Of Food and Water

Three months ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's economists predicted that retail prices of food would rise only slightly this year. Last week they backed up that welcome forecast. According to the department's spring "crop production" report for 1976, the nation's corn crop will reach a record 6.55 billion bu. this year. Since corn is a key livestock feed, its abundance should help to hold down the price of meat. An equally important crop will do almost as well: the wheat harvest should come in at a near record 2.04 billion bu. This torrent of grain will not cause a glut that will harm farm prices, however, because the U.S.S.R. and drought-stricken Europe stand ready to buy the U.S. surpluses.

Some grim spots nonetheless mar the glowing predictions. The nation's harvest of oats will plummet 24% below last year's, to 499 million bu.--the lowest level in 95 years--and the output of barley will drop 19%, to 311 million bu. Part of the reason is that the largest oats- and barley-producing states are bedeviled by drought. Most agricultural counties in the Dakotas, Wisconsin and Minnesota are critically dry; many have been declared disaster areas. The situation is so bad for farmers, says Agronomist Howard Wilkins of North Dakota State University, that "Santa Claus isn't going to come this year."

The drought extends back almost a year, right through a mild winter with little snow and a dry spring. Now the subsoil is starved for moisture. South Dakota's grasslands, for example, never had a chance to turn green; they are sere and yellow. Crops planted in the spring--oats, barley, durum, hard red wheat and even some corn--have been stunted by the scorching sun. Under normal conditions, they would be knee-high by this time. In many cases, they have, in fact, grown barely six inches tall.

Desperate farmers are saving what they can. Instead of getting the usual 40 to 50 bu. of barley an acre, many are reporting yields as low as 10 bu. Dairy farmers, short of hay and alfalfa, are turning the herds into their parched croplands to find forage. The knowledge that the U.S. has enough farms elsewhere to produce abundant foodstuffs for American consumers does not comfort the farmers. Only rain will help.

After more than a month of virtually no rain, the skies over much of Western Europe finally opened last week. But the downpours came too late to undo the damage already suffered by farmers in northwestern France, Belgium, southern England and northern Italy. Only an estimated 92 million tons of grain, instead of the anticipated 108 million tons, will be harvested this year, says Petrus Lardinois, the European Economic Community's farm commissioner. The sugar-beet crop will probably total 9.5 million tons--1.5 million tons below expectations. Lacking fodder, many farmers are slaughtering part of their livestock herds. There is a beef glut right now--and the chance of a shortage next winter.

The effects of the drought will spread beyond agriculture. Higher food prices will trigger escalator clauses in wage contracts, thus giving an added fillip to inflation. France and Italy may have to import more oil to make up for losses in hydroelectric capacity caused by rivers' running low. Whole forests have become tinder, and thousands of acres of precious trees have already burned. The only bright spot is in France's Bordeaux area, where vineyards are flourishing in the sun. Growers predict a memorable vintage for 1976.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.