The Election Could Be Close

Despite Jimmy Carter's wide lead over Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan in all the national polls, Americans are far from sold on the Georgian as their next President. Doubts about him persist even among registered Democrats: while 47% are satisfied with him as their party's nominee, 44% would prefer someone else. Thus the election may be far closer than predicted, particularly if the Republicans nominate Ford, who is far more popular among the voters than Reagan. This is the chief message of a nationwide telephone poll of 1,007 registered voters conducted for TIME from June 21 to 24 by Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., an opinion-research firm.

The survey found that Carter's lead over Reagan has widened since the early primaries. If the election were held today, Carter would trounce him by 51% to 31%, up from 46% to 36% in a poll in March. But Carter's edge over Ford has remained almost the same since late

April, 47% to 38%. The reason seems to be Carter's failure to overcome the antagonism of many Democrats and independents, particularly those who have liberal views on the issues.

Among the Democrats and independents who would like next week's convention to nominate someone else, 62% regard Carter's positions as fuzzy, and 58% believe that he changes them depending on his audience. More than a third of this group fault him for lack of experience in national office, and 40% feel that he does not understand regions of the country outside the South. By contrast, there is not much concern about Carter's evangelical religious beliefs or lack of a sense of humor.

Of five possible Democratic nominees for Vice President, Senator Frank Church of Idaho emerged as the most popular, followed by Senators Adlai Stevenson of Illinois, Walter Mondale of Minnesota and John Glenn of Ohio and Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts. A net of 14% of those polled said they would be more likely to vote for Carter if Church were on the ticket; any one of the other four men made much less difference to them. Church would strengthen Carter in those regions where he needs help the most: the West and Midwest.

On the Republican side, the poll found that Reagan's aggressive campaign has cut into Ford's support among the party's rank and file; he now leads Reagan among Republicans 53% to 36%, down from 65% to 27% in April. Reagan has also persuaded significant numbers of voters that Ford is "too soft" on the Russians (a view held by 45% of all voters interviewed), has no program for the country (38%), and has been a weak President (37%). Moreover, 45% are still upset about Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon.

But Ford remained a much stronger potential candidate than Reagan, even in the Sunbelt states. For example, in the West, Ford's support was almost the same as Carter's (42% to 44%), while Reagan trailed the Georgian 37% to 46%. In the Midwest, Ford led Carter, 43% to 41%, but Reagan was far behind Carter, 34% to 47%.

Large numbers of voters also have serious reservations about Reagan. Among them: 40% feel he does not understand foreign policy; 37% fear that he might get the U.S. into a war. Moreover, the poll suggested that many Republicans will defect to Carter if Reagan becomes the nominee. Among Republicans who back Ford, only 36% say that Reagan would be an acceptable nominee. In contrast, 64% of Reagan's supporters regard Ford as an acceptable candidate if the Californian loses the nomination.

For many Republicans, the best solution would be to have both candidates on the same ticket; 37% say that they would be more likely to vote for Ford if Reagan is his running mate, even though Reagan insists there is "no way" that he would run with Ford. Asked about four other possible nominees as Vice President, Republicans ranked Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee as their second choice, followed by Commerce Secretary Elliot Richardson, former Treasury Secretary John Connally and Vice President Nelson Rockefeller. But Baker and Richardson made a Republican ticket more attractive to the important independent voters, while the idea of Reagan, Connally or Rockefeller as a vice-presidential candidate turned them off. The survey found that none of the possible choices for Vice President would strengthen a Republican ticket headed by Reagan.

Upbeat Mood. Though Republican voters prefer a Ford-Reagan ticket, the poll showed that among all voters such a pairing would run behind a Carter-Church ticket 39% to 47%. That would be about the same outcome as a hypothetical contest between Ford and Carter without running mates.

If Ford gets the nomination, his chances of winning the election will depend largely on whether he can persuade Americans that the economy is really improving. Of those questioned, 44% now rank the economy as a more important issue than "moral leadership"; 35% thought it was the other way around. Inflation worries 47% of those surveyed; only 23% are deeply disturbed about unemployment, down seven points since April. The economy and leadership rank far ahead of all others as the most important issues, including crime (12%), taxes (8%), Big Government (6%), busing (4%), the Middle East (3%), pollution (2%), racial problems (2%) and the oil companies (1%).

A composite of questions designed to measure the national mood found that the proportion of Americans who feel things are going well in the country and are optimistic about the future has leveled off since March at 34%. Ford obviously is not getting across his message that the nation has rebounded from war, Watergate and recession. If he does so, and if he wins the nomination, he could make the election a horse race. Among voters in an upbeat mood, he runs ahead of Carter 53% to 35%.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.