Carter: Slowed but Still Probable

As the silvery Metroliner highballed through New Jersey, Jimmy Carter slumped deeper in his seat and tried to nap. His blue eyes closed, then flickered open, closed again and opened again. Finally Carter gave up and gazed blankly out the window, his brow furrowed more deeply than usual. He had just won three primaries, finished second in three others and picked up about 140 delegates --five times more than any other Democrat that week. It seemed a good week's work, boosting his score in the primaries to 16 victories in 25 attempts and his delegate total by conservative measure to 865, or about 60% of the votes that he needs for the nomination.

But Carter was troubled by a perplexing problem: despite the impressive arithmetic, pundits and party leaders were focusing on his series of primary losses. Even his much larger than expected totals in Arkansas (63%), Kentucky (60%) and Tennessee (78%) --which amount to home turf for a Southerner--could not make up for the psychological impact of his defeats last week. He lost Idaho to the state's Democratic Senator, Frank Church, and Nevada to its favorite neighbor, California Governor Jerry Brown.

Thin Bench. Most damaging to Carter's campaign was the setback in Oregon, where he had lost a once comfortable lead in the closing weeks to Church. Carter's Oregon campaign manager, Tom Mackey, an advance man for Robert Kennedy in 1968, ascribed the loss to insufficient campaigning and battle fatigue among the staffers caused by Carter's strategy of entering every primary except West Virginia's. Said Mackey: "I had the feeling that our people were running out of gas. With Bobby, the bench was very strong. The Carter cadre has always been thin. That's becoming a problem now." In contrast, Church campaigned vigorously as the man from next door and won with 34% of the vote to 27% for Carter.

At the same time, Brown, who finished third with 25%, mounted a frenzied, last-minute write-in campaign that appealed strongly to young voters. Even though he was clearly disappointed with the outcome, his third-place finish was a stunning achievement, demonstrating anew that he is the phenomenon of the late primaries. Brown won nine delegates (to 14 for Church and eleven for Carter), but he is expected to capture a majority of California's delegates on

June 8, giving him a final total of about 200. On the other hand, Church doubtless will add more delegates to his total of 48--particularly in Montana, where he was favored to win this week--but will probably finish far back in the running.

Carter disagreed with the conclusion that the Oregon defeat, combined with previous losses in Nebraska and Maryland and his squeaker win in Michigan, meant that his campaign was stalled. But he reluctantly acknowledged a "psychological setback in momentum." The damage from the string of defeats was readily reflected in several caucus states as they continued selecting delegates. Cooled off about Carter, Missouri Democrats gave him only 28 delegates instead of the 40 that he had reckoned on. A week earlier, he ended up with only 23 pledged delegates in Virginia --17 fewer than anticipated--though at least ten of the state's 24 uncommitted delegates favor him. Similarly, even though he had handily won Vermont's nonbinding primary in March, state Democrats awarded him only three of their twelve delegates.

What Carter fears is that his rivals and party leaders--many of whom still are suspicious of him as an outsider --will try to give the nomination to someone else. Lately there has been renewed speculation among Democrats that Ted Kennedy, despite his denials, would accept a draft by the convention. TIME learned that the story started with supporters of Hubert Humphrey in an attempt to keep the anybody-but-Carter movement alive for the Minnesotan's benefit.

Rather than squelch the rumors, Kennedy fueled them by criticizing Carter for being "indefinite and imprecise" on the issues. Kennedy fears that Carter would not work for social and economic programs favored by liberals. Further, at Humphrey's 65th birthday celebration in Minneapolis last week, Kennedy joked about his political ambitions but did not deny them. In fact, he has not changed his mind about not wanting the nomination this year. Said a top Democrat: "He told me that he was just doing what he's doing to help Hubert, and I have no reason to doubt that what he said is the truth."

Most party leaders regard Carter as the probable nominee. Because of his setbacks, however, they sense that he cannot win the nomination without their help, and they want something in return. New York City Mayor Abraham Beame backed him last week. But Carter insists he is open to no deals that he "cannot tell the American people about."

His most persuasive argument with the leaders would be fresh primary victories. This week 56 delegates will be chosen in Montana, Rhode Island and South Dakota. But Carter is concentrating on the vastly more important "Super Bowl" next week, when 540 Democratic delegates will be elected in California, New Jersey and Ohio. He is expected to lose California to Brown but still pick up many of the state's delegates. In Ohio, he maintained his lead, which he was trying to widen by aggressive campaigning. But in New Jersey, his lead became more fragile when his opponents--a slate of uncommitted delegates--made a double-barreled endorsement of Humphrey and Brown.

Beyond Catching. By his own and other Democrats' reckoning, Carter will emerge from the primaries with 1,200 to 1,300 delegates, out of 1,505 needed to nominate. Most Democratic leaders think that such a total would put him beyond catching. After the primaries, he plans a strong effort to win the backing of uncommitted delegates as well as that of inactive candidates like Scoop Jack son. TIME Atlanta Bureau Chief James Bell learned that Carter has already approached George Wallace, whom he demolished in the South. Wallace made no promises but reportedly will release his 162 delegates just before or just after the first convention ballot. Most are expected to support Carter.

Thus for all the psychological setbacks, there was still a feeling of inevitability about Carter's nomination. According to the New York Times/CBS survey, he is the only Democrat who would now beat Gerald Ford and carry the South. The real surprise is the remarkable rise of Brown. No figures from the poll were disclosed, but the news organizations reported that while Ford bested both Brown and Humphrey, Brown would run almost as strongly as the Minnesota Senator.

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