Lining Up to Succeed Kissinger

An armor-plated Cadillac goes with the job, and instant call on a 707 or Learjet. The salary is $60,000. The executive suite is the grandest in Washington, with half a museum's worth of Early American furniture, sweeping views from a vast eighth-floor terrace, and a chamber that can take 200 for sitdown dinner. It is not the pay and the perks, however, which have hopeful Democrats lining up two abreast to be Henry Kissinger's successor. The office of U.S. Secretary of State is probably the most powerful appointive office in the world. And there were moments when Dr. Kissinger seemed to be making it the most powerful office of any sort, appointive, elective, hereditary or whatever.

If Jimmy Carter is elected President he will not be looking for another Kissinger. He does not think of himself as a rustic in need of a mentor in world affairs. Though the grand total of his officeholding experience is four years in the Georgia legislature and four years as Governor, he is not in awe of foreign policy experts. He is intellectually attracted to foreign policy problems, and sees the world arena as a very large part of the White House franchise.

Meanwhile he is welcoming the advice, often sought, sometimes unsolicited, of the whole imposing Democratic Foreign Policy Establishment, and putting its members to work on speeches, position papers, background studies. He is said to see some safety in numbers, in keeping all these influential people busy and hopeful, and also finds their ideas useful. The things that "really bug him," according to one Democrat who sometimes talks foreign policy with him, are people claiming to be advisers who aren't, and anybody visibly "running" for Secretary of State.

Jacksonian Doctrine. Not noticeably running, but possibly figuring in Carter's calculations, are three of his recent rivals for the Democratic nomination. They would all fit neatly with the speculation that the next Secretary of State (whoever is President) should be a politician capable of improving the frayed relations between Congress and the State Department. Senator Scoop Jackson turned down offers of State and Defense from President Nixon, but might be ready now for a change of pace; his hard-line foreign policy views may not be entirely congenial to Carter, but a good deal of Jacksonian doctrine was written into the Democratic platform last week. On the softer side -perhaps too soft -is Frank Church of Idaho, who has long experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Then there is always Hubert Humphrey, already a world figure, a centrist in foreign policy, and articulate to say the least. But Humphrey may be more interested in succeeding Mike Mansfield as Senate Majority Leader.

Not elected politicians, but seasoned Washington hands, are three highly capable and available lawyers. Cyrus Vance, 59, was Secretary of the Army and Deputy Secretary of Defense under Kennedy and Johnson, and a special negotiator on Cyprus, Korea and Viet Nam. Vance, according to TIME'S diplomatic editor Jerrold Schecter, is leading in the early chart. "He has a smooth, low-keyed public style that appeals to Carter, who does not intend to be overshadowed by his Secretary of State. Vance, is solid and cautious. One colleague who recently spent a month in China with Vance said: 'I never could find out what he thought about anything.' "

George Ball, by contrast, has been a prolific public critic of Nixon-Kissinger-Ford foreign policy. He has been especially skeptical about Kissinger's step-by-step diplomacy in the Middle East. Ball, 66, was Under Secretary of State under J.F.K. and L.B.J., an in-house critic of the Viet Nam policy, and briefly U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Some Carter staffers say Ball is "running too hard" for Secretary.

Paul Warnke, 56, was also a Viet Nam dove, was an Assistant Secretary of Defense in the L.B.J. era, and is now a law partner of Democratic Elder Statesman Clark Clifford, a potent adviser to all Democratic Presidents -and Presidents-elect -since Harry Truman. Warnke and Vance (but not Ball) are members of Carter's 28-member Foreign and Defense Policy Task Force.

Vance, Warnke, Ball -and Carter -are members of the Trilateral Commission, organized in 1973 by David Rockefeller. It was in this group of about 200 Western European. North American and Japanese private citizens that Jimmy Carter first met many of the U.S. foreign policy community.

The original director of the Trilateral Commission, and now the leading scholar in the Carter foreign policy entourage, is the brilliant Polish-born Zbigniew Brzezinski, 48, of Columbia University. His admirers consider Brzezinski at least as brainy as Kissinger and more stable in temperament. Two foreign-born professors in succession is improbable, however. "Zbig" could well be National Security Affairs adviser (in which case the Secretary of State would not lead an entirely relaxed life).

Congressman Andrew Young of Atlanta, an intimate Carter friend, cautions against assuming that anybody now working for Carter will necessarily be rewarded. Says Young: "Carter does not hand out nickels after a campaign." Charles Kirbo, the Atlanta lawyer who is Carter's closest friend, says, "Jimmy is bold in naming people."

Carter has said that there will be many women and blacks in his Administration, and it could be that he has in mind more than the traditional "minority" appointments in housing, welfare, etc. State could be a real stunner.

There might be a Republican or two in a Carter Cabinet; as in the Nixon bid to Jackson, it can be dramatic politics to offer State to the opposition party. Thus Elliot Richardson, Nelson Rockefeller and Brother David all get "mentioned." But a Republican seems implausible. Says one Carter watcher: "I don't think Jimmy's that mean."

Richardson really belongs on the Gerald Ford list, if he gets elected, and Rocky too. Or Ford might go to the versatile John Connally, 59, of Texas, if he hasn't already used him for Vice President, although Connally is anathema to many of America's allies. Another very skillful politician, also claiming to enjoy private life, is Ford's old congressional crony Melvin Laird, 53, formerly Secretary of Defense. Another friend from House days is the genial William Scranton, 58, former Governor of Pennsylvania, envoy to the Middle East, now Ambassador to the U.N. Ford keeps insisting, however, that Kissinger can have the job as long as he wants it. Kissinger has said that "on the whole" he would prefer to leave after the election.

He can count on leaving if Reagan is the next President. If Reagan has reached the point of drawing up a list, it probably has Connally and Laird on it. Reagan knows some Ph.D.s too. One of his principal foreign policy brain-trusters is Glenn Campbell, 52, Director of the Hoover Institution on War. Revolution and Peace at Stanford. The likeliest Reagan Secretary of State might be ex-Professor, ex-CIA Director, ex-Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger.

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