Forecast: Famine?

Central Intelligence Agency "spooks" and analysts spend much of their time trying to learn about armaments in Africa, intrigues in Asia and other possible threats to U.S. security. But now the agency is concerning itself with another potential danger: a changing climate. In a report released last week, the CIA concluded the earth has entered a period of adverse weather that is already reducing food production and causing major economic problems throughout the world. The report warns that a changing climate could cause serious upheavals as famine-stricken nations seek--if necessary at the expense of their neighbors--to assure themselves of necessary food supplies.

The CIA's forecast is largely based on studies conducted over the past several years by climatologists at the University of Wisconsin. They project that the world's climate, which for several decades had been ideal for agriculture, is returning to the conditions that existed from 1600 to 1850. That period was a "Little Ice Age" characterized by lower temperatures, shorter growing seasons and periods of famine.

Drought-Prone. There is ample evidence, the CIA report contends, that the new era is already under way. In the early '60s crop failures hit India and Central Asia, causing major economic and political changes. India had to import massive quantities of U.S. grain, and poor farm yields in the Soviet Union undermined the power of Premier Nikita Khrushchev and contributed to his downfall. The Soviets also suffered agricultural disasters in 1972 and 1974. The drought-prone countries of sub-Saharan Africa have not yet recovered from a recent six-year period of little or no rain. Rice shortages hit Asia in 1974, while the vital monsoon rains came late to India. In 1974, after a bumper 1973 crop, excessive rain in the spring, summer drought and early frost caused a decline in the U.S. wheat crop.

Based on the Wisconsin studies, the CIA report concludes that a return to the conditions that prevailed during the Little Ice Age would reduce the frequency of India's monsoons and cause droughts on the subcontinent as often as every four years. This climatic change would also cause major crop failures and famine every five years in China and loss of the Soviet Union's wheat fields in Kazakhstan. Cooler temperatures could also cut crop production in Canada, as well as Northern Europe.

Some climatologists dispute whether there is, in fact, a cooling trend; they foresee instead a worldwide warming trend that could melt polar ice and raise the level of the oceans and possibly inundate coastal cities. But whatever their feelings about long-term trends, scientists generally agree that the world's climate is entering a period of more widely varying conditions that will make planning for agricultural production difficult. The experts are also worried about the impact of man-made pollution, which makes predictions based on historical weather cycles less reliable. "If humans interfere, we cannot say for sure that the climate will become worse," says Stephen Schneider, deputy head of the climate project at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "But it could be different, and different is likely to be worse because it is so unpredictable."

Schneider argues that the Federal Government should reverse its present policy against stockpiling and start building up reserves of food. His concern was echoed last week by other scientists and officials who testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the impact of world environment on foreign policy. Said Russell Train, director of the Environmental Protection Agency: "The stresses generated hi a hungry world will not stop at our borders. We are part of an interdependent world." Should there be major agricultural disasters in the U.S., Asia and the Soviet Union, warned Stanford University Biologist Paul Ehrlich, "our problems of foreign policy will quickly be converted into problems of military policy."

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