Socialism With a Stone Face

A wry little riddle is circulating in Lisbon these days about General Antonio Ramalho Eanes, 41, who has stepped down as army Chief of Staff to be a candidate in Portugal's June 27 presidential election. Question: "Why does Eanes always wear dark glasses?" Answer: "To hide his monocle." In fact, Eanes no longer wears his ominously familiar shades these days, but there are nonetheless several points to the quip. One is that Eanes (rhymes with Janice) is now the overwhelming favorite to become the country's next President, a post held by monocled General Antonio de Spinola until he was ousted by his fellow officers in a bloodless coup in September 1974. Another is that several key aides of the exiled right-wing general are involved in Eanes' campaign, which has been endorsed by the country's three largest parties: Mario Scares' Socialists, the Popular Democrats and the conservative Center Social Democrats.

Absolute Majority. Eanes, according to one recent poll, may receive at least 33% of the vote in the election. Although about 38% of the electorate is still undecided, the current Premier, Admiral Jose Pinheiro de Azevedo--who is not backed by any political party but is counting on his personality to put him across--is favored by 14% of the voters; ultra-leftist Army Major Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho should get 11 % of the vote. The Communist candidate, Octavio Pato, the party's No. 2 man and considered more acceptable than Stalinist Party Boss Alvaro Cunhal, trails with a mere 3%. If Eanes does not get an absolute majority, he will then face a runoff election, probably with Pinheiro de Azevedo--a contest that everyone expects the former Chief of Staff to win handily.

The election is Portugal's third in the past 14 months, and potentially its most significant. In April 1975, the voters chose a Constituent Assembly that drafted a new constitution. A year later, they elected 263 members of a new Parliament. Now they will pick the country's first freely elected President in nearly half a century--an act that most Portuguese hope will bring an end to the tension and sporadic violence that has besieged the country since the revolution of April 1974.

If Eanes becomes President, it will be less because the voters like him than because they fear the alternatives. A stern, aloof, ramrod-stiff disciplinarian, Eanes served in all three of Portugal's former African territories, joined the 1973 so-called "captains' revolt" against Lisbon's effort to contain the black struggle for independence, and actively supported Spinola at the time of the April revolution. Eanes is credited with lancing the rebellion last November that nearly led to a leftist dictatorship.

But popularity has not followed widespread gratitude. The rallies organized by supporting parties on his behalf have been poorly attended. Much of the front-line campaigning for the general has been carried on by his civilian supporters. The most notable is Scares, whom Eanes has promised to appoint Premier if he wins.

According to one longtime political observer in Lisbon, "Scares wants socialism with a human face. With Eanes. he will get socialism with a stone face." In fact, the general's real political convictions are obscure. His speeches make clear that he regards the Communists as the biggest threat to Portugal's stability. At times he sounds like a man of the left --most notably in his profuse promises to support the constitution, which is a virtual blueprint for advanced socialism. Yet there are qualifications in his reformist promises that seem to have been inspired by the right-wing parties behind him. Eanes supports the workers --but only workers who truly contribute to the nation. He supports their right to strike--except when work stoppages are politically inspired. He wants to keep the army out of politics--but would use it to end any threats to democracy.

If he becomes President, Eanes will have his hands full. Unemployment --partly because of an influx of 700,000 refugees from Portugal's former African territories--hovers at 15%, the annual inflation rate is 25%, and foreign reserves are dwindling at the rate of $3.5 million a day. Whole sectors of the economy have been sporadically paralyzed by strikes of leftist-led unions. Foreign investment has all but dried up, although one Western European businessman believes that "business will pick up after the elections because we will know the rules." No one doubts that under Eanes, whatever rules are laid down will be strictly enforced--and for that fact alone thousands of Portuguese, weary of chaos, will be grateful.

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