It may be contrary to the system of justice, since he was acquitted, but there are still a lot of folks with a gut feeling that John Connally was guilty as sin."

To some extent, the shadow that lingers over Connally can be attributed to a number of court rulings that hampered the prosecution. For one example: Judge George L. Hart refused to allow evidence to be introduced at the trial showing that Connally once promised Texas oil to President Nixon, evidence prosecutors felt would demonstrate to the jury that Connally had been accustomed to wheeling and dealing. In any case, if Connally is on the Republican ticket, his close ties to Nixon would make Watergate much more of a campaign issue, without the Democrats even having to mention it. He would also be hard put to explain his public statement that Nixon should have destroyed the White House tapes.

These deficits do not diminish Connally's ambition. He has kept highly visible in recent weeks by speaking at Republican fund raisers and heading a committee that tried to encourage anti-Communist voting in the Italian elections. He plans to attend his very first Republican convention on Aug. 16 in Kansas City. There his personal magnetism and political savvy might just stampede the convention--and the nominee.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.