Toward an Election to Test the Nerves

There was apprehension but not much suspense last week as a weary Premier Aldo Moro opened a two-day Chamber of Deputies debate over the economic policy of his minority Christian Democratic government. The debate, leading toward a showdown vote of confidence, was to some extent a preplanned move to end a long-smoldering political crisis by killing off Moro's crippled one-party government. Battered by economic distresses, bribe scandals, and a spreading fight over legalized abortion, the 75-day-old government was moribund; even friendly opponents refused to vote for its survival and other politicians chided the Premier for prolonging the agony. One opera buff among them likened Moro's Cabinet to the soldiers' chorus in La Forza del Destino, which in one scene sings "Andiam, andiam, andiam" ("We're leaving, we're leaving, we're leaving") without ever quite getting offstage.

But finally the Moro government made its exit. "I have tried to avoid an alarming pause in the administration of power," said Moro, adding that he could no longer withstand the opposition he received. Without even bothering to call the confidence vote--defeat was, after all, a certainty--the Premier held a crisp last meeting with his Cabinet, then set off in his blue Alfa Romeo to tender his resignation to President Giovanni Leone at the Quirinale Palace. There Moro requested the showdown that he had maneuvered for weeks to avoid and that he had called "not our choice, but a rigorous and difficult duty." Moro recommended to Leone that he not try to form a new government but call general elections one year ahead of schedule. After thinking about it into the weekend, Leone agreed, and prepared to call a June election.

The stage was thus set for the most critical election Italy has faced in 30 years, one that would not only absorb 35 million Italian voters but also be closely watched throughout Europe and in much of the rest of the world as well. The same issues that toppled Moro--the weakened lira, rising inflation, unemployment and scandal--will be refought in the campaign. But the overwhelming issue facing the country is quite clear: Whether Italian voters, with their country's traditional center-left politics at a point of impasse, are prepared finally to allow the Communists to share national power. If the voters are ready for that--and chances are strong that they are--it will mark the first major Communist success in Western Europe in 30 years.

The campaign, predicts TIME Rome Bureau Chief Jordan Bonfante, "will force issues, heighten tensions and test nerves" as past elections rarely have. Ostensibly voters will choose from among nine parties; but in fact the campaign will be a three-way struggle among the Christian Democrats (D.C.), the Communist Party (P.C.I.) and the Socialists (P.S.I.). The makeup of any new government and the chances for the emergence of the long-heralded "historic compromise" in which Communists would finally move out of opposition and into a ruling coalition depend on how well each party does in the voting for the 630 Chamber of Deputies seats.

Miracle Needed. The Christian Democrats badly need a miracle to improve their current 267-seat representation in the Chamber of Deputies. The economy seems certain to worsen during the campaign, which will reflect on the incumbents. Meanwhile, the furor over allegations of Lockheed bribes to Italian politicians refuses to fade (TIME, May 3). Leaked and unsubstantiated U.S. Senate evidence suggested that payments were made to an unnamed Italian Premier in the late 1960s; Moro, Leone and Foreign Minister Mariano Rumor each held the job during that period, and all deny receiving bribes. Nonetheless, it has become a national pastime in Italy to speculate about the identity of the recipient of Lockheed's largesse, who turned up in the Senate documents under the code name Antelope Cobbler.

The Communists ought to enjoy an election that offers them so much campaign ammunition; paradoxically, the P.C.I, fears the vote almost as much as the Christian Democrats do. The timing, the Communists reckon, is unfortunate for them. They have not yet assimilated the big gains they made in regional elections last June; moreover, the party would prefer not to be spotlighted at a time when West Germany and the U.S. are also about to hold national elections in which Italian communism could be an issue. What the Communists want to do is to hold power, not merely gain it temporarily by a fluke, and they feel they are not yet in a position to win the political confidence of the mass of Italy's crucial middle-class Catholic voters.

They could well be right. Many politicians by now believe that the Italian Communists are evolving democratically and responsibly. But current polls indicate that while Party Boss Enrico Berlinguer is now the country's most trusted politician, many voters fear that if the Communists were to gain power, they would not relinquish it if subsequently defeated. In one recent poll, nearly 46% of those queried expressed this worry, while 24% were uncertain about whether the Communists could be trusted to play by the rules.

Opposition deputies charged last week that Moro's mournful preresignation speeches were actually the beginning of the Christian Democratic election campaign. In any case, with so little time before voting day, no party will lose time hitting the trail. The outcome of the vote is as yet uncertain, although some early polls go so far as to project the necessary 51% of seats split between Communists and Socialists. One thing, however, seems fairly clear: unless the P.C.I, unexpectedly collapses in June, it will be difficult to deny the Communists a part in any governing coalition.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.